Kendine Aşırı Güven ve Ölçme Yöntemleri: Davranışsal Finans Kapsamında Bir Literatür İncelemesi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, davranışsal finans ve psikoloji literatürlerinde yer alan çalışmalara oldukça sık konu olmuş kendine aşırı güven davranışsal önyargısı ve bu önyargının ölçülme veya açığa çıkarılma yöntemleri incelenmiştir. Kendine aşırı güven, bireylerin kendi yetenek ve bilgi düzeylerine gerçekçi olmayan bir şekilde aşırı güvenmeleri olarak ifade edilebilir. Kendine aşırı güvenin ölçülmesi bağlamında literatürde yer alan çalışmalar incelendiğinde birbirinden oldukça farklı yöntemlerin kullanıldığı görülmektedir. Bu yöntemlerden özellikle yatırımcıların kendine aşırı güvenleri ölçülmek istendiği durumlarda ve diğer psikolojik araştırmalarda kalibrasyon skoruna dayalı güven aralıklı anket yönteminin ve davranışsal kurumsal finans kapsamında yönetsel önyargının ölçülmesi gerektiği durumlarda ise ilk defa Malmendier ve Tate tarafından kullanılan opsiyon kullanımı temelli yaklaşımın tercih edildiği görülmektedir. Çalışma sonucunda kendine aşırı güvenin ölçümünde kullanılacak ölçek konusunda henüz tam bir fikir birliğinin olmadığı görülmüştür.

Keywords

• davranışsal finans,psikolojik önyargılar,önyargıların ölçülmesi,Kendine aşırı güven

Overconfidence and Measurement Methods: A Literature Review in the Context of Behavioral Finance

Abstract

In this study, overconfidence behavioral bias, which is frequently mentioned in the behavioral finance and psychology literatures, and measurement methods of this bias are examined. Overconfidence can be expressed as an unrealistic trust of individuals in their ability and knowledge. When the studies  in terms of measuring overconfidence in the literature are examined, it is seen that quite different methods are used. These methods, especially when the overconfidence of investors is to be measured, and in other psychological studies, it is seen that the use of the confidence-interval survey method based on the calibration score is preferred.  And when the managerial bias is to be measured within the scope of behavioral corporate finance it is seen that the use of the option use-based approach which is used by Malmendier and Tate for the first time is preferred. As a result of the study, it has been observed that there is no complete consensus on the scale to be used for the measurement of overconfidence.

Keywords

• Overconfidence,Behavioral finance,Psychological biases,Measurement of biases

References

1. Adam, T. R., Fernando, C. S., & Golubeva, E. (2015). Managerial overconfidence and corporate risk management. Journal of Banking & Finance, 60, 195-208.
2. Adams, J. K. ve Adams, P. A. (1961). Realism of confidence judgments. Psychological review, 68(1), 33.
3. Alpert, M., & Raiffa, H. (1982). Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
4. Arnott, D. (1998). A taxonomy of decision biases. Monash University, School of Information Management and Systems, Caulfield.
5. Ataullah, A., Vivian, A., & Xu, B. (2017). Time-varying managerial overconfidence and corporate debt maturity structure. The European Journal of Finance, 1-31.
6. Aypay, A. (2008), Gerçekçi Olmayan İyimserlik Kuramı, TSA, Yıl 12, S. 1, (Erişim: 11/10/2014) http://www.tsadergisi.org/tsadergi/arsiv/Nisan2008/2.pdf
7. Baker, H. K., & Nofsinger, J. R. (2002). Psychological biases of investors. Financial services review, 11(2), 97.
8. Baker, H. K., & Nofsinger, J. R. (Eds.). (2010). Behavioral finance: investors, corporations, and markets (Vol. 6). John Wiley & Sons.

9. Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The quarterly journal of economics, 116(1), 261-292.
