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Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Trade Openness and Economic Growth: The Case of Eastern European Countries

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 3, 2683 - 2706, 30.09.2022

Asım Kar Emre Kılıç Şevket Pazarcı

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1075306

Abstract

With the disintegration of the USSR, one of the most striking economic and political events of the last century, the Eastern European countries, which left the union and had a central planning economy, switched to a free market economy that they had not experienced before. Along with this political and economic change, Eastern European countries, under the influence of globalization trends in the same period, encountered trade liberalization processes and had a commercially open structure. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in 10 selected Eastern European countries over the period 1995-2020. According to the results of the time series analysis, a long-term relationship was determined between trade openness and economic growth in 3 countries (Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia). According to the results of the panel data analysis, no relationship was found between trade openness and economic growth.

Keywords

Trade Opennes Economic Growth Time Series Analysis Panel Data Analysis

References

  • Alam, K. J., & Sumon, K. K. (2020). Causal relationship between trade openness and economic growth: a panel data analysis of Asian countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(1), 118.
  • Alam, M. S. (1991). Trade orientation and macroeconomic performance in LDCs: an empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39(4), 839-848.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Niroomand, F. (1999). Openness and economic growth: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 6(9), 557-561.
  • Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley & Sons.
  • Banday, U. J., Murugan, S., & Maryam, J. (2021). Foreign direct investment, trade openness and economic growth in BRICS countries: evidences from panel data. Transnational Corporations Review, 13(2), 211-221.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The review of economic studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Chang, R., Kaltani, L., & Loayza, N. V. (2009). Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities. Journal of development economics, 90(1), 33-49.
  • Chang, Y. (2004). Bootstrap unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency. Journal of econometrics, 120(2), 263-293.
  • Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors. Journal of econometrics, 188(2), 393-420.
  • Dağdelen, İ. (2004). Liberalizasyon. Uluslararası İnsan Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(1), 1-66.
  • Dao, A. T. (2015). Trade Openness and Economic Growth, The Park Place Economist, 23(1), 44-62.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876.
  • Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. Enders, Walter (2015). Applied Econometric Time Series, Fourth Edition, Wiley University of Alabama.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Erdoğan, L., Tiryaki, A., & Ceylan, R. (2018). Türkiye'de Uzun Dönem Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicilerinin Ardl, Fmols, Dols ve Ccr Yöntemleriyle Tahmini. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 36(4), 39-57.
  • Gries, T., & Redlin, M. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth: a panel causality analysis. In International conferences of RCIE, KIET, and APEA, March (pp. 16-18).
  • Gül, E., & Kamacı, A. (2012). Dış Ticaretin Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business/Alanya Isletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(3).
  • Gül, E., Kamacı, A., & Konya, S. (2013). Dış ticaretin büyüme üzerine etkileri: Türk Cumhuriyetleri ve Türkiye örneği. Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 35, 1-12.
  • Harrison, A. (1996). Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries. Journal of development Economics, 48(2), 419-447.
  • Huchet‐Bourdon, M., Le Mouël, C., & Vijil, M. (2018). The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue. The World Economy, 41(1), 59-76.
  • Idris, J., Yusop, Z., & Habibullah, M. S. (2016). Trade openness and economic growth: A causality test in panel perspective. International Journal of Business and Society, 17(2).
  • Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1987). A test for normality of observations and regression residuals. International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique, 163-172.
  • Jayme, F.G. (2001). Notes on Trade and Growth. Texto Para Discussao. No:166.
  • Kaya, Z. & Şahin, L. (2015). Dış ticaret hacmi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin panel eşbütünleşme analiziyle değerlendirilmesi: BRIC ülkeleri (1995-2013), Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitü Dergisi, 7(13), .434-446.
  • Kurt, S. & Berber M. (2008). Türkiye’de Dışa Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 22(2), 57-79.
  • Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
  • Miller, S. M., & Upadhyay, M. P. (2000). The effects of openness, trade orientation, and human capital on total factor productivity. Journal of development economics, 63(2), 399-423.
  • Nazlioglu, S. 2021. “TSPDLIB: GAUSS Time Series and Panel Data Methods (Version 2.0).: Source Code. https://github.com/aptech/tspdlib
  • Oloyede, B. M., Osabuohien, E. S., & Ejemeyovwi, J. O. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth in Africa's regional economic communities: empirical evidence from ECOWAS and SADC. Heliyon, 7(5), e06996.
  • Omoke, P. C., & Opuala–Charles, S. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth nexus: Exploring the role of institutional quality in Nigeria. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1868686.
  • Özcan, C. C., Özmen, İ., & Özcan, G. (2018). Ticari Dışa Açıklığın Ekonomik Büyüme’ye Etkisi: Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (40), 60-73.
  • Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 119-143. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125.
  • Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of political economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
  • Sandalcılar, A. R. (2012). BRIC ülkelerinde ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasindaki ilişki: Panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(1), 161-179.
  • Silajdzic, S., & Mehic, E. (2017). Trade openness and economic growth: Empirical evidence from transition economies. In MIC 2017: Managing the Global Economy; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Monastier di Treviso, Italy, 24–27 May 2017 (pp. 581-594). University of Primorska Press.
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820.
  • Swamy, P. A. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 311-323.
  • Topallı, N. (2016). Doğrudan sermaye yatırımları, Ticari dışa açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye ve BRICS Ülkeleri örnekleri, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 17 (1), 83-95.
  • Topaloğlu, E. E., & Ege, İ. (2020). Kredi Temerrüt Swapları (CDS) ile Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli Zaman Serisi Analizleri. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(2), 1373-1393.
  • Tuncer, İ. (2002). Türkiye’de İhracat İthalat ve Büyüme: TODA YAMAMOTO Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri 1980 2000. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(9). 89-107.
  • Udeagha, M. C., & Ngepah, N. (2021). The asymmetric effect of trade openness on economic growth in South Africa: a nonlinear ARDL approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54(2), 491-540.
  • Ulaşan, B. (2012). Openness to international trade and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation (No. 2012-25). Economics Discussion Papers. Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel, 1-57.
  • Ünsal, M.E. (2013). Makro İktisat. Ankara. İmaj Yayınevi. 759s.
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
  • Yanikkaya, H. (2003). Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation. Journal of Development economics, 72(1), 57-89.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007). Ticari ve Finansal Dışa Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, (5), 67-89.
  • Yıldırm, K., Karaman, D. ve Taşdemir M. (2008). Makroekonomi. Ankara. Seçkin Yayınevi. 633s.
  • Yılmaz, E.Ş. (2016). Dış Ticaret Kuramlarının Evrimi. Ankara. Efil Yayınevi. 359s.

