We re-examine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modelling structural changes as sharp (with dummy variables) and smooth (with a Fourier approximation) process. The results show (i) more evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis when structural changes are taken into account and (ii) modelling the shifts with different approaches plays a crucial role for policy implications.
References
Adigüzel, U, Şahbaz, A., Özcan, C. C. and Nazlioğlu, Ş. (2014). “The Behavior of Turkish Exchange Rates: A Panel Data Perspective”, Economic Modelling, 42, pp. 117-185.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., Liu W. C. (2014). “Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity in 34 OECD Countries: Sequential Panel Selection Method”, Applied Economics Letters 21(18), pp.1283-1287.
Becker, R., Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2006). “A Stationarity Test in The Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis 27, pp. 381–409.
Carrion-I-Silvestre, J. L. and Sansó, A. (2007). “The KPSS Test with Two Structural Breaks”, Spanish Economic Review 9(2), pp. 105-127.
Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, pp. 1057-1072.
Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2012). “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey-Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”, Economics Letters 117, pp. 196-199.
Karagöz, K. ve Saraç, B. (2016). “Testing the Validity of PPP Theory for Turkey: Nonlinear Unit Root Testing”, Procedia Economics and Finance 38, pp. 458 – 467.
Kurozumi, E. (2002). “Testing for Stationarity with a Break”, Journal of Econometrics 108(1), pp. 63-99.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C.B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root”, Journal of Econometrics 54, pp. 159–178.
Lee, J., Huang, C. J. and Shin, Y. (1997). “On Stationary Tests in the Presence of Structural Breaks”, Economics Letters 55, pp. 165-172.
Narayan, P. K. and POPP, S. (2010). “A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time”, Journal of Applied Statistics 37(9), pp. 1425-1438.
Perron, P. (1989). “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica 57, pp. 1361-1401.
Sul, D., Phillips, P. and Choi, C. (2005). “Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 67(4), pp. 517-546.
Zivot, E. and Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economics- Statistics 10, pp. 251-270.
Structural Changes and Purchasing Power Parity in Turkish Exchange Rates
Year 2019,
Volume: 21 Issue: 1, 203 - 208, 20.03.2019
We re-examine the purchasing
power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modelling
structural changes as sharp (with dummy variables) and smooth (with a Fourier
approximation) process. The results show (i) more evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis
when structural changes are taken into account and (ii) modelling the shifts
with different approaches plays a crucial role for policy implications.
Adigüzel, U, Şahbaz, A., Özcan, C. C. and Nazlioğlu, Ş. (2014). “The Behavior of Turkish Exchange Rates: A Panel Data Perspective”, Economic Modelling, 42, pp. 117-185.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., Liu W. C. (2014). “Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity in 34 OECD Countries: Sequential Panel Selection Method”, Applied Economics Letters 21(18), pp.1283-1287.
Becker, R., Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2006). “A Stationarity Test in The Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis 27, pp. 381–409.
Carrion-I-Silvestre, J. L. and Sansó, A. (2007). “The KPSS Test with Two Structural Breaks”, Spanish Economic Review 9(2), pp. 105-127.
Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, pp. 1057-1072.
Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2012). “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey-Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”, Economics Letters 117, pp. 196-199.
Karagöz, K. ve Saraç, B. (2016). “Testing the Validity of PPP Theory for Turkey: Nonlinear Unit Root Testing”, Procedia Economics and Finance 38, pp. 458 – 467.
Kurozumi, E. (2002). “Testing for Stationarity with a Break”, Journal of Econometrics 108(1), pp. 63-99.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C.B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root”, Journal of Econometrics 54, pp. 159–178.
Lee, J., Huang, C. J. and Shin, Y. (1997). “On Stationary Tests in the Presence of Structural Breaks”, Economics Letters 55, pp. 165-172.
Narayan, P. K. and POPP, S. (2010). “A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time”, Journal of Applied Statistics 37(9), pp. 1425-1438.
Perron, P. (1989). “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica 57, pp. 1361-1401.
Sul, D., Phillips, P. and Choi, C. (2005). “Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 67(4), pp. 517-546.
Zivot, E. and Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economics- Statistics 10, pp. 251-270.
Küçükkaplan, İ., Ağır, H., Karul, Ç., Koncak, A. (2019). Structural Changes and Purchasing Power Parity in Turkish Exchange Rates. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), 203-208. https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.471934