COVID-19 Karantinasının Elektrik Tüketimine ve Üretimine Etkisi: Türkiye örneği

Abstract

İlk olarak Çin'in Wuhan kentinde ortaya çıkan koronavirüsün (COVID-19) insan sağlığı üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini azaltmak için hükümetler tarafından uzaktan eğitim ve sokağa çıkma yasakları gibi önlemler alındı. Bu önlemler elektrik tüketimini etkiledi. Türkiye, COVID-19'dan olumsuz etkilenen ülkelerden biri oldu. Bu nedenle, bu makalenin amacı, Türkiye'de elektrik tüketiminin ve üretiminin COVID-19 salgınına bağlı olarak değişimini analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla, Türkiye'deki elektrik tüketimindeki değişimi incelemek için altı ilin konut, sanayi, iş yeri ve toplam elektrik tüketimi analiz edilmiştir. 2020 yılında ilk vakanın görüldüğü Mart ayı ile birlikte yılın on ayına bakıldığında 2019 yılına göre incelenen altı ilde konut elektrik tüketiminin arttığı gözlemlenmiştir. Sanayi elektriği tüketimi Mart ve sonraki aylarda azalmıştır, ancak sonraki aylarda artmıştır. Öte yandan, neredeyse on ayın tamamında işyeri elektrik tüketiminde azalma olduğu gözlenmiştir. Türkiye'de kişi başına elektrik üretimi tahmini çalışmasında, 2020 yılında üretilen elektriğin eğri uydurma yöntemiyle elde edilen tahmini değerden % 5,89 daha fazla olduğu hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca 2019 ve 2020 yılları elektrik tüketimini ve kişi başına üretimi karşılama çalışmasına göre 2019 yılında % 0,22, 2020 yılında ise % 0,27 oranında üretimin tüketimi karşılayamadığı hesaplanmıştır.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• Elektrik üretimi
• Elektrik tüketimi
• Kişi başı elektrik
• Konut elektriği

COVID-19 Lockdown Impact to Electricity Consumption and Generation: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

In order to reduce the negative impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19), which first emerged in Wuhan, China measures such as distance education and curfews were taken by governments to reduce the negative impact on human health. These precautions had an impact on electricity consumption. Turkey was one of the countries adversely affected by COVID-19. Therefore, the objective of this paper analyze the variation of electricity consumption and generation in Turkey depending on the COVID-19 outbreake. For this purpose, residential, industrial, business and total electricity consumption of six provinces was analyzed in order to examine the variation in electricity consumption in Turkey. Considering the ten months of the year, with March when the first case occurred in 2020 compared to 2019, it was observed that residential electricity consumption increased in the six provinces studied. Industrial electricity consumption decreased in March and the following months, but increased in the following months. On the other hand, it was observed that there was a decrease in the business electricity consumption in almost all ten months. In the per capita electricity generation estimation study in Turkey, it was calculated that the electricity generated in 2020 is 5.89% more than the estimated value obtained by the curve fitting method. In addition, according to the study of coverage the electricity consumption and generation per capita for the years 2019 and 2020, it was calculated that generation could not coverage the consumption by 0.22% in 2019 and 0.27% in 2020.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• Electricity generation
• Electricity consumption
• Per capita electricity
• Residential electricity

References

1. [1] Sausen, A.T.Z.R., Campos, M.d., Sausen, P.S., Binelo, M.O., Binelo, M.F.B., Silva, J.M.L.V.d., Santos, M.d. 2021. Classification of the social distance during the COVID‐19 pandemic from electricity consumption using artificial intelligence, Int J Energy Res., 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1002/er.6418.
2. [2] Gulati, P., Kumar, A., Bhardwaj, R. 2021. Impact of Covid19 on electricity load in Haryana (India), International Journal of Energy Research, Int J Energy Res. 45:3397–3409, https://doi.org/10.1002/er.6008.
3. [3] Bulut, M. 2020. Analysis of the Covid-19 Impact on Electricity Consumption and Production, Sakarya University Journal of Computer and Information Sciences, 3:(3). DOI: 10.35377/saucis.03.03.817595.
4. [4] Edomah, N., Ndulue, G. 2020. Energy transition in a lockdown: An analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on changes in electricity demand in Lagos Nigeria, Global Transitions, 2: 127-137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.glt.2020.07.002.
5. [5] Santiago, I., Munoz, A.M., Jiménez, P.Q., Torres, F.G., Redondo, M.J.G. 2021. Electricity demand during pandemic times: The case of the COVID-19 in Spain, Energy Policy, 148-A, 111964. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111964.
6. [6] Zhong, H., Tan, Z., He, Y., Xie, L., Kang, C. 2020. Implications of COVID-19 for the Electricity Industry: A Comprehensive Review, CSEE J. Power Energy Syst., 6(3). DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2020.02500.
7. [7] Özbay, H., Dalcalı, A. 2021. Effects of COVID-19 on electric energy consumption in Turkey and ANN-based short-term forecasting, Turk J Elec Eng & Comp Sci, 29:78 – 97, doi:10.3906/elk-2006-29.
8. [8] Baran, B. 2020. Coverage Ratio of Residential Electricity Demand of Turkey with Wastewater Treatment Plant Hydroelectric Production, Academic Platform Journal of Engineering and Science, 8(1), 139-145, https://doi.org/10.21541/apjes.503355.