10. Barros, L. A. B. D. C. ve Da Silveira, A. D. M. (2007). Overconfidence, managerial optimism and the determinants of capital structure. Available at SSRN 953273.
11. Bazerman, M., 1994. Judgment in Managerial Decision Making. Wiley, New York
12. Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R. ve Harvey, C. R. (2007). Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies (No. w13711). National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w13711.pdf
13. Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R. ve Harvey, C. R. (2013). Managerial Miscalibration. The Quarterly journal of economics, 128(4), 1547-1584.
14. Bengtsson, C., Persson, M., & Willenhag, P. (2005). Gender and overconfidence. Economics letters, 86(2), 199-203.
15. Benos, A. V. (1998). Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders. Journal of Financial Markets, 1(3), 353-383.
16. Biais, B., Hilton, D., Mazurier, K. ve Pouget, S. (2005). Judgemental overconfidence, self-monitoring, and trading performance in an experimental financial market. The Review of economic studies, 72(2), 287-312.
17. Bierman, H. ve Smidt, Jr; S. (1970), Yatırım Projelerinin İktisadi Analizi ve Finansmanı, Var, T. (çev.), İstanbul: Güzel İstanbul Matbaası.
18. Billett, M. T. ve Qian, Y. (2008). Are overconfident CEOs born or made? Evidence of self-attribution bias from frequent acquirers. Management Science, 54(6), 1037-1051.
19. Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V. ve Tversky, A. (1996). Overconfidence in probability and Frekans (Sıklık) judgments: A critical examination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65(3), 212-219.
20. Brinson, G.P., Singer, B. D. and Beebower, G. L (19 91) Determinants of Portfolio Performance II, An Update, Financial Analysts Journal ,47(3), 40-48
21. Burnside, C., Han, B., Hirshleifer, D., & Wang, T. Y. (2011). Investor overconfidence and the forward premium puzzle. The Review of Economic Studies, 78(2), 523-558.
22. Caballé, J. ve Sákovics, J. (2003). Speculating against an overconfident market. Journal of Financial Markets, 6(2), 199-225.
23. Cambridge, R. M. ve Shreckengost, R. C. (1978). Are You Sure?: The Subjective Probability Assessment Test. Information Science Center, Office of Training, Central Intelligence Agency.
24. Camerer, C., & Lovallo, D. (1999). Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach. The American Economic Review, 89(1), 306-318.
25. Campbell, T. C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherford, J. ve Stanley, B. W. 2011. CEO optimism and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 101: 695-712.
26. Campbell, W. K., Goodie, A. S., & Foster, J. D. (2004). Narcissism, confidence, and risk attitude. Journal of behavioral decision making, 17(4), 297-311.
27. Chen, G., Crossland, C., & Luo, S. (2015). Making the same mistake all over again: CEO overconfidence and corporate resistance to corrective feedback. Strategic Management Journal, 36(10), 1513-1535.
28. Cheng, P. Y. (2007). The trader interaction effect on the impact of overconfidence on trading performance: An empirical study. The Journal of Behavioral Finance, 8(2), 59-69.
29. Choi, D. ve Lou, D., 2008. A test of self-serving attribution bias, evidence from mutual funds. Yale School of Management (unpublished manuscript).
30. Conger, R. F., & Wolstein, C. R. (2004). Managing overconfidence in pricing. Emphasis, (2), 10-13.
31. Cronqvist, H., Makhija, A. K. ve Yonker, S. E. (2012). Behavioral consistency in corporate finance: CEO personal and corporate leverage. Journal of financial economics, 103(1), 20-40.
32. Cross, K. P. (1977). Not can, but will college teaching be improved?. New Directions for Higher Education, (17), 1-15.
33. Danıel, K., Hirshleifer, D., Subrahmanyam, A., 1998. A theory of overconfidence, self-attribution, and security market under and over reaction, J. Finance, (53), 1839–1885.
34. De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. H. (1995). Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective. Handbooks in operations research and management science, 9, 385-410.
