Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketiminin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ile enerji tüketimi arasındaki ilişki, 1980-2013 dönemi için yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testleri ile incelenmektedir. Ele alınan değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönü ve büyüklüğünü araştırmak üzere Gregory- Hansen eşbütünleşme ile hata düzeltme modeli ve uzun dönem katsayılarının tahmini için ise DOLS, FMOLS ve CCR analizleri uygulanmaktadır. Analiz sonucunda, enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmektedir. Ayrıca, hata terimi katsayısının negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı çıkması, değişkenler arasında kısa dönemde oluşan dengesizliğin uzun dönemde ortadan kalktığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Büyüme,Enerji Tüketimi,Gregory-Hansen Eşbütünleşme Testi,Eşbütünleşme Tahmin Yöntemleri

The Effects of Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Turkey under Structural Breaks

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Turkey is examined by unit roots and cointegration tests taking structural breaks for the period 1980-2013. In order to investigate the direction and magnitude of the relationship between the variables involved, the Gregory-Hansen cointegration and error correction model and DOLS, FMOLS and CCR analyzes to estimate long term coefficients are used. As a result of the analysis, a long-term positive and statistically significant relationship is found between energy consumption and economic growth. In addition, error term coefficient which is negative and statistically significant indicates that short-term disequilibrium between the variables has remained in the long run.

Keywords

• Economic Growth,Energy Consumption,Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test,Cointegration Prediction Methods

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