Dış Borç ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Kamu ve Özel Sektör Dış Borçları Açısından BRICS-T Ülkeleri Analizi

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 839 - 863, 31.05.2021

Fazlı Yıldız Ersin Nail Sağdıç

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.867124

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1997-2019 yılları arasında BRICS-T ülkelerinde dış borç bileşenlerinin (Kamu ve özel sektör dış borçları) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişki Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup (PMG) Tahmincisi ile incelenmiştir. PMG tahmincisinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre tüm ülkeler bazında toplam dış borç, kamu dış borcu ve özel sektör dış borcunun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde uzun dönemde negatif etki gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde en yüksek olumsuz etkiye sahip borç bileşeni kamu dış borçlarıdır. Araştırmanın ampirik sonuçları, borçluluk düzeyi yüksek olan ülkelerin ekonomik büyüme olanaklarının kısıtlanacağını savunan “Borç Fazlası Hipotezi” ile uyumludur.

Keywords

Dış Borç, Ekonomik Büyüme, Kamu ve Özel Sektör Dış Borcu, Panel ARDL Analizi

The Relationship Between External Debt and Economic Growth: Analysis of BRICS-T Countries in Terms of Public and Private Sector External Debt

Abstract

In this study, the effect of external debt components (public and private sector external debt) on economic growth in BRICS-T for the 1997-2019 period is examined. Pooled Mean Group (PMG) Estimator method is used to determine the long term and short term relationship between the variables. According to the results based on PMG, it is determined that all debt components of BRICS-T countries have negative effect on economic growth in the long term. Moreover, public debt has the greatest negative impact on economic growth for these countries. These results are consistent with the “Debt Overhang Theory”, which argues that economic growth opportunities of countries with high debt levels will be restricted.

Keywords

External Debt, Economic Growth, Public and Private Sector External Debt, Panel ARDL Analysis

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