The Relationship between Political Instability, Energy Security and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis on the Middle Eastern Countries

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between political instability, energy security and economic growth between 1996-2014 in selected 15 Middle Eastern countries. Panel cointegration results show that there is long-term relationship between variables. According to the panel FMOLS results, while 1% increase in energy security risk decreases per capita GDP by 0.41%, 1% increase in political stability increases per capita GDP by 0.25%. According to One-Way Fixed Effect Panel LS (based on period), while 1% increase in energy security risk decreases per capita GDP by 0.62%, 1% increase in political stability increases per capita GDP by 0.35%. The Panel Granger Causality results show that there is bi-directional causality relationship between energy security and GDP per capita, one-way causality relationship from energy security to political stability and from GDP per capita to political stability. These results indicate that energy security and political stability are an important policy issue for the economies of the region.

Keywords

• Political Instability
• Energy Security
• Economic Growth
• Middle East Economies
• Panel Data Analysis
• Panel Cointegration
• FMOLS

Politik İstikrarsızlık, Enerji Güvenliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Orta Doğu Ülkeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, seçili 15 Orta Doğu ülkesinde 1996-2014 yılları arasında politik istikrarsızlık, enerji güvenliği ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Panel eşbütünleşme sonuçları değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını göstermektedir. Panel FMOLS sonuçlarına göre enerji güvenliği riskinde %1 artış kişi başı GSYH’yi %0,41 düşürürken, politik istikrardaki %1 artış kişi başı GSYH’yi %0,25 artırmaktadır. Tek Yönlü Sabit Zaman Etkili Panel EKK sonuçlarına göre enerji güvenliği riskinde %1 artış kişi başı GSYH’yi %0,62 düşürürken, politik istikrardaki %1 artış kişi başı GSYH’yi %0,35 artırmaktadır. Panel Granger Nedensellik sonuçları ise enerji güvenliği ile kişi başı GSYH arasında çift yönlü; enerji güvenliğinden politik istikrara ve kişi başı GSYH’den politik istikrara tek yönlü nedenselliği göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar enerji güvenliği ve politik istikrarın bölge ekonomileri için önemli bir politika meselesi olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Politik İstikrarsızlık
• Enerji Güvenliği
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Orta Doğu Ekonomileri
• Panel Veri Analizi
• Panel Eşbütünleşme
• FMOLS

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