Explaining Miscalculation and Maladaptation in Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Middle East during the Arab Uprisings: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

Year 2017, , 65 - 83, 02.05.2017

Nuri Yesilyurt

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.310151

Cited By: 3

Abstract

This article seeks to test the relevance of neoclassical realism in explaining the

foreign policy behavior of a regional power in an era of turbulent change in the

regional system. Taking Turkey’s policy response to the Arab Uprisings as a case

study, it tries to explain, from a neoclassical realist perspective, the causes of

Ankara’s miscalculations while formulating an ambitious policy in 2011, as well

as its failure to adapt to the new realities on the ground between 2013 and 2016.

Overall, it argues that neoclassical realism provides a satisfying explanation for

Turkey’s policy failure in this period, and that the problems of miscalculation

and maladaptation in Turkish foreign policy were caused by distortive effects

of certain unit-level factors. In this sense, while ideological tendencies of the

ruling Justice and Development Party, as well as its consolidation of domestic

power, shaped the content and styling of Ankara’s policy response after 2011,

the extensive utilization of foreign policy for domestic purposes by the ruling

party hindered Turkey’s adaptation to shifting balances in the regional power

structure between 2013 and 2016.

Keywords

Neoclassical realism, Turkish Foreign Policy, Middle East, Arab Spring

References

• Alaaldin, Ranj. “Turkey has spent years allowing jihadist groups to flourish - so beware its real reasons for shooting down a Russian plane.” The Independent, November 24, 2015. Accessed February 25, 2016. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/turkey-has-spent-years-allowing-jihadist-groups-to-flourish-so-beware-its-realreasons-for-shooting-a6747161.html.
• Al-Azm, Sadiq J. “The ‘Turkish Model’: A View from Damascus.” Turkish Studies 12, no. 4 (2011): 633-41.
• Altınay, Hakan. “Turkey’s Soft Power: An Unpolished Gem or an Elusive Mirage.” Insight Turkey 10, no. 2 (2008): 55-66.
• Altunışık, Meliha Benli. “The Possibilities and Limits of Turkey’s Soft Power in the Middle East.” Insight Turkey 10, no. 2 (2008): 41-54.
• ———. “Turkey as an ‘Emerging Donor’ and the Arab Uprisings.” Mediterranean Politics 19, no. 3 (2014): 333-50.
• Aras, Bülent. “Turkey between Syria and Israel: Turkey’s Rising Soft Power.” SETA Policy Brief 15 (2005): 1-6.
• Ayata, Bilgin. “Turkish Foreign Policy in a Changing Arab World: Rise and Fall of a Regional Actor?” Journal of European Integration 37, no. 1 (2014): 95-112.
• Ayoob, Mohammed. “Beyond the Democratic Wave in the Arab World: The Middle East’s Turko-Persian Future.” Insight Turkey 13, no. 2 (2011): 57-70.
• Bağış, Egemen. “Turkey as a Source of Inspiration in the Arab Spring.” FMA Bulletin 42 (2003): 12-13.
• Beng, Phar Kim. “Turkey’s Potential as a Soft Power, A Call for Conceptual Clarity.” Insight Turkey 10, no. 2 (2008): 21-40.
• Chandler, Adam. “Can the U.S. Defeat ISIS Without Removing Assad?” The Atlantic, November 13, 2014. Accessed February 18, 2016. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/can-the-us-defeat-isis-withoutremoving- assad/382735/.
• Christensen, Thomas J. Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947-1958. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996.
• Çiçek, Nevzat. “AK Parti İdeolojisi artık ihraç ürünü” [AKP ideology is now an export commodity]. Timeturk, June 13, 2011. Accessed February 17, 2016. http://www.timeturk.com/tr/makale/nevzat-cicek/ak-parti-ideolojisiartik-ihrac-urunu.html.
• Dal, Emel Parlar. “Assessing Turkey's “Normative” Power in the Middle East and North Africa Region: New Dynamics and their Limitations.” Turkish Studies 14, no. 4 (2013): 709-34.
• Davutoğlu, Ahmet. “The Three Major Earthquakes in the International System and Turkey.” The International Spectator 48, no. 2 (2013): 1-11.
• Djalili, Muhammad-Reza, and Thierry Kellner. ‘Arap Baharı’ karşısında İran ve Türkiye [Iran and Turkey in the face of the ‘Arab Spring’]. Translated by Hande Güreli. İstanbul: Bilge Kültür Sanat, 2013.
• Doğan, Zülfikar. “AKP’nin Müslüman Kardeşler sevdası, Libya’yı kaybettiriyor!” [AKP’s love of Muslim Brotherhood makes it loose Libya]. Al Monitor, January 6, 2015. Accessed February 18, 2016. http://www.almonitor.com/pulse/tr/originals/2015/01/turkey-loosing-libya-due-to-muslim-brotherhood-passion.html.
