Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Gelir Dağılımının Sorunlu Kredilere Etkisi

Year 2024, , 453 - 467, 30.08.2024

İlyas Okumuş , Yücel Ayrıçay , Nur Esra Bekereci

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.1418733

Abstract

The main purpose of the study is to analyze the effects of income inequality on non-performing loans by controlling the effects of other macroeconomic variables for 13 emerging market economies in the 2000–2020 period. In this context, the variables of GDP, unemployment, inflation, domestic credit to the private sector, foreign direct investment and current account deficit were also included in the model and the data were tested with the panel ARDL approach. As a result of the analysis, in emerging market countries, it has been observed that there is a positive and significant relationship between non-performing loans and income distribution in the long run. Therefore, it can be interpreted that income inequality has increased the problem of loans. In addition to these results, a positive and significant relationship was found between non-performing loans and growth, domestic loans to the private sector and unemployment, and a negative and significant relationship between inflation, current account balance, and non-performing loans. In this sense, economic growth, domestic loans given to the private sector, and unemployment rates were the factors that increased non-performing loans apart from income distribution. Finally, the effect of the foreign direct investment variable on non-performing loans was not found to be statistically significant. According to the results obtained, it was observed that the coefficient signs of the variables used in the study were compatible with the literature.

Keywords

Emerging Market Economies, Non-Performing Loans, Income Distribution, Macroeconomic Indicators, ARDL Model

Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Gelir Dağılımının Sorunlu Kredilere Etkisi

Abstract

Çalışmanın temel amacı 2000-2020 döneminde 13 yükselen piyasa ekonomisi için diğer makro ekononomik değişkenlerin etkilerini de kontrol ederek özellikle gelir eşitsizliğinin sorunlu kredilere olan etkilerini analiz etmektir. Bu bağlamda GSYİH, işsizlik, enflasyon, özel sektöre yurtiçi kredi, doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve cari açık değişkenleri de modele dahil edilerek, veriler panel ARDL yaklaşımı ile test edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda; yükselen piyasa ülkelerinde uzun dönemde, sorunlu krediler ile gelir dağılımı arasında pozitif ve anlamlı ilişki olduğu görülmüştür. Dolayısıyla gelir eşitsizliğinin sorunlu kredileri arttığı yorumu yapılabilir. Bu sonuçlara ek olarak sorunlu krediler ile büyüme, özel sektöre yurtiçi kredi ve işsizlik arasında pozitif ve anlamlı, enflasyon ve cari hesap dengesi ile sorunlu krediler arasında negatif ve anlamlı ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu anlamda gelir dağılımı dışında sorunlu kredileri artıran faktörler ekonomik büyüme, özel sektöre verilen yurtiçi krediler ve işsizlik oranları olmuştur. Son olarak doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar değişkeninin sorunlu krediler üzerindeki etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre çalışmada kullanılan değişkenlerin katsayı işaretlerinin literatürle uyumlu bulunduğu gözlemlenmiştir.

Keywords

Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri, Sorunlu Krediler, Gelir Dağılımı, Makroekonomik Göstergeler, ARDL Modeli

