The Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Oil Price, Economic Growth and Export in OPEC Countries

Abstract

Oil is one of the main inputs demanded by the production, heating and transportation sectors in many developed and developing countries. In countries where the rate of industrialization and growth is high, dependence on oil is constantly increasing. Factors such as the fact that large oil reserves are located in certain regions of the world, differences in oil extraction costs, oil supply and demand imbalances cause oil prices to fluctuate. The macroeconomic effects of fluctuations in oil prices affect the economies of oil exporting and importing countries in different ways. Oil price increases have an increasing effect on energy export revenues and government budget revenues in oil exporting countries. In oil importing countries, it has negative effects on production costs, external balance, growth and production capacity. In an economy dependent on oil export revenues; the presence of new reserves or the increase in oil production changes the structure of production and export sectors in favor of oil. As a result of the increase in petroleum-weighted foreign trade, more foreign currency enters the country and the foreign trade balance deteriorates. In addition, shifting the investments in the country to petroleum and petroleum products predominantly causes the neglect of other sectors, in other words, to exclude the effect of their production and exports. Countries that generate income based on oil exports lose their competitiveness in foreign markets because they cannot invest in R & D, technology and productivity. This situation causes countries to have an import-dependent economic structure, increase their current account deficits and decrease their growth rates. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between average annual crude oil price (nominal value in USD), gross domestic product (2010 prices and $) and export (2010 prices and $) for OPEC member countries by panel data analysis.

Keywords

• OPEC
• OIL PRICE
• PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

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