• Ennis, Crystal A., and Bessma Momani. “Shaping the Middle East in the Midst of the Arab Uprisings: Turkish and Saudi Foreign Policy Strategies.” Third World Quarterly 34, no. 6 (2013): 1127-144.
• Gerges Fawaz. “The Obama Approach to the Middle East: The End of America’s Moment?” International Affairs 89, no. 2 (2013): 299-323.
• Gordon, Michael R. “U.S. and Russia Reach Deal to Destroy Syria’s Chemical Arms.” The New York Times, September 14, 2013. Accessed February 18, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/world/middleeast/syria-talks.html?_r=0.
• Gürcanlı, Zeynep. “Dış politikada 'değerli yalnızlık' dönemi” [‘Worthy solitude’ period in foreign policy]. Hürriyet, August 21, 2013. Accessed February 25, 2016. http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dis-politikada-degerli-yalnizlikdonemi-24553602.
• Hagan, Joe D. “Domestic Political Explanations in the Analysis of Foreign Policy.” In Foreign Policy Analysis:Continuity and Change in Its Second Generation, edited by Laura Neack, Jeanne Hey and Patrick Haney: 117-43. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1995.
• Hamsici, Mahmut. “ÖSO: Fetih Ordusu ile birlikte hareket ediyoruz” [FSA: We liaise with Al Nusra]. BBC Türkçe, May 5, 2015. Accessed February 18, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2015/05/150503_osama_abu_zaid_oso_suriye_roportaj.
• ———. “Türkiye, S. Arabistan ve Katar'ın 'Suriye ittifakı' ne anlama geliyor?” [What is the meaning of the ‘Syrian alliance’ of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar?]. BBC Türkçe, May 6, 2015. Accessed February 25, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2015/05/150504_turkiye_suudi_arabistan_katar.
• Hinnebusch, Raymond. “Back to Enmity: Turkey-Syria Relations since the Syrian Uprising.” Orient 56, no. 1 (2015): 14-22.
• İdiz, Semih. “Türkiye’nin Irak’ta yitirdiği nüfuz” [How Turkey lost its influence in Iraq]. Al Monitor, June 6, 2014. Accessed February 18, 2016. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/tr/originals/2014/06/krg-iraq-turkey-kurdishoil-us-barzani-energy.html.
• Karacasulu, Nilüfer. “Interpreting Turkey's Middle East Policy in the Last Decade.” All Azimuth 4, no. 1 (2015):27-38.
• Karagöz, Serdar. “President Erdoğan: EU, US should recognize PYD as a terrorist group.” Daily Sabah, February 1, 2016. Accessed February 18, 2016. http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2016/02/02/president-erdogan-eu-usshould-recognize-pyd-as-a-terrorist-group.
• Kassir, Samir. Arap talihsizliği [Arab malaise]. Translated by Özgür Gökmen. İstanbul: İletişim, 2011.
• Kireççi, Mehmet Akif, ed. Arap Baharı ve Türkiye modeli tartışmaları [Arab Spring and Turkish model debates]. Ankara: ASEM Yayınları, 2014.
• Lefèvre, Raphaël. “Islamism Within a Civil War: The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood’s Struggle for Survival.” Working Paper, Rethinking Political Islam Series, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., 2015. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Syria_Lefevre-FINALE.pdf.
• Moshiri, Nazanine. “Interview with Rachid Ghannouchi.” Al Jazeera English, February 7, 2011. Accessed October 12, 2016. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2011/02/2011233464273624.html.
• Oğuzlu, Tarık. “Soft Power in Turkish Foreign Policy.” Australian Journal of International Affairs 61, no. 1 (2007):81-97.
• Öniş, Ziya. “Turkey and the Arab Revolutions: Boundaries of Regional Power Influence in a Turbulent Middle East.” Mediterranean Politics 19, no. 2 (2014): 203-19.
• Özcan, Gencer. “Dış politika analizi” [Foreign policy analysis]. In Küresel siyasete giriş [Introduction to global politics], edited by Evren Balta, 323-49. İstanbul: İletişim, 2014.
• Özel, Zeynep Tuğrul. “Başbakan Davutoğlu: Türkiye bütün mazlumların son kalesidir” [PM Davutoğlu: Turkey is the last fortress of all oppressed people]. Star, February 3, 2016. Accessed February 18, 2016. http://haber.star.com.tr/guncel/turkiye-butun-mazlumlarin-son-8200-3bkalesidir/haber-1086748.
• Panayirci, Ugur Cevdet, and Emre Iseri. "A Content Analysis of the AKP's ‘Honorable’ Foreign Policy Discourse: The Nexus of Domestic–International Politics." Turkish Studies 15, no. 1 (2014): 62-80.
• Rathbun, Brian. "A Rose by Any Other Name: Neoclassical Realism as the Logical and Necessary Extension of Structural Realism." Security Studies 17, no. 2 (2008): 294-321.
