Avrupa Birliğinde Ekonomik Krizler, Sosyal Koruma Politikaları ve Aile Yapılarının Dönüşümü: Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: Aile Özel Sayısı, 234 - 253, 19.10.2025

Burak Seyhan

https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.1718450

Abstract

Bu araştırma, Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkelerinde ekonomik krizlerin aile yapılarındaki dönüşüm üzerindeki etkisini panel veri yöntemiyle incelemektedir. Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak boşanma oranı kullanılırken; işsizlik oranı, kişi başına reel gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla (GSYH) ve sosyal koruma harcamaları bağımsız değişkenler olarak belirlenmiştir. 1995–2022 dönemine ait 27 AB ülkesini kapsayan panel veri seti kullanılarak yatay kesit bağımlılığı testi, katsayı homojenliği testi, panel birim kök testleri, panel eşbütünleşme analizleri ve uzun dönem katsayı tahminleri (FMOLS, DOLS, OLS) gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ayrıca nedensellik ilişkilerini test etmek amacıyla panel Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, işsizlik oranındaki artışın boşanma oranlarını yükselttiğini; sosyal koruma harcamalarının ise boşanmayı azalttığını göstermektedir. Kişi başına düşen reel GSYH'nin artışı da boşanma oranları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkiye sahiptir. Nedensellik analizleri, değişkenler arasında hem çift yönlü hem de tek yönlü ilişkilerin mevcut olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu sonuçlar, ekonomik belirsizliklerin aile birliğini zayıflattığını, sosyal refah harcamalarının ise koruyucu bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular doğrultusunda, sosyal koruma mekanizmalarının güçlendirilmesi ve istihdam odaklı makroekonomik politikaların aile yapılarının sürdürülebilirliği açısından önemi vurgulanmaktadır.

Keywords

Aile yapısı , ekonomik kriz , sosyal koruma , panel veri analizi , Avrupa Birliği

Economic Crises, Social Protection Policies and the Transformation of Family Structures in the European Union: Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of economic crises on the transformation of family structures in European Union (EU) countries through a panel data analysis approach. The divorce rate is used as the dependent variable, while the unemployment rate, real GDP per capita, and social protection expenditures are treated as independent variables. The analysis is based on a balanced panel dataset covering 27 EU member states over the period 1995 to 2022. The study applies several econometric tests including cross-sectional dependence, slope homogeneity, panel unit root, panel cointegration, and long-run estimations (FMOLS, DOLS, OLS). Additionally, panel Granger causality tests are conducted to examine the directionality of relationships between variables. Empirical findings suggest that an increase in unemployment significantly raises divorce rates, while higher social protection spending reduces them. Real GDP per capita is also found to have a statistically significant and positive effect on divorce. The causality results reveal both bidirectional and unidirectional relationships across variables. These outcomes imply that economic instability tends to weaken family cohesion, whereas well-designed social welfare policies act as a stabilizing force. Accordingly, the study emphasizes the critical importance of strengthening social protection systems and adopting employment-centered macroeconomic strategies to ensure the sustainability of family structures within the EU.

Keywords

Family structure , economic crisis , social protection , panel data analysis , European Union

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