References

• Al-Romaihi, M. A., Kumar, M., & Kumaraswamy, S. (2020). Macroeconomic determinants of nonperforming loans: An empirical evidence from GCC countries. In 2020 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Application (DASA),1265-1268.
• Ayhan, F., & Kartal, M. T. (2021). The macro economic drivers of non-performing loans (NPL): Evidence from selected countries with heterogeneous panel analysis. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(2), 986-999.
• Beck, R., Jakubik, P., & Piloiu, A. (2015). Key determinants of non-performing loans: New evidence from a global sample. Open Economies Review, 26(3), 525-550.
• Blanco R., & Gimeno R. (2012). Determinants of default ratios in the segment of loans to households in Spain. Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1210, 1-40.
• Clichici, D., & Colesnicova, T. (2014). The impact of macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans in the Republic of Moldova. Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, (1), 73-78.
• Curak, M., Pepur, S., & Poposki, K. (2013). Determinants of non-performing loans–evidence from Southeastern European banking systems. Banks and Bank Systems, 8, 45-53.
• Çan, E. (2014). Sorunlu kredi transferi ve fiyatlaması üzerine bir çalışma. Bankacılar Dergisi, 90, 3-18.
• Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
• Erdaş, M. (2009). Do macroeconomic variables have a symmetric or asymmetric effect on non-performing loans? Evidence from Turkey. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 370-392.
• Euronews, (2024). Türkiye gelir dağılımı eşitsizliğinde Avrupa’da ilk sırada. https://tr.euronews.com/2024/03/12/gelir-dagilimi-esitsizligi-avrupa-lideri-turkiye-dunyada-130-ulke-icinde-28 sirada#:~:text=Gelir%20da%C4%9F%C4%B1l%C4%B1m%C4%B1%20e%C5%9Fitsizli%C4%9Fi%20(Gini%20katsay%C4%B1s%C4%B1%2C%202022)&text=T%C3%BCrkiye'nin%20arkas%C4%B1ndan%20Bulgaristan%20(38,(24%2C9)%20geliyor.
• Farooq, M. O., Elseoud, M., Turen, S., & Abdulla, M. (2019). Causes of non-performing loans: The experience of gulf cooperation council countries. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 6(4), 1955-1974.
• Fawaz, F., Rahnama, M. ve Valcarcel, V. J. (2014). A refinement of the relationship between economic growth and income inequality. Applied Economics, 46(27), 3351-3361.
• Gashi, F., & Fetai, B. (2023). The impact of monetary policy on bank risk in the Western Balkan countries. SEEU Review, 18(2), 4-18.
• Ghosh, A. (2015). Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states. Journal of financial stability, 20, 93-104.
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
• Imf, (International Monetary Fundi), Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide, Washington D.C., 2006, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fsi/guide/2006/pdf/fsiFT.pdf,
• Islatince, H., & Firat, A. M. (2022). Examination of the relationship between non-performing loans and macro-economic variables in banking sector: The case of Turkey (2003-2020). International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management and Sciences, 11(3), 658–679.
• Jakubík, P., & Reininger, T. (2013). Determinants of nonperforming loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. Focus on European Economic Integration, 3, 48-66.
• Johansen, S., (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
• Jouini, J., & Obeid, R., (2020). Determinants of the Non-Performing Loans in the Arab Banking Sector: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data Models. Arab Monetary Fund, 1-37.
• Karacan, A. İ. (2002). Türk bankacılık sisteminin temel sorunları ve bankacılık sektörünün yeniden yapılandırılması. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 17(192), 32-40.
• Koyuncu, C., & Saka, B. (2011). Takipteki kredilerin özel sektöre verilen krediler ve yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (31), 113-124.
• Kuzucu, N., & Kuzucu, S. (2019). What drives non-performing loans? Evidence from emerging and advanced economies during pre-and post-global financial crisis. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(8), 1694-1708.
• Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
• Mazreku, I., Morina, F., Misiri, V., Spiteri, J. V., & Grima, S. (2018). Determinants of the level of non-performing loans in commercial banks of transition countries. European Research Studies Journal, 21(3), pp. 3-13.
• Mondal, T. (2016). Sensitivity of non-performing loan to macroeconomic variables: Empirical evidence from banking industry of Bangladesh. Global Journal of Management and Business Research. 16(4), 21-28.
• Murumba, I. (2013). The relationship between real GDP and non-performing loans: Evidence from Nigeria (1995–2009). International Journal of capacity building in education and Management, 2(1), 1-7.
• Nkusu, M. M. (2011). Nonperforming loans and macrofinancial vulnerabilities in advanced economies. International Monetary Fund, 11/161, 1-27.
• Nolan, B. ve Maitre, B. (2008). Economic growth and income inequality: Setting the context. Social Indicators Research Series, 32, 27–41.
• Nurja, I., & Kufo, A. (2016). Non-performing loans and government taxes in the Albanian banking system. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 7(6), 129-132.
• Ouhibi, S., Ezzeddine, S., & Hammami, A. (2017). Non-performing loans and systemic risk: Empirical evidence to Tunisia and Morocco. Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, 7(2), 1-7.
• Önder, Ş., Önder, H. ve Akbaş, F. (2019). Katılım bankacılığında takipteki fonların makroekonomik belirleyicileri: Türkiye örneği. Türkiye Katılım Bankaları Birliği, Katılım Finansmanında Yeni Yaklaşımlar-II, 11, 137-161.
• Panzera, D. ve Postiglione, P. (2022). The impact of regional inequality on Economic Growth: A spatial econometric approach. Regional Studies, 56(5), 687–702. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2021.1910228.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
• Polat, A. (2018). Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans: Case of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(3), 693-709.
• Roman, A., & Bilan, I. (2015). An empirical analysis of the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans in EU28 banking sector. Revista Economică, 67(2), 108-127.
• Saba, I., Kouser, R., & Azeem, M. (2012). Determinants of non performing loans: Case of US banking sector. The Romanian Economic Journal, 44(6), 125-136.
• Sevinç, D. (2021). Türkiye’de takipteki banka kredileri ile makroekonomik faktörler arasındaki ilişki. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 8(2), 609-629.
• Sharma, H., Andhalkar, A., Ajao, O., & Ogunleye, B. (2024). Analysing the influence of macroeconomic factors on credit risk in the UK banking sector. Analytics, 3(1), 63-83.
• Shingjergji, A. (2013). The impact of macroeconomic variables on the non performing loans in the Albanian banking system during 2005-2012. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 2(9), 335.
• Siddiquee, M.N.A., & Reza, N., 2020. Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans for selected developing economies, IUBAT Review, 3(1), 15-24.
• Škarica, B. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries. Financial theory and practice, 38(1), 37-59.
• Şahbaz, N., & İnkaya, A. (2014). Türk bankacılık sektöründe sorunlu krediler ve makroekonomik etkileri. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(1), 1-14.
• Tekbaş, M. (2022). ASEAN-5 ülkelerinde ekonomik büyüme, finansal gelişme ve gelir eşitsizliği ilişkisi. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 9(2), 717-741.
• Touny, M. A., & Shehab, M. A. (2015). Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans: An empirical study of some Arab countries. American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 7(1), 11-22.
• Yağcılar, G. G., & Demir, S. (2015). Türk bankacılık sektöründe takipteki kredi oranları üzerinde etkili olan faktörlerin belirlenmesi. Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(1), 221-229.
• Yang, Y. ve Greaney, T. M. (2017). Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Journal of Asian Economics, 48, 6-22.
• Yıldırım, Z. (2019). Eğitim harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Journal of Social, Humanities and Administrative Sciences, 5(21), 1367-1375.
• Yurdakul, F. (2014). Macroeconomic modelling of credit risk for banks. Procedia-Social and behavioral sciences, 109, 784-793.
• Zainol, J. M., Nor, A. M., Ibrahim, S. N., & Daud, S. (2018). Macroeconomics determinants of non-performing loans in Malaysia: An ARDL approach. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 8(10), 692-706.
• Zawadzki, A. (2023). Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk on the example of non-performing loans. Central European Economic Journal, 10(57), 275-286.