• Ripsman, Norrin, M., Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, and Steven E. Lobell. “Conclusion: The State of Neoclassical Realism.” In Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, edited by Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman, and Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, 280-99. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
• ———. Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics. New York: Oxford University Press, 2016.
• Ripsman, Norrin M., Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Steven E. Lobell, John Mearsheimer, Deborah W. Larson, Patrick James, Anders Wivel, and Stacie Goddard. “Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics.” Roundtable discussion at the annual convention for International Studies Association, Atlanta, Georgia, March 16-19, 2016.
• Robins, Philip. “Turkey's ‘Double Gravity’ Predicament: The Foreign Policy of a Newly Activist Power.” International Affairs 89, no. 2 (2013): 381-97.
• Rose, Gideon. “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy.” World Politics 51, no. 1 (1998): 144-72.
• Schweller, Randall L. “The Progressiveness of Neoclassical Realism.” In Progress in International Relations Theory: Appraising the Field, edited by Colin Elman and Miriam Fenidus Elman, 311-47. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2003.
• Sever, Ayşegül. Türkiye’nin Orta Doğu ilişkileri: Kavramsal ve olgusal bir analiz [Turkey’s relations with the Middle East: A conceptual and factual analysis]. İstanbul: Derin Yayınları, 2012.
• Spencer, Richard, and Raf Sanchez. “Turkish government co-operated with al-Qaeda in Syria, says former US ambassador.” The Telegraph, September 14, 2014. Accessed February 25, 2016. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/11093478/Turkish-government-co-operated-with-al-Qaeda-in-Syria-saysformer-US-ambassador.html.
• Stein, Aaron. “III. The End of ‘Zero Problems’, 2010-13.” Whitehall Papers 83, no. 1 (2014): 34-58.
• Taliaferro, Jeffrey W., Steven E. Lobell, and Norrin M. Ripsman. “Introduction: Neoclassical Realism, The State,and Foreign Policy.” In Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, edited by Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman, and Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, 1-41. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
• Tanrıverdi, Nebahat. “Tunus seçimleri arifesinde Türkiye-Tunus ilişkileri” [Turkish-Tunisian relations in the wake of the Tunisian elections]. ORSAM Rapor 192 (2014): 1-32.
• Taşpınar, Ömer. “Turkey’s Middle East Policies: Between Neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism.” Carnegie Papers 10 (2008): 1-29.
• Taştekin, Fehim. Suriye: Yıkıl git, diren kal [Syria: Break down, stay and resist]. İstanbul: İletişim, 2015.
• Turan, Metin. “Başbakan'dan Netanyahu'ya gözdağı!” [PM defies Netanyahu]. DHA, November 18, 2012. Accessed February 17, 2016. http://www.dha.com.tr/basbakandan-netanyahuya-gozdagi_389033.html.
• Uzgel, İlhan, and Volkan Yaramış. “Özal’dan Davutoğlu’na Türkiye’de Yeni Osmanlıcı arayışlar” [Yearnings for Neo-Ottomanism in Turkey from Özal to Davutoğlu]. Doğudan 16 (2010): 36-49.
• van Wilgenburg, Wladimir. “Salih Muslim: Syrian coalition does not represent Kurds.” Al Monitor, January 31, 2014. Accessed February 18, 2016. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/pyd-leader-geneva-iiinclude-syrian-kurds.html#ixzz40VcsVfTU.
• Yarım kalan devrim: Mısır [The uncompleted revolution: Egypt]. Ankara: Anadolu Ajansı, 2014.
• Yeşilyurt, Nuri, and Atay Akdevelioğlu. “AKP döneminde Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu politikası” [Turkey’s Middle East policy during the AKP period]. In AKP kitabı: Bir dönüşümün bilançosu [The AKP book: Balance-sheet of a transformation], edited by İlhan Uzgel and Bülent Duru, 381-409. Ankara: Phoenix Yayınevi, 2009.
• Yezdani, İpek. “Muslim Brotherhood debates Turkey model.” Hürriyet Daily News, September 14, 2011. Accessed October 12, 2016. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/default.aspx?pageid=438&n=muslim-brotherhooddebates- turkey-model-2011-09-14.
• Zakaria, Fareed. From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of Americas World Role. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998.
• Zengin, Gürkan. Kavga: Arap Baharı’nda Türk dış politikası 2010-2013 [Quarrel: Turkish foreign policy during the Arab Spring 2010-2013]. İstanbul: İnkılâp, 2013.