The Relationship Between Bank Loans And Economic Growth In Turkey: 1995-2010

Abstract

In this study, we aim to determine the direction of the relationship between the economic growth and total credits of Turkish Banks. Accordingly, we analyzed this relationship for the period 1995-2010, by using quarterly data analysis. In the analyses as variables, change in the volume of real credits to represent the variable, total credits; and real growth in GDP represents the variable, growth. This study uses Unit Root Test and Gregory-Hansen (GH) Cointegration test as econometric methods. As a result of the analysis and evaluations, it was found that there exists a cointegrating relationship between relevant variables.

Keywords

• Bank Loan (BL), Economic Growth (EG), Zivot- Andrews Breakpoint Test (ZABT), Gregory-Hansen(GH) Cointegration test

Türkiye’de Banka Kredileri Ve Büyüme İlişkisi: 1995-2010

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, ekonomik büyüme ve Türkiye’deki Bankalarının toplam kredileri arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirlemektir. 1995-2010 dönemine ait üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı analizlerde, kredi hacmindeki değişim değişkeni, toplam kredileri temsil etmekte ve GSYİH reel büyüme değişkeni de, büyümeyi temsil etmektedir. Söz konusu iki değişken arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin araştırılmasında Gregory-Hansen (GH) Eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmış ve analiz sonuçlarına göre ilgili değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin mevcut olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Banka Kredileri (BK), Ekonomik Büyüme (EB), Zivot- Andrews Birim KökTesti (zabt), Gregory-Hansen (GH) Eşbütünleşme testi

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