Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Performance in Air Cargo Transportation: A Panel Data Analysis of 17 European Countries

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 3, 765 - 779, 29.09.2025

Didem Göçmen , Birsen Açıkel

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1596204

Abstract

Air cargo transportation is a major industry that accounts for a significant share of global trade and generates both economic and social benefits. The success of this industry, which involves multiple actors with diverse roles, is closely linked to macroeconomic indicators. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of macroeconomic indicators on air cargo performance by analyzing their short- and long-term impacts. Data from 17 European countries with the highest air cargo traffic during 2002–2022 were analyzed using the Panel ARDL method. Air cargo volume in ton-km was used as the dependent variable, while GDP, population, foreign trade volume, foreign direct investment, and the number of departures were considered as independent variables. Results show that in the short term, a one percent increase in economic growth raises air cargo volume by 0.619 percent, and population growth by 1.206 percent. Foreign trade volume has a negative short-term effect but a positive long-term effect. Foreign direct investment has no significant impact, whereas the number of departures positively affects air cargo traffic across all periods. Given that existing studies largely focus on passenger transport demand, the multidimensional and comparative approach of this study offers a valuable contribution to the literature.

Keywords

Air Cargo Transportation , Air Freight Transportation Performance , European Air Cargo Transportation , Macroeconomic Indicators

Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Performance in Air Cargo Transportation: A Panel Data Analysis of 17 European Countries

Abstract

Hava kargo taşımacılığı, dünya ticaret hacminin büyük bir bölümünü karşılayan, ekonomik ve sosyal faydalar yaratan önemli endüstrilerden biridir. Farklı görevlerle donatılmış birden çok aktörün yer aldığı bu endüstrinin başarısı, makro ekonomik göstergelerle de yakın ilişki içerisindedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, makroekonomik göstergelerin hava kargo taşımacılığı performansı üzerindeki etkisini inceleyerek sektörün performansını yönlendiren değişkenlerin kısa ve uzun dönemli etkilerini analiz etmektir. Çalışmada, 2002–2022 döneminde Avrupa’da en yoğun hava kargo taşımacılığı yapan 17 ülkenin verileri Panel ARDL yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Ton-km cinsinden hava kargo hacmi bağımlı değişken olarak alınmış; GSYH, nüfus, dış ticaret hacmi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve kalkış sayısı bağımsız değişkenler olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümedeki %1’lik artış, hava kargo taşımacılığını %0,619, nüfus artışı ise %1,206 oranında pozitif etkilemektedir. Dış ticaret hacmi kısa dönemde negatif, uzun dönemde ise pozitif etki göstermektedir. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların hava kargo taşımacılığı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmazken kalkış sayısı tüm dönemlerde hava kargo trafiğini olumlu etkilemektedir. Literatürde makroekonomik değişkenlerin genellikle yolcu taşımacılığı talebi açısından incelendiği, hava kargo taşımacılığına yönelik kısa ve uzun dönemli analizlerin ise sınırlı olduğu dikkate alındığında, bu çalışmanın hava kargo performansını çok boyutlu ve karşılaştırmalı biçimde ele almasının, literatüre katkı sağlayacağı değerlendirilmektedir.

Keywords

Hava Kargo Taşımacılığı , Havayolu Taşımacılığı Performansı , Avrupa Hava Kargo Taşımacılığı , Makroekonomik Göstergeler

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