Jeopolitik Belirsizlik Ortamında TCMB’nin Sözlü Yönlendirme Etkinliği: Nlp ve Var Yaklaşımıyla Bir İnceleme (2018-2026)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, jeopolitik belirsizlik altında Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasının (TCMB) sözlü yönlendirmesinin etkinliğini ve kurumsal anlatısının makro-finansal istikrara etkilerini incelemektedir. Ocak 2018–Şubat 2026 dönemine ait aylık veriler, FinBERT tabanlı metin analizi ve vektör otoregresyon (VAR) modeliyle analiz edilmiştir. TCMB Para Politikası Kurulu (PPK) basın duyuruları sayılaştırılarak bağlamsal duygu kutupluluğunu ölçen Söylem Tonu (NLPSOYLEM) ile normalleştirilmiş risk bağlantılı anahtar kelime yoğunluğunu ölçen İletişim Yoğunluğu (NLPSKOR) göstergeleri oluşturulmuştur. Bu göstergeler, ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama maliyeti, döviz kuru değişimleri ve tüketici enflasyonuyla birlikte VAR sistemine dahil edilmiştir. Logaritması alınmış Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi (LNGPR), sistemin en dışsal değişkeni olarak Cholesky sıralamasında ilk sıraya yerleştirilmiştir. Söylem Tonu, enflasyonun öngörü hatası varyansının %6,15’ini açıklarken ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama maliyetinin payı %0,23’tür. Jeopolitik risk artışlarının ardından iletişim yoğunluğu yükselmekte ve kurumsal ton daha ihtiyatlı hale gelmekte; bu durum eşgüdümlü bir savunmacı iletişim tepkisine işaret etmektedir. İletişim Yoğunluğundaki pozitif bir şok, döviz kurunda istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve aşağı yönlü bir tepki oluşturmakta, Türk lirasındaki değer kaybı baskısını sınırlamakta ve beklentiler kanalı üzerinden hızlı bir aktarım mekanizmasına işaret etmektedir. Genel olarak TCMB iletişimi, piyasa güvenini güçlendirerek ve anlatı yönetimi yoluyla beklentilerin çıpalanmasını destekleyerek para politikası araçlarını tamamlamaktadır.

Keywords

• TCMB
• GPR
• NLP
• Sözel Yönlendirme
• Anlatı Yönetimi

Ethical Statement

" Jeopolitik Belirsizlik Ortamında TCMB’nin Sözel Yönlendirme Etkinliği: Nlp Ve Var Yaklaşımıyla Bir İnceleme (2018-2026) " başlıklı çalışmanın; bilimsel etik kurallarına uygun olarak hazırlandığını, etik kurul izni gerektiren bir yöntem kullanılmadığını, tüm kaynaklara usulüne uygun atıf yapıldığını ve çalışmanın özgün olduğunu beyan ederim.

The Effectiveness of CBRT Forward Guidance under Geopolitical Uncertainty: An NLP- and VAR-Based Analysis (2018–2026)

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of forward guidance by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) and the effects of its institutional narrative on macro-financial stability under geopolitical uncertainty. Monthly data for January 2018–February 2026 are analysed using FinBERT-based text analysis and a vector autoregression (VAR) model. CBRT Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) press releases are quantified to construct Discourse Tone (NLPSOYLEM), capturing contextual sentiment polarity, and Communication Intensity (NLPSKOR), measuring normalised risk-related keyword density. These indicators enter the VAR alongside the weighted average funding cost, exchange-rate changes, and consumer price inflation. The log-transformed Geopolitical Risk Index (LNGPR) is placed first in the Cholesky ordering as the system’s most exogenous variable. Discourse Tone accounts for 6.15% of inflation’s forecast error variance, compared with 0.23% for the weighted average funding cost. Following increases in geopolitical risk, Communication Intensity rises and institutional tone becomes more cautious, indicating a coordinated defensive communication response. A positive Communication Intensity shock produces a statistically significant downward exchange-rate response, limits depreciation pressures on the Turkish lira, and signals rapid transmission through the expectations channel. Overall, CBRT communication complements monetary policy instruments by strengthening market confidence and supporting the anchoring of expectations through narrative governance.

Keywords

• CBRT
• GPR
• NLP
• Verbal Guidance
• Narrative Governance

Ethical Statement

I declare that the study titled "The Effectiveness of the Central Bank of Turkey's Verbal Guidance in an Environment of Geopolitical Uncertainty: An Examination with NLP and VAR Approaches (2018-2026)" was prepared in accordance with scientific ethical rules, that no method requiring ethical committee approval was used, that all sources were properly cited, and that the study is original.

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