35. Diedrichsen J. Shadmehr R. (2005). Detecting and adjusting for artifacts in fMRI time series data . Neuroimage , 27 (3), 624 –34.
36. Dobellı, R. (2011),çev. ARDA (2013). Hatasız Düşünme Sanatı: Yapmamanız gereken 52 düşünce hatası, Doğuş Yayın Grubu.
37. Dunlosky, J., Metcalfe, J. (2009). Metacognition . London: Sage Publications
38. Eshraghi, A. (2011), How does Mutual Fund Manager Overconfidence Impact Mutual Fund Investment Performance?, (Accessed on: 12/9/2015), https://www.cass.city.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/79466/Eshraghi.pdf
39. Fairchld, R. (2010). Behavioural corporate finance: existing research and future directions. International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance, 1(4), 277-293.
40. Fellner, G., & Krügel, S. (2012). Judgmental overconfidence: Three measures, one bias?. Journal of Economic Psychology, 33(1), 142-154.
41. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. ve Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human perception and performance, 3(4), 552.
42. Fitzsimmons, J. R. ve Douglas, E. J. (2005). The impact of overconfidence on entrepreneurial intentions. In AGSE Entrepreneurship Exchange, February, Auckland, N.Z. (Unpublished) http://eprints.qut.edu.au/6490.
43. Forbes, D. P. (2005). Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others?. Journal of business venturing, 20(5), 623-640.
44. Galasso, A., & Simcoe, T. S. (2011). CEO overconfidence and innovation. Management Science, 57(8), 1469-1484.
45. Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B. ve Odean, T. (2002). The positive role of overconfidence and optimism in investment policy. Rodney L Whıte Center For Fınancıal Research-Workıng Papers-. (Accessed on: 22/09/2014) http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.195.7755&rep=rep1&type=pdf
46. Gervaıs, S., Heaton, J. B. ve Odean, T. (2003). Overconfidence, investment policy, and executive stock options. Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Paper, (15-02).
47. Gervaıs, S., Heaton, J. B. ve Odean, T. (2011). Overconfidence, compensation contracts, and capital budgeting. The Journal of Finance, 66(5), 1735-1777.
48. Gıgerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U. ve Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological review, 98(4), 506.
49. Glaser, M. ve Weber, M. (2007). Overconfidence and trading volume. The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 32(1), 1-36.
50. Gort, C., 2007. Overconfidence and active management: an empirical study across Swiss pension plans. University of Zurich (unpublished manuscript).
51. Hackbarth, D. (2007), Managerial optimism, overconfidence, and capital structure decisions, Working paper.
52. Hackbarth, D. (2008). Managerial traits and capital structure decisions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 43(04), 843-881.
53. Hao, Y., LIU, X., & LIN, C. N. (2005). An Empirical Research on the General Manager Overconfidence and Investment Decision for the Listed Companies [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 5, 142-148.
54. Hazard, T. H. ve Peterson, C. R. (1973). Odds Versus Probabilities for Categorical Events (No. TR-73-2). DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA
55. Hırshleıfer, D., Low, A. ve Teoh, S. H. (2012). Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?.The Journal of Finance, 67(4), 1457-1498.
56. Howard, M. E. (1983). The causes of war and other essays. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
57. Hribar, P., & Yang, H. (2016). CEO overconfidence and management forecasting. Contemporary Accounting Research, 33(1), 204-227.
58. Huisman, R., van der Sar, N. L., & Zwinkels, R. C. (2012). A new measurement method of investor overconfidence. Economics Letters, 114(1), 69-71.
59. Hynes, M. E. ve Vanmarcke, E. H. (1976). Reliability of embankment performance predictions. Department of Civil Engineering, Masachusetts Inst. of Technology.
