Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketiminin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri

Year 2017, , 299 - 313, 01.07.2017

Melike Atay Polat

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.298012

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ile enerji tüketimi arasındaki ilişki, 1980-2013 dönemi için yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testleri ile incelenmektedir. Ele alınan değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönü ve büyüklüğünü araştırmak üzere Gregory- Hansen eşbütünleşme ile hata düzeltme modeli ve uzun dönem katsayılarının tahmini için ise DOLS, FMOLS ve CCR analizleri uygulanmaktadır. Analiz sonucunda, enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmektedir. Ayrıca, hata terimi katsayısının negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı çıkması, değişkenler arasında kısa dönemde oluşan dengesizliğin uzun dönemde ortadan kalktığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Gregory-Hansen Eşbütünleşme Testi, Eşbütünleşme Tahmin Yöntemleri

The Effects of Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Turkey under Structural Breaks

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Turkey is examined by unit roots and cointegration tests taking structural breaks for the period 1980-2013. In order to investigate the direction and magnitude of the relationship between the variables involved, the Gregory-Hansen cointegration and error correction model and DOLS, FMOLS and CCR analyzes to estimate long term coefficients are used. As a result of the analysis, a long-term positive and statistically significant relationship is found between energy consumption and economic growth. In addition, error term coefficient which is negative and statistically significant indicates that short-term disequilibrium between the variables has remained in the long run.

Keywords

Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test, Cointegration Prediction Methods