9. [9] Güler, İ., Aydınbaş, Y.E. 2020. The Economic Effect of Covid-19 Process on Turkey: The Relationship Between Number of Coronavirus Cases and Electricity Consumption, TYB AKADEMİ, 30:11-32.
10. [10] The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV). 2021. COVID-19’un Ekonomiye Etkisinin Elektrik Tüketimi İle Takibi, https://www.tepav.org.tr/tr/yayin/s/1493, Accessed date: 15 January 2021.
11. [11] Firik, B., Irmak, E. 2021. Early Period Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Turkish Electricity Profile, Gazi University Journal of Science Part C: Design and Technology, 9 (1): 040-056. https://doi.org/10.29109/gujsc.840151.
12. [12] Delgado, D. B.d.M., Lima, K.M.d., Cancela, M.d.C., Siqueira, C.A.d.S., Carvalho, M., Souza, D.L.B.d. 2021. Trend analyses of electricity load changes in Brazil due to COVID-19 shutdowns, Electr. Power Syst. Res., 193, 107009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2020.107009.
13. [13] Rayash, A.A., Dincer, I. 2020. Analysis of the electricity demand trends amidst the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, Energy Research & Social Science, 68, 101682, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101682.
14. [14] Edomah, N., Ndulue, G. 2020. Energy transition in a lockdown: An analysis of the impact of COVID19 on changes in electricity demand in Lagos Nigeria, Glob. Transitions, 2, 127–137. doi: 10.1016/j.glt.2020.07.002.
15. [15] Ghiani, E., Galici, M., Mureddu, M., Pilo, F. 2020. Impact on electricity consumption and market pricing of energy and ancillary services during pandemic of COVID-19 in Italy, Energies, 13. doi: 10.3390/en13133357.
16. [16] Aruga, K., Islam, Md. M., Jannat, A. 2020. Effects of COVID-19 on Indian Energy Consumption, Sustainability, MDPI, 12(14), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145616.
17. [17] Carvalho, M., Delgado, D.B.d.M., Lima, K.M.d., Cancela, M.d.C., Siqueira, C.A.d., Souza, D.L.B.d. 2021. Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian electricity consumption patterns, Int J Energy Res., 45(2), 3358–3364, https://doi.org/10.1002/er.5877
18. [18] Geraldi, M.S., Bavaresco, M.V., Triana, M.A., Melo, A.P., Lamberts, R. 2021. Addressing the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on energy use in municipal buildings: A case study in Florianópolis, Brazil, Sustain Cities Soc, 69, 102823, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102823.
19. [19] Carcedo, J.M., García, J.P. 2019. Time of day effects of temperature and daylight on short term electricity load, Energy, 174, 169-183, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.02.158.
20. [20] Haliloğlu, E.Y., Tutu, B.E. 2018. Short-term electricity power demand forecasting for Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University 13(51), 243-255.
21. [21] Kim, T.Y., Cho, S.B. 2019. Predicting residential energy consumption using CNN-LSTM neural networks. Energy, 182, 72-81. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.230.
22. [22] Liasi, S.G., Shahbazian, A., Bina, M.T. 2020. COVID-19 Pandemic; Challenges and Opportunities in Power Systems. IEEE Smartgrid.
23. [23] Williamson, M., Zaman, A. 2020. COVID-19 crisis reinforces the importance of the sustainable energy transition, Online Available from URL: https://www.unescap.org/blog/covid-19-crisis-reinforces-importance-sustainable-energy-transition.
24. [24] Norouzi, N., Fani, M. 2020. The impacts of the novel corona virus on the oil and electricity demand in Iran and China, Journal of Energy Management and Technology (JEMT), 4, 36-48, DOI: 10.22109/JEMT.2020.222593.1232.
25. [25] Keles, C., Yigit, Y. 2019. Implementation of Demand Side Load Management by Domestic Load Shedding Algorithm for Conventional Electricity Meters, 2019 International Artificial Intelligence and Data Processing Symposium (IDAP), Turkey, 1-4, doi: 10.1109/IDAP.2019.8875941.
26. [26] Baran, B., Mamis, M.S., Alagoz, B.B. 2016. Utilization of energy from waste plants for microgrids, 2016 4th International Istanbul Smart Grid Congress and Fair (ICSG), Istanbul, Turkey, 1-5, doi: 10.1109/SGCF.2016.7492431.
27. [27] Baran, B. 2019. Aşırı Öğrenme Makineleri ile Rüzgar Hızına Bağlı Enerji Tahmini: Malatya Örneği, 1. Ulusal Mühendislik ve Teknoloji Kongresi (UMTK), 56-62.
28. [28] Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST). 2021. Residential, Industrial, Business and Total Consumer Numbers, https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency/tuketim/tuketici-bilgisi/tuketici-sayisi.xhtml, Access date: 2 February 2021.
29. [29] Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST). 2021. Monthly Residential, Industrial, Business and Total Electricity Consumption Data of Provinces, https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency/tuketim/gerceklesen-tuketim/yuzdesel-tuketim-bilgileri.xhtml, Accessed date: 3 February 2021.
30. [30] Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST). 2021. Electricity generation data by month, https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency/uretim/gerceklesen-uretim/gercek-zamanli-uretim.xhtml, Accessed date: 4 February 2021.
31. [31] Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI). 2021. Population data by years, Turkey, 2021. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=95&locale=tr, Accessed date: 14 February 2021.
32. [32] COVID-19 Timetable. 2021. https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C3%BCrkiye%27de_COVID-19_pandemisi_zaman_%C3%A7izelgesi, Accessed date: 10 February 2021.
33. [33] Residential Electricity. 2021. https://www.electricchoice.com/residential-electricity/, Accessed date: 08 April 2021.
34. [34] Electricity Customer. 2021. https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers, Accessed date: 08 April 2021.
35. [35] Box-plot Graph. 2021. https://yalin-dunya.com/2020/06/19/kutu-grafigi-boxplot/, Accessed date: 3 March 2021.
36. [36] Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB), Curve Fitting, 2021.