Afet Risk Yönetiminde Teknoloji Temelli Öngörü Kapasitesi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, öngörü, dijital teknolojiler ve afet risk yönetimi arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırma, nitel araştırma yaklaşımı çerçevesinde gerçekleştirilen anlatısal bir literatür incelemesine dayanmaktadır. Bu kapsamda Web of Science, ScienceDirect, EBSCO, JSTOR, Scopus ve Google Scholar veri tabanlarında yer alan akademik çalışmalar ile uluslararası örgütlerce hazırlanan rapor ve araştırmalar incelenmiştir. Tarama ağırlıklı olarak son yirmi yılda yayımlanan çalışmaları kapsamakta; elde edilen veriler içerik ve tematik analiz yaklaşımıyla değerlendirilmektedir. Analizde, coğrafi bilgi sistemleri, uzaktan algılama, erken uyarı sistemleri, yapay zeka ve nesnelerin interneti gibi teknolojiler; öngörü kapasitesine sağladıkları katkılar bakımından veri üretimi ve toplama, veri analizi ve öngörü oluşturma ile karar alma süreçlerinin desteklenmesi olmak üzere üç temel işlev üzerinden incelenmiştir. Bulgular, söz konusu teknolojilerin risklerin erken belirlenmesi, alternatif senaryoların geliştirilmesi ve karar destek süreçlerinin güçlendirilmesi yoluyla afet risk yönetiminde öngörü kapasitesini artırdığını göstermektedir. Ancak bu araçların etkinliğinin, veri güvenilirliği ve algoritmik tasarımın niteliğine bağlı olduğu belirtilmelidir. Sonuç olarak çalışma dijital teknolojileri, reaktif afet yönetimi anlayışından proaktif, veri temelli ve öngörü odaklı yönetişim yaklaşımına geçişi destekleyen stratejik kapasite unsurları olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Afet Risk Yönetimi
• Öngörü
• Teknoloji

Technology Based Foresight Capacity in Disaster Risk Management

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between foresight, digital technologies, and disaster risk management. The research is based on a narrative literature review conducted within the framework of a qualitative research approach. In this context, academic studies indexed in the Web of Science, ScienceDirect, EBSCO, JSTOR, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases, as well as reports and research prepared by international organizations, were examined. The search predominantly covers studies published in the last two decades; the data obtained are evaluated using content and thematic analysis approaches. In the analysis, technologies such as geographic information systems, remote sensing, early warning systems, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things are examined in terms of their contributions to foresight capacity, based on three primary functions: data generation and collection, data analysis and foresight formulation, and the support of decision-making processes. The findings indicate that these technologies enhance foresight capacity in disaster risk management through the early identification of risks, the development of alternative scenarios, and the strengthening of decision-support processes. However, it should be noted that the effectiveness of these tools is contingent upon data reliability and the quality of algorithmic design. Consequently, this study reveals that digital technologies constitute strategic capacity elements that support the transition from a reactive disaster management paradigm to a proactive, data-driven, and foresight-oriented governance approach.

Keywords

• Risk Management
• Foresight
• Technology

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