60. Ibbotson, R.G. and Kaplan, P. D. (2000) Does Asset allocation Policy Explain 40, 90 or 100 percent of performance? Financial Analysts Journal Vol. 56, no, January- February pp 26-33
61. Jeong-Ho, K., & Daecheon, Y. (2018). Managerial Overconfidence, Self-Attribution Bias, and Downwardly Sticky Investment: Evidence from Korea. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 54(1), 144-161. doi:10.1080/1540496X.2017.1398643
62. Johnson, D. D. P. (2004). Overconfidence and war: The havoc and glory of positive illusions. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press
63. Jonsson, A. C. ve Allwood, C. M. (2003). Stability and variability in the realism of confidence judgments over time, content domain, and gender. Personality and Individual Farks, 34(4), 559-574.
64. Kahyaoğlu, M. T. (2012). Demografik ve sosyo-ekonomik faktörlerin aşırı güven bilişsel önyargısı üzerindeki etkisi: İMKB bireysel hisse senedi yatırımcıları üzerine bir analiz. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 49(563), 73.
65. Keh, H. T., Foo, M. D., & Lim, B. C. (2002). Opportunity evaluation under risky conditions: The cognitive processes of entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurship theory and practice, 27(2), 125-148.
66. Keren, G. (1997). On the calibration of probability judgments: Some critical comments and alternative perspectives. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10(3), 269-278.
67. Klauss, P., C., (2006), Capital Investment Decisions with Managerial Overconfidence and Regret Aversion, PhD Thesis, University of Bath School of Management.
68. Klayman, J., Soll, J., Gonzalez - Vallejo, C. ve Barlas, S. (1999). Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, 216 – 247.
69. Korıat, A., Lichtenstein, S. ve Fischhoff, B. (1980). Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human learning and memory, 6(2), 107.
70. Korkmaz, T., & ÇELİK, E. İ. (2007). Davranışsal finans modellerinden aşırı güven hipotezinin geçerliliği: İMKB’de bir uygulama. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 22(261), 137-154.
71. Kufepaksi, Mahatma., (2007), “The Effect of Overconfident Behavior on the Process of Forming and Correcting The Values of The Security in Market Experiment: The Implication of Self Deceptive Behavior in a Security Market”, Dissertation, unpublished.
72. Küçüksille, E., Özmutaf, N. M., & Mizrahi, R. (2016). The Overconfıdence Perceptıons Of Indıvıdual Investors In Concept Of Socıo Demographıc Factors: Evıdence From Izmır. Suleyman Demirel University Journal Of Faculty Of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 21(3), 1033-1041.
73. Kyle, A. S., and Wang, F. A. (1997). Speculation duopoly with agreement to disagree: Can overconfidence survive the market test? J. Finance, 52, 2073–2090
74. Laı, L. (2011), Behavioral biases in corporate financial decision making, Bachelor Thesis Finance, Tilburg University, International Business.
75. Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of personality and social psychology, 32(2), 311.
76. Latumahina, D. (2010), Danger of Overconfidence, https://www.lifeoptimizer.org/2010/05/03/danger-of-overconfidence/ (Accessed on: 06/12/2017)
77. Lıu, Y. ve Taffler, R. (2008). CEO overconfidence in M&A decision making and its impact on firm performance. In Annual Conference of the French Finance Association (pp. 20-22).
78. Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. & Phillips, L.D. (1982). Calibration of subjective probabilities: The state of the art up to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334). New York: Cambridge University Press.
79. Lichtenstein, S. ve Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?.Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20(2), 159-183.
80. Malmendıer, U. ve Tate, G. (2002). Does CEO overconfidence drive corporate acquisitions? Working paper, Harvard University.
81. Malmendıer, U. ve Tate, G. (2005a). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. The journal of finance, 60(6), 2661-2700.
82. Malmendıer, U. ve Tate, G. (2005b). Does overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measures revisited. European Financial Management, 11(5), 649-659.
83. Malmendıer, U. ve Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction. Journal of financial Economics, 89(1), 20-43.