Ticari Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ampirik Analizi: Doğu Avrupa Ülkeleri Örneği

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 3, 2683 - 2706, 30.09.2022

Asım Kar Emre Kılıç Şevket Pazarcı

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1075306

Abstract

Geçtiğimiz yüzyılın en çarpıcı ekonomik ve siyasal olaylarından biri olan SSCB’nin dağılmasıyla, birlikten ayrılan ve merkezi planlamacı ekonomi anlayışına sahip olan Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri daha önce tecrübe etmedikleri serbest piyasa ekonomisine geçmiştirler. Bu siyasi ve iktisadi değişimle birlikte Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri, aynı dönemde küreselleşme akımlarının etkisi altında kalarak ticari liberalizasyon süreçleri ile karşılaşarak ticari dışa açık bir yapıya sahip olmuşturlar. Bu çalışmanın amacı seçili 10 Doğu Avrupa ülkesinde ticari dışa açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi 1995-2020 dönemi boyunca analiz etmektedir. Yapılan zaman serisi analizi sonucuna göre, 3 ülkede (Letonya, Litvanya, Slovakya) ticari dışa açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Panel veri analizi sonuçlarına göre, ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasında herhangi bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir.

Keywords

Ticari Açıklık Ekonomik Büyüklük Zaman Serisi Analizi Panel Veri Analizi

References

  • Alam, K. J., & Sumon, K. K. (2020). Causal relationship between trade openness and economic growth: a panel data analysis of Asian countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(1), 118.
  • Alam, M. S. (1991). Trade orientation and macroeconomic performance in LDCs: an empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39(4), 839-848.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Niroomand, F. (1999). Openness and economic growth: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 6(9), 557-561.
  • Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley & Sons.
  • Banday, U. J., Murugan, S., & Maryam, J. (2021). Foreign direct investment, trade openness and economic growth in BRICS countries: evidences from panel data. Transnational Corporations Review, 13(2), 211-221.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The review of economic studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Chang, R., Kaltani, L., & Loayza, N. V. (2009). Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities. Journal of development economics, 90(1), 33-49.
  • Chang, Y. (2004). Bootstrap unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency. Journal of econometrics, 120(2), 263-293.
  • Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors. Journal of econometrics, 188(2), 393-420.
  • Dağdelen, İ. (2004). Liberalizasyon. Uluslararası İnsan Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(1), 1-66.
  • Dao, A. T. (2015). Trade Openness and Economic Growth, The Park Place Economist, 23(1), 44-62.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876.
  • Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. Enders, Walter (2015). Applied Econometric Time Series, Fourth Edition, Wiley University of Alabama.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Erdoğan, L., Tiryaki, A., & Ceylan, R. (2018). Türkiye'de Uzun Dönem Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicilerinin Ardl, Fmols, Dols ve Ccr Yöntemleriyle Tahmini. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 36(4), 39-57.
  • Gries, T., & Redlin, M. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth: a panel causality analysis. In International conferences of RCIE, KIET, and APEA, March (pp. 16-18).
  • Gül, E., & Kamacı, A. (2012). Dış Ticaretin Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business/Alanya Isletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(3).
  • Gül, E., Kamacı, A., & Konya, S. (2013). Dış ticaretin büyüme üzerine etkileri: Türk Cumhuriyetleri ve Türkiye örneği. Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 35, 1-12.
  • Harrison, A. (1996). Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries. Journal of development Economics, 48(2), 419-447.
  • Huchet‐Bourdon, M., Le Mouël, C., & Vijil, M. (2018). The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue. The World Economy, 41(1), 59-76.
  • Idris, J., Yusop, Z., & Habibullah, M. S. (2016). Trade openness and economic growth: A causality test in panel perspective. International Journal of Business and Society, 17(2).
  • Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1987). A test for normality of observations and regression residuals. International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique, 163-172.
  • Jayme, F.G. (2001). Notes on Trade and Growth. Texto Para Discussao. No:166.
  • Kaya, Z. & Şahin, L. (2015). Dış ticaret hacmi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin panel eşbütünleşme analiziyle değerlendirilmesi: BRIC ülkeleri (1995-2013), Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitü Dergisi, 7(13), .434-446.
  • Kurt, S. & Berber M. (2008). Türkiye’de Dışa Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 22(2), 57-79.
  • Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
  • Miller, S. M., & Upadhyay, M. P. (2000). The effects of openness, trade orientation, and human capital on total factor productivity. Journal of development economics, 63(2), 399-423.
  • Nazlioglu, S. 2021. “TSPDLIB: GAUSS Time Series and Panel Data Methods (Version 2.0).: Source Code. https://github.com/aptech/tspdlib
  • Oloyede, B. M., Osabuohien, E. S., & Ejemeyovwi, J. O. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth in Africa's regional economic communities: empirical evidence from ECOWAS and SADC. Heliyon, 7(5), e06996.
  • Omoke, P. C., & Opuala–Charles, S. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth nexus: Exploring the role of institutional quality in Nigeria. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1868686.
  • Özcan, C. C., Özmen, İ., & Özcan, G. (2018). Ticari Dışa Açıklığın Ekonomik Büyüme’ye Etkisi: Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (40), 60-73.
  • Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 119-143. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125.
  • Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of political economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
  • Sandalcılar, A. R. (2012). BRIC ülkelerinde ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasindaki ilişki: Panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(1), 161-179.
  • Silajdzic, S., & Mehic, E. (2017). Trade openness and economic growth: Empirical evidence from transition economies. In MIC 2017: Managing the Global Economy; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Monastier di Treviso, Italy, 24–27 May 2017 (pp. 581-594). University of Primorska Press.
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820.
  • Swamy, P. A. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 311-323.
  • Topallı, N. (2016). Doğrudan sermaye yatırımları, Ticari dışa açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye ve BRICS Ülkeleri örnekleri, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 17 (1), 83-95.
  • Topaloğlu, E. E., & Ege, İ. (2020). Kredi Temerrüt Swapları (CDS) ile Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli Zaman Serisi Analizleri. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(2), 1373-1393.
  • Tuncer, İ. (2002). Türkiye’de İhracat İthalat ve Büyüme: TODA YAMAMOTO Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri 1980 2000. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(9). 89-107.
  • Udeagha, M. C., & Ngepah, N. (2021). The asymmetric effect of trade openness on economic growth in South Africa: a nonlinear ARDL approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54(2), 491-540.
  • Ulaşan, B. (2012). Openness to international trade and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation (No. 2012-25). Economics Discussion Papers. Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel, 1-57.
  • Ünsal, M.E. (2013). Makro İktisat. Ankara. İmaj Yayınevi. 759s.
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
  • Yanikkaya, H. (2003). Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation. Journal of Development economics, 72(1), 57-89.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007). Ticari ve Finansal Dışa Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, (5), 67-89.
  • Yıldırm, K., Karaman, D. ve Taşdemir M. (2008). Makroekonomi. Ankara. Seçkin Yayınevi. 633s.
  • Yılmaz, E.Ş. (2016). Dış Ticaret Kuramlarının Evrimi. Ankara. Efil Yayınevi. 359s.
There are 53 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Asım Kar 0000-0001-5763-1434

Emre Kılıç 0000-0003-2900-5123

Şevket Pazarcı 0000-0002-3675-909X

Publication Date September 30, 2022
Acceptance Date July 28, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 6 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Kar, A., Kılıç, E., & Pazarcı, Ş. (2022). Ticari Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ampirik Analizi: Doğu Avrupa Ülkeleri Örneği. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 6(3), 2683-2706. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1075306
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