Money- Physical Capital Nexus: How Valid Is McKinnon Complementarity Hypothesis In Turkish Economy?

Abstract

According to theory of financial liberalization that emphasizes money and physical capital complementarity, increase in real interest rate following liberalization leads to money demand and investment. Validity of this assumption, which is also known as McKinnon complementarity hypothesis, has been tested empirically for various countries undertaken financial liberalization policies. These empirical works shape the policies of countries with regard to their money demand, interest rate and investment. This study investigates the nexus between money demand, interest rate and investment size in Turkey by employing Bound test and ARDL approach over the period 1988Q1-2013Q4. Empirical analysis of this study hints that there is a limited complementary relationship between money and physical capital in Turkish economy.

Keywords

• Financial Liberalization, McKinnon Complementary Hypothesis, Money and Physical Capital, Bound Test and ARDL Method, Turkey

PARA VE FİZİKİ SERMAYE İLİŞKİSİ: MCKİNNON TAMAMLAYICILIK HİPOTEZİ TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN NE KADAR GEÇERLİ?

Öz

Para ve fiziki sermaye arasında tamamlayıcılık ilişkisine vurgu yapan finansal liberalizasyon teorisine göre serbestleşme uygulamaları sonucu yükselen reel faiz oranları, para talebi ve yatırımlarda artışa yol açacaktır. Literatürde McKinnon tamamlayıcılık hipotezi olarak da isimlendirilen bu hipotezin geçerliliği, finansal liberalizasyon politikalarını hayata geçiren pek çok ülkede yapılan ampirik testlerle sınanmış ve bu doğrultuda para talebi, faiz oranı ve yatırım hacmi arasındaki ilişki tayin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, 1998-2013 dönemi için çeyrek dönemli verilerle Türkiye’de para ve fiziki sermaye arasındaki mevcut ilişki, sınır testi ve ARDL yöntemi aracılığıyla araştırılmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonucu elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye ekonomisinde para ve fiziki sermaye arasında sınırlı bir tamamlayıcılık ilişkisi olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Liberalizasyon, McKinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi, Para ve Fiziki Sermaye, Sınır Testi ve ARDL Yöntemi, Türkiye

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