References

• Akarca, A. T., & Long, T. V. (1980). On the relationship between energy and GNP: a reexamination. The Journal of Energy and Development, 326-331.
• Akinlo, A.E. (2008). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from 11 Sub-Sahara African Countries. Energy Economics, 30, 2391-2400.
• Aktan, C. C., & Tunç, M. (1998). 21. Yüzyıla Girerken Bilgi Toplumu ve Türkiye. Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, 19, 118-134.
• Altinay, G., & Karagol, E. (2004). Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey. Energy Economics, 26(6), 985-994.
• Altinay, G., & Karagol, E. (2005). Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Turkey. Energy Economics, 27(6), 849-856.
• Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2010). Energy consumption and growth in South America: Evidence from a panel error correction model. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1421-1426.
• Aydın, C., & Esen, Ö. (2016). Threshold Effects of Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Turkey. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 7(3), 370-382.
• Aydın, C., & Esen, Ö. (2017). Does Too Much Energy Consumption Harm Economic Growth for Turkish Republics in The Transition Process? New Evidence on Threshold Effects. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(2), 34-43.
• Bayrak, M., & Esen, Ö. (2014). Türkiye’nin Enerji Açığı Sorunu ve Çözümüne Yönelik Arayışlar. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(3), 139-158.
• Berndt, E. R., & Wood, D. O. (1975). Technology, prices, and the derived demand for energy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 57(3), 259-268.
• Cheng, B. S., & Lai, T. W. (1997). An Investigation of Co-integration and Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in Taiwan. Energy Economic, 19(4), 435-444.
• Dünya Bankası (2017). World Development Indicators (WDI). The World Bank. (Erişim: 15.04.2017), http://data.worldbank.org/
• Eggoh, J. C., Bangake, C. & Rault, C. (2011). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited in African Countries. Energy Policy, 39, 7408-7421.
• Erdoğan, S. & Gürbüz, S. (2014). Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 32, 79-87.
• Esen, Ö., & Bayrak, M. (2017). Does more energy consumption support economic growth in net energy importing countries?. Journal of Economics Finance and Administrative Science, 22(42). http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-01-2017-0015
• Esseghir, A., & Khouni, L. H. (2014). Economic growth, energy consumption and sustainable development: The case of the Union for the Mediterranean countries. Energy, 71, 218-225.
• ETKB (2016). Mavi Kitap 2016. Ankara: Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı.
• Fuinhas, J. A. & Marques, A. C. (2012). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach (1965–2009). Energy Economics, 34, 511–517.
• Ghosh, S. I. (2002). Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in India, Energy Policy, 30(2), 125-129.
• Glasure, Y. U. & Lee, A. R. (1997). Cointegration, Error-Correction, and the Relationship Between GDP and Energy: The case of South Korea and Singapore. Resource Energy Economics, 20, 17-25.
• Gövdere, B. & Can, M. (2015). Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örnekleminde Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 1(2), 101-114.
• Gregory, A. W. & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126.
• Herrerias, M. J., Joyeux, R. & Girardin, E. (2013). Short-and Long-run Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence across Regions in China. Applied Energy, 112, 1483-1492.
• Hou, Q. (2009). The Relationship Between Energy Consuption Growths And Economic Growth In China. International Journal Of Eonomics And Finance, 1(2), 232-237.
• Iyke, B. N. (2015). Electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria: A revisit of the energy-growth debate. Energy Economics, 51, 166-176.
• Kaplan, M., Öztürk, İ. & Kalyoncu, H. (2011). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey:Cointegration and Causality Analysis. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 14, 31-41.
• Karluk, S. R. (2006). Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1980 Öncesi ve Sonrası Yaşanan Krizlere Yönelik İstikrar Politikaları. Edt. Halil Seyidoğlu ve Rıfat Yıldız. İstanbul: Arıkan Basım Yayım Dağıtım.
• Kraft, J. & Kraft, A. (1978). On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development, 401-403.
• Mozumder, P. & Marathe, A. (2007). Causality Relationship between Electiricty Consumption and GDP in Bangladesh, Energy Policy, 35(1), 395-402.
• Mucuk, M. & Uysal, D. (2009). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme. Maliye Dergisi, 105-115.
• Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro İktisat Politikalarının Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Gelişmiş Ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma. Doktora Tezi. Kayseri: Erciyes Üniversitesi.
• Ozturk, I. (2010). A Literature Survey on Energy-Growth Nexus. Energy Policy, 38, 340-349.
• Öztürk, M. B., Kurt Gümüş, G., Taşkın, F. D. & Çağlı, E. Ç. (2013). Petrol ve Doğalgaz Fiyatları İle İmalat ve Kimya-Petrol-Plastik Sektörlerinin Endeksleri Arasındaki İlişki. Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(2), 64-74.
• Paul, S., & Bhattacharya, R. N. (2004). Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: a note on conflicting results. Energy Economics, 26(6), 977-983.
• Payne, J. E. (2010). A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature. Applied Energy, 87(3), 723-731.
• Samuel, Y. A., Manu, O., & Wereko, T. B. (2013). Determinants of Energy Consumption: A Review. International Journal of Management Sciences, 1(12), 482-487.
• Shahbaz, M., & Lean, H. H. (2012). The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan. Energy, 39(1), 146-153.
• Shiu, A., & Lam, P. L. (2004). Electricity consumption and economic growth in China. Energy Policy, 32(1), 47-54.
• Soytas, U. & Sarı, R. (2003). Energy Consumption and GDP: Causality Relationship in G-7 countries and Emerging Markets. Energy Economics, 25, 33-37.
• Soytas, U. & Sarı, R. (2006). Energy Consumption and Income in G7 Countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28, 739-750.
• Soytas, U., Sarı, R. & Ozdemir, O. (2001). Energy Consumption and GDP Relation in Turkey: A Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Analysis. Global Business and Technology Association, 1, 838–844.
• Stern, D. I. (2000). A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy. Energy Economics, 22(2), 267-283.
• Tsani, S. Z. (2010). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis for Greece. Energy Economics, 32, 3, 582-590.
• Üzümcü, A. & Dikkaya, M. (2010). Küresel Finansal Krizinin Türkiye’nin Dış Ticareti Üzerindeki Etkileri: 2001 Krizi İle Bir Karşılaştırma. Der. İrfan Kalaycı. İstanbul: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
• Wang, S.S., Zhou, D.Q., Zhou, P. & Wang, Q.W. (2011). CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China: A Panel Data Analysis. Energy Policy, 39, 4870-4875.
• Yang, H. (2000). A Note on The Causal Relationship Between Energy and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 22, 309-317. Yılancı, V. (2009). Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin İşsizlik Histerisinin Sınanması. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2), 324-335.
• Yu, E. S. H. & Choi, J. Y. (1985). The Causal Relationship between Energy and GNP: An International Comparison. Journal of Energy and Development, 10(2), 249-272.
• Yu, E. S. H., & Hwang, B. K. (1984). The relationship between energy and GNP: further results. Energy Economics, 6(3), 186-190.
• Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further Evidence of the Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock and The Unit Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 251-270.