84. Malmendıer, U., Tate, G. ve Yan, J. (2011). Overconfidence and early‐life experiences: the effect of managerial traits on corporate financial policies. The Journal of finance, 66(5), 1687-1733.
85. Marotta, D., J. (2008), Behavioral Finance: Overconfidence, http://www.marottaonmoney.com/behavioral-finance-overconfidence/ (Accessed on: 10//12/2017)
86. Mcclelland, A. ve F. Bolger (1994), The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and models 1980-1993, in George Wright and Peter Ayton, eds.: Subjective Probability (Wiley, Chichester).
87. Menkhoff, L., Schmidt, U. ve Brozynski, T. (2006). The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence. European Economic Review, 50(7), 1753-1766.
88. Mıchaılova, J. (2010). Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets. (Accessed on: 10/02/2015) https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30579/1/MPRA_paper_30579.pdf
89. Molenberghs, P., Trautwein, F. M., Böckler, A., Singer, T., & Kanske, P. (2016). Neural correlates of metacognitive ability and of feeling confident: a large-scale fMRI study. Social cognitive and affective neuroscience, 11(12), 1942-1951.
90. Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological review, 115(2), 502.
91. Mullainathan, S., & Thaler, R. H. (2000). Behavioral economics (No. w7948). National Bureau of Economic Research.
92. Murphy, A. H. (1973). A new vector partition of the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12(4), 595-600.
93. Neale, M. A. ve Bazerman, M. H. (1991). Cognition and rationality in negotiation. Free Press.
94. Odean, T. (1998). Volume, volatility, price, and profit when all traders are above average. The Journal of Finance, 53(6), 1887-1934.
95. Oskamp, S. (1965). Overconfidence in case-study judgments. Journal of consulting psychology, 29(3), 261.
96. Palomıno, F. ve Sadrieh, A. (2011). Overconfidence and delegated portfolio management. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 20(2), 159-177.
97. Parker, A. M. ve Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual differences approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18(1), 1-27.
98. Parkinson, M. (1980). The extreme value method for estimating the variance of the rate of return. Journal of business, 61-65.
99. Peng, L., & Xiong, W. (2006). Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning. Journal of Financial Economics, 80(3), 563-602.
100. Pikulina, E. S., Renneboog, L. D. R., Ter Horst, J. R., & Tobler, P. N. (2013). Overconfidence, Effort, and Investment (Replaced by CentER DP 2014-039). CentER Discussion Paper, 2013.
101. Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. Mcgraw-Hill Book Company.
102. Pulford, D. B., (1996), Overconfidence in Human Judgment, PhD thesis. Department of Psychology, University of Leicester.
103. Putz, A., Ruenzi, S., 2008. Overconfidence among professional investors: evidence from mutual fund managers. University of Cologne (unpublished manuscript)
104. Roll, R. (1986). The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers. Journal of business, 197-216.
105. Russo, J. E. ve Schoemaker, P. J. (1992). Managing overconfidence. Sloan Management Review, 33(2), 7-17.
106. Schaefer, P. S., Williams, C. C., Goodie, A. S., & Campbell, W. K. (2004). Overconfidence and the big five. Journal of Research in Personality, 38(5), 473-480.
107. Scheinkman, J. A. ve Xiong, W. (2003). Overconfidence and speculative bubbles. Journal of political Economy, 111(6), 1183-1220.
108. Sen, R. ve Tumarkin, R. (2015) Stocking Up: Executive Optimism, Option Exercise, and Share Retention (March 2, 2015). AFA 2010 Atlanta Meetings Paper; 24th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference 2011 Paper. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1343980 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1343980
109. Shao, X., Wang, L., (2013). Manager’s Irrational Behavior in Corporate Capital Investment Decision-Making, International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management, 3(4), pp. 183-193.
110. Shefrin, H. (2002). Behavioral decision making, forecasting, game theory, and role-play. International journal of forecasting, 18(3), 375-382.
111. Shiller, R. J. (1999). Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system. Handbook of macroeconomics, 1, 1305-1340.
