Sustainable and Renewable Energy Power Plants Evaluation by Fuzzy TODIM Technique

Abstract

Sustainable and renewable energy systems are an effective solution to depletion of fossil energy resources and prevent serious environmental problems resulted from energy production. Turkey has rich renewable energy potential due to its geographical features. In this regard, the government puts emphasis on increasing renewable energy utilization rate in meeting energy demand of the country. Therefore encouragement policies are implemented in this field and energy investors are supported economically. In his study, we aimed to find out the best performing sustainable and renewable energy alternative and thus to guide decision makers on energy investments. Therefore we evaluated four energy power plant types, which are solar, wind, hydroelectric and landfilled gas (LFG). For the evaluation of the alternatives, there are many factors to consider and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) methods are an appropriate approach for this issue. In this regard, we determined 22 evaluation criteria in technical, economical and environmental aspect and applied TODIM technique. It is based on prospect theory and the most significant difference from the other MCDM methods is to deal with risk in decision-making. In order to cope with vagueness and uncertainty in this evaluation process, we integrated fuzzy sets into the system. Finally we evaluated the results obtained and presented a sensitivity analysis at the end.

Keywords

• fuzzy TODIM,prospect theory,power plants,sustainable and renewable energy

Sürdürülebilir ve Yenilenebilir Enerji Santrallerinin Bulanık TODIM Yöntemiyle Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Sürdürülebilir ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları, fosil enerji kaynaklarının azalmasına ve enerji üretiminden kaynaklanan ciddi çevresel problemlerin oluşmasına karşı etkili bir çözümdür. Türkiye coğrafi özellikleri bakımından zengin yenilenebilir enerji potansiyeline sahiptir. Bu bağlamda kendi enerji ihtiyacının karşılanmasında yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının payının artmasına önem vermektedir. Bunun için bu alanda teşvik çalışmaları yapılmakta ve yatırımcılar ekonomik olarak desteklenmektedir. Buradan hareketle, bu çalışmada alternatifler arasından en iyi performans gösteren sürdürülebilir ve yenilenebilir enerji çeşidini bulmak ve bu sayede enerji yatırımlarına referans kaynağı olmak amaçlanmıştır. Dört enerji santral alternatifi değerlendirilmiştir; bunlar güneş, rüzgar, hidroelektrik ve LFG (çöp gazı) santralleridir. Alternatifler değerlendirildiğinde göz önünde bulundurulması gereken birçok önemli kriter bulunmaktadır ve bu problem çeşidi için çok ölçütlü karar verme (ÇÖKV) sistemlerinin uygulanması yerinde bir yaklaşımdır. Bunun üzerine teknik, ekonomik ve çevresel açıdan toplam 22 değerlendirme kriteri belirlenmiştir ve yöntem olarak TODIM tekniği uygulanmıştır. TODIM beklenti teorisine dayanan bir ÇÖKV tekniğidir ve diğer yöntemlerden en önemli farkı karar verme mekanizmasında risk faktörünü ele almasıdır. Ayrıca çalışmada belirsiz, muğlak ve müphem durumlara karşı çözüm için bulanık kümeler sisteme entegre edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar değerlendirilmiş ve çalışmanın sonunda duyarlılık analizine yer verilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bulanık TODIM,beklenti teorisi,elektrik üretim santralleri,sürdürülebilir ve yenilenebilir enerji

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