Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Cari Açık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Visegrad Dörtlüsü Örneği

Year 2019, Volume: 7 Issue: 3, 35 - 40, 24.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.466391

Abstract

Bu
çalışmanın amacı cari hesap açığı ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri arasındaki
ilişkiyi Visegrad Dörtlüsü olarak adlandırılan Polonya, Çek Cumhuriyeti,
Macaristan ve Slovakya için belirlemektir. Bu bağlamda oluşturulan ampirik
model, 1993-2015 yıllarını kapsayan bir dönem için panel veri analizi ile test
edilmiştir. Öncelikle değişkenlerin homojenliği ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı
sırasıyla Delta ve CDlm testleri ile araştırılmış ve daha sonra Hadri-Kurozumi
(2012) birim kök testi yapılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki eş-bütünleşme ilişkisinin
varlığı Durbin-H testi ile ispat edildikten sonra Dumetrescu-Hurlin (2012)
nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Uygulama bulgularına göre uzun dönemde, seçili
Visegrad ülkelerinde cari hesap açığından ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir
nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur.

References

  • Akbaş, Y. E., Lebe, F. & Uluyol, O. (2014). Analyzing the relationship among the GDP - Current account deficit and short term capital flows: The case of emerging markets, Journal of Management and Economics, 21(2), 293-303.
  • Akçay, A. & Erataş, F. (2012). Cari açık ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin panel nedensellik analizi ekseninde değerlendirilmesi,http://teacongress.org/papers2012/AKCAY-ERATAS.pdf, 08.04.2016.
  • Arellano, M. (2003). Panel data econometrics advanced texts in econometrics, Great Britain: Oxford University Press.
  • Baltagi, B. H., (2013). Econometric analysis of panel data, England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • Bilcik, V. & Strazay, T. (2006). Functioning of Visegrad four before and after the entry of its members into the EU, Research center SFPA. [cit.1.2.2011]. http://www.sfpa.sk/sk/, 11.02.2017.
  • Breusch, T. & Pagan, A. (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics”, Reviews of Economics Studies, 47, 239-253.
  • Brazova, V.K., Matczak, P. & Takacs, V. (2013). Regional organization study: Visegrad group, Analysis of Civil Security Systems in Europe, Adam Mickiewicz University.
  • Choi, I. (1993). Improving empirical size of the KPSS Test of stationary. Online Access http://hompi.sogang.ac.kr/inchoi/workingpaper/in_choi-jetem-_revision_2.pdf, 11.02.2017.
  • De Mello, L., Padoan, P. C. & Rousová, L. (2011). The growth effect of current-account reversals, http://www.voxeu.org/article/growth-effect-current-account-reversals, 08.04.2016.
  • Dumetriscu, E.I. & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels,Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. Edwards, S. (2002). Does the current account matter?, Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel, (editors), The University of Chicago Press.
  • Edwards, S. (2004). Financial ppenness: Sudden stops and current account reversals”, NBER Working Paper, No: 10277.
  • Güloğlu, B. & İspir, S. (2009). Yeni gelişmeler ışığında Türkiye’de satın alma gücü paritesi önsavının panel birim kök sınaması, Pamukkale University CASE-Economics Department Publishings.
  • Güloğlu, B. & İvrendi, M., (2010). Output fluctuations: Transitory or permanent? The case of Latin America, Applied Economics Letters, 17, 381-386.
  • Hadri, K. & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor, Economics Letter, 115, 31-34.
  • Hepaktan, E. & Çınar, S. (2012). OECD ülkelerinde büyüme-cari işlemler dengesi ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 12(1), 43-58.
  • Horvath, P. (2004). Central Europe and its integration efforts, In Slovenská politologická revue, číslo 2.
  • Kandil, M. & Greene, J. (2002). The impact of cyclical factors on the U.S. balance of payments, IMF Working Paper, No.45.
  • Kee, C. H., Wong. S. C. & Siok, K. S. (2011). An empirical study on the convergence of current account in emerging East-Asian countries, 2011 International Conference on Sociality and Economics Development, IPEDR, 10, 308-312.
  • Kostakoğlu, S. F. & Dibo, M. (2011). Türkiye’de cari açık ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin VAR yöntemi ile analizi, Anadolu International Conference in Economics II, June 15-17, Eskişehir, Turkey.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, M. G. & Razin, A. (1996). Current account sustainability, Princeton Studies in International Finance, 81, 1-78.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro iktisat politikalarının tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkisi: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için bir karşılaştırma, Unpublished Doctorate Dissertation, Erciyes University, Institute of Social Sciences.
  • Pehe, J. (2004). Will the Visegrad cooperation terminate?, Visegrad Info. www.visegradinfo.com, 11.02.2017.
  • Pesaran, H. M., (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels, Working Paper, No:0435, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, H. M., (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, H. M. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50–93.
  • Pesaran, H. M., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error crosssection independence, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Prasad, E. S., Raghuram G. R. & Subramanian, A. (2007). Foreign capital and economic growth, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (1), 153-209.
  • Sul, D., Phillips, P. C. B. & Choi, C. Y. (2005). Prewhitening bias in HAC estimation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67, 517-546. Telatar, O. M. & Terzi, H. (2009). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve cari işlemler dengesi ilişkisi, Atatürk Üniversitesi College of Administrative Sciences and Economics Journal, 23(2), 119-134.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. & Temelli, F. (2014). Ekonomik büyüme ile cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki ilişki: BRICS ve MINT (1992-2013), Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(19), 201-224.
  • Yılmaz, Ö. & Akıncı, M. (2011). İktisadi büyüme ile cari işlemler bilançosu arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği,Atatürk Üniversitesi Institute of Social Sciences Journal, 15(2), 363-377.