112. Shiller, R. J. (2000), Irrational Exuberance, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Univ. Press.
113. Simon, M., Houghton, S. M. ve Aquino, K. (2000). Cognitive biases, risk perception, and venture formation: How individuals decide to start companies. Journal of business venturing, 15(2), 113-134.
114. Simon, M., & Houghton, S. M. (2003). The relationship between overconfidence and the introduction of risky products: Evidence from a field study. Academy of Management Journal, 46(2), 139-149.
115. Skala, D. (2008). Overconfidence in Psychology and Finance–an Interdisciplinary Literature Review (No. 26386). University Library of Munich, Germany.
116. Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Behavioral decision theory. Annual review of psychology, 28(1), 1-39.
117. Soll, J. B. (1996). Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65(2), 117-137.
118. Statman, M., Thorley, S., & Vorkink, K. (2006). Investor overconfidence and trading volume. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(4), 1531-1565.
119. Stechyshyna, N. (2017). Manager’s Overconfıdence and Risk Taking Aptitudes and The Cross Industry Acquisitions. http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=129513
120. Sutherland, S. (2015), The dangers of overconfidence for ISA and SIPP Investors, (Accessed on: 05/12/2017), https://www.isaco.co.uk/blog/bid/206265/The-dangers-of-overconfidence-for-ISA-and-SIPP-Investors
121. Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers? Acta Psychologica, 47(2), 143-148.
122. Şahin, S., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2014). Overconfidence in Fınance wıth Different Domains: An Interdisciplinary Experimental Approach. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), 253-268.
123. Taylor, S. E. ve Brown, J. D. (1988). Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health. Psychological bulletin, 103(2), 193.
124. Tekin, B. (2015), Firmaların Finansal Kararları Üzerinde Davranışsal Önyargıların Etkisi, Doktora Tezi, Sakarya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Sakarya.
125. Tekin, B. (2016). Firmaların Finansman Kararları: Davranışsal Perspektif. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 8(15), 169-198.
126. Tomak, S., (2013). The Impact Of Overconfıdence On Capıtal Structure In Turkey. International Journal Of Economics And Financial Issues, Vol 3, Iss 2, Pp 512-518 (2013), (2), 512.
127. Trınugroho, I. ve Sembel, R. (2011). Overconfidence and Excessive Trading Behavior: An Experimental Study. International Journal of Business and Management, 6(7), 147.
128. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.
129. Vermeulen, A., 1996, “Declining Androgens with Age: An Overview” In Vermeulen, A. & Oddens, & B. J. (Eds.), Androgens and the Aging Male, 3-14
130. Von Holsteın, C. A. S. S. (1972). Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 8(1), 139-158.
131. Wagenaar, W. A. ve Keren, G. B. (1986). Does the expert know? The reliability of predictions and confidence ratings of experts. In Intelligent decision support in process environments(pp. 87-103). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
132. Wang, F. A. (2001). Overconfidence, investor sentiment, and evolution. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 10(2), 138-170.
133. Wang, F. A., 1998, Strategic trading, asymmetric information and heterogeneous prior beliefs, Journal of Financial Markets, forthcoming.
134. Ward, W. C., & Jenkins, H. M. (1965). The display of information and the judgment of contingency. Canadian Journal of Psychology/Revue canadienne de psychologie, 19(3), 231.
135. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 806.
136. Weinstein, N. D. (1982). Unrealistic optimism about susceptibility to health problems. Journal of behavioral medicine, 5(4), 441-460.
137. Xia, T., Wang, Z. & Li, K. (2014). Financial literacy overconfidence and stock market participation. Social indicators research, 119(3), 1233-1245.
138. Yates, J. F. (1990). Judgment and decision making. Prentice-Hall, Inc.
139. Yates, J.F., H. Shinotsukac, A. L. Patalanod, and H. Sieckhttp, 1998. "Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?" Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 74(2), pp. 89-117.