Kendine Aşırı Güven ve Ölçme Yöntemleri: Davranışsal Finans Kapsamında Bir Literatür İncelemesi

Year 2019, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 293 - 308, 20.03.2019

Bilgehan Tekin

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.458306

Cited By: 4

Abstract

Bu
çalışmada, davranışsal finans ve psikoloji literatürlerinde yer alan
çalışmalara oldukça sık konu olmuş kendine aşırı güven davranışsal önyargısı ve
bu önyargının ölçülme veya açığa çıkarılma yöntemleri incelenmiştir. Kendine
aşırı güven, bireylerin kendi yetenek ve bilgi düzeylerine gerçekçi olmayan bir
şekilde aşırı güvenmeleri olarak ifade edilebilir. Kendine aşırı güvenin
ölçülmesi bağlamında literatürde yer alan çalışmalar incelendiğinde birbirinden
oldukça farklı yöntemlerin kullanıldığı görülmektedir. Bu yöntemlerden
özellikle yatırımcıların kendine aşırı güvenleri ölçülmek istendiği durumlarda
ve diğer psikolojik araştırmalarda kalibrasyon skoruna dayalı güven aralıklı
anket yönteminin ve davranışsal kurumsal finans kapsamında yönetsel önyargının
ölçülmesi gerektiği durumlarda ise ilk defa Malmendier ve Tate tarafından
kullanılan opsiyon kullanımı temelli yaklaşımın tercih edildiği görülmektedir.
Çalışma sonucunda kendine aşırı güvenin ölçümünde kullanılacak ölçek konusunda
henüz tam bir fikir birliğinin olmadığı görülmüştür.

Keywords

davranışsal finans, psikolojik önyargılar, önyargıların ölçülmesi, Kendine aşırı güven

Overconfidence and Measurement Methods: A Literature Review in the Context of Behavioral Finance

Abstract

In
this study, overconfidence behavioral bias, which is frequently mentioned in
the behavioral finance and psychology literatures, and measurement methods of
this bias are examined. Overconfidence can be expressed as an unrealistic trust
of individuals in their ability and knowledge. When the studies  in terms of measuring overconfidence in the
literature are examined, it is seen that quite different methods are used.
These methods, especially when the overconfidence of investors is to be
measured, and in other psychological studies, it is seen that the use of the
confidence-interval survey method based on the calibration score is
preferred.  And when the managerial bias
is to be measured within the scope of behavioral corporate finance it is seen
that the use of the option use-based approach which is used by Malmendier and
Tate for the first time is preferred. As a result of the study, it has been
observed that there is no complete consensus on the scale to be used for the
measurement of overconfidence.

Keywords

Overconfidence, Behavioral finance, Psychological biases, Measurement of biases

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