The Causality Between Current Account Deficit and Economic Growth: The Case of Visegrad Four

Year 2019, Volume: 7 Issue: 3, 35 - 40, 24.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.466391

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the causality between the
current account deficit and economic growth for Visegrad Four (Poland, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Slovakia). In this context, an empirical model was developed
in the scope of the panel data analysis using annual data for the period of
1993-2015. Firstly, heterogeneity of the variables was investigated using the
delta test, and then cross section dependency and unit root were examined
respectively by the CDlm test and Hadri-Kurozumi (2012) test. After the
existence of the cointegration relationship between the series was proved by
using the Durbin H cointegration test, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test
was applied. According to the empirical results, in the long run there is one-way
causality from current account deficit to the economic growth in Visegrad Four.

References

  • Akbaş, Y. E., Lebe, F. & Uluyol, O. (2014). Analyzing the relationship among the GDP - Current account deficit and short term capital flows: The case of emerging markets, Journal of Management and Economics, 21(2), 293-303.
  • Akçay, A. & Erataş, F. (2012). Cari açık ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin panel nedensellik analizi ekseninde değerlendirilmesi,http://teacongress.org/papers2012/AKCAY-ERATAS.pdf, 08.04.2016.
  • Arellano, M. (2003). Panel data econometrics advanced texts in econometrics, Great Britain: Oxford University Press.
  • Baltagi, B. H., (2013). Econometric analysis of panel data, England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • Bilcik, V. & Strazay, T. (2006). Functioning of Visegrad four before and after the entry of its members into the EU, Research center SFPA. [cit.1.2.2011]. http://www.sfpa.sk/sk/, 11.02.2017.
  • Breusch, T. & Pagan, A. (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics”, Reviews of Economics Studies, 47, 239-253.
  • Brazova, V.K., Matczak, P. & Takacs, V. (2013). Regional organization study: Visegrad group, Analysis of Civil Security Systems in Europe, Adam Mickiewicz University.
  • Choi, I. (1993). Improving empirical size of the KPSS Test of stationary. Online Access http://hompi.sogang.ac.kr/inchoi/workingpaper/in_choi-jetem-_revision_2.pdf, 11.02.2017.
  • De Mello, L., Padoan, P. C. & Rousová, L. (2011). The growth effect of current-account reversals, http://www.voxeu.org/article/growth-effect-current-account-reversals, 08.04.2016.
  • Dumetriscu, E.I. & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels,Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. Edwards, S. (2002). Does the current account matter?, Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel, (editors), The University of Chicago Press.
  • Edwards, S. (2004). Financial ppenness: Sudden stops and current account reversals”, NBER Working Paper, No: 10277.
  • Güloğlu, B. & İspir, S. (2009). Yeni gelişmeler ışığında Türkiye’de satın alma gücü paritesi önsavının panel birim kök sınaması, Pamukkale University CASE-Economics Department Publishings.
  • Güloğlu, B. & İvrendi, M., (2010). Output fluctuations: Transitory or permanent? The case of Latin America, Applied Economics Letters, 17, 381-386.
  • Hadri, K. & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor, Economics Letter, 115, 31-34.
  • Hepaktan, E. & Çınar, S. (2012). OECD ülkelerinde büyüme-cari işlemler dengesi ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 12(1), 43-58.
  • Horvath, P. (2004). Central Europe and its integration efforts, In Slovenská politologická revue, číslo 2.
  • Kandil, M. & Greene, J. (2002). The impact of cyclical factors on the U.S. balance of payments, IMF Working Paper, No.45.
  • Kee, C. H., Wong. S. C. & Siok, K. S. (2011). An empirical study on the convergence of current account in emerging East-Asian countries, 2011 International Conference on Sociality and Economics Development, IPEDR, 10, 308-312.
  • Kostakoğlu, S. F. & Dibo, M. (2011). Türkiye’de cari açık ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin VAR yöntemi ile analizi, Anadolu International Conference in Economics II, June 15-17, Eskişehir, Turkey.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, M. G. & Razin, A. (1996). Current account sustainability, Princeton Studies in International Finance, 81, 1-78.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro iktisat politikalarının tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkisi: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için bir karşılaştırma, Unpublished Doctorate Dissertation, Erciyes University, Institute of Social Sciences.
  • Pehe, J. (2004). Will the Visegrad cooperation terminate?, Visegrad Info. www.visegradinfo.com, 11.02.2017.
  • Pesaran, H. M., