GSYH ve Mülteciler Arasında Bir Nedensellik Analizi: Türkiye ve Ürdün Karşılaştırması Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ve Ürdün’ün 1965-2020 yılları arasındaki nominal GSYH ve mülteci sayılarından yararlanılarak, ülkelerdeki gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ile mülteci sayıları arasında nedensellik ilişkisinin olup-olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Ülkeler kendi içlerinde analize tabi tutulmuş ve bu ilişkiyi belirleyebilmek için sırasıyla; birim kök testleri (ADF, PP, KPSS) uygulanmıştır. Durağanlıkları test edilen serilerin Johansen Eş bütünleşme Analizi ile uzun dönem ilişkileri tespit edilmiş ve son aşamada da Granger Nedensellik Testi ile gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve mülteci sayıları arasındaki nedensellikler belirlenmiştir. Beklenen sonuç mültecilerin, üretimi simgeleyen gayri safi yurtiçi hasılanın yüksek olduğu ülkelere yönelmesi, bir başka ifade ile gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladan mültecilere doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisinin çıkmasıydı. Ancak çalışma çıktısında elde edilen sonuç beklenenden farklı çıkmıştır. Türkiye ve Ürdün’de çıkan nedensellik ilişkilerinin ters yönlü olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’de mülteci sayılarından gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya doğru bir nedensellik çıkmışken, Ürdün’de gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladan mülteci sayılarına doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu iki ülkenin analizinden de gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve mülteci sayıları arasında tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu sonucu çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• GSYH
• Mülteci
• Granger Nedensellik Testi
• Johansen Eş bütünleşme Testi

A Causality Analysis Between GDP and Refugees: A Comparison Case of Turkey and Jordan

Abstract

This study investigate whether there is a causal relationship between the gross domestic product of the countries and the number of refugees by using the nominal GDP and refugee numbers of Turkey and Jordan between 1965 and 2020. Countries were analyzed within themselves and in order to determine this relationship; unit root tests (ADF, PP, KPSS) were applied. The long-term relationships of the series, whose stationarity were tested, were determined by Johansen Co-integration Analysis. Then causality between the gross domestic product and the number of refugees was determined with the Granger Causality Test. The expected result was that refugees tended towards countries with high gross domestic product, which symbolizes production, in other words, a causal relationship from gross domestic product to refugees. However, the result obtained in the study output was different from what was expected. It has been determined that the causality relations in Türkiye and Jordan are reversed. While a causality has emerged from the number of refugees to the gross domestic product in Turkey, a causal relationship has been found from the gross domestic product to the number of refugees in Jordan. From the analysis of these two countries, it was concluded that there is one-way causality between the gross domestic product and the number of refugees.

Keywords

• GDP
• Refugee
• Granger Casuality Test
• Johansen Cointegration Test

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