Relationship Between Export, Import and Economic Growth in Turkey: Time Varying Causality Analysis Abstract

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 941 - 952, 31.05.2021

Selim Demez , Oktay Kızılkaya , İdris Turan

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.687027

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Import and export are the main determinants of the growth rates of an economy. For this reason, there are many theoretical and empirical studies about the existence of the relationship in this literature. But there is no consensus on the direction of the relation. In this study, the relationship between exports, imports and economic growth is investigated using quarterly data from the period 1971-2014 in Turkey. The relationship between the variables is analyzed with the bootstrap causality test proposed by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) and time-varying causality test under the assumption that the relationship between the variables changed over time.

Keywords

Export, Import, Economic Growth, Time-Varying Causality Test

Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

İthalat ve ihracat bir ekonominin büyüme oranlarının temel belirleyicilerindendir. Bu nedenle bu konu hakkında literatürde ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koyan birçok teorik ve ampirik çalışma yer almaktadır. Fakat ilişkinin yönü konusunda bir fikir birliği söz konusu değildir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de ihracat, ithalat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi 1998Ç2-2017Ç4 dönemi çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap nedensellik analizi ve değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin zamana bağlı olarak değişeceği varsayımı altında zamanla değişen nedensellik analizi ile incelenmiştir.

Keywords

İhracat, İthalat, Büyüme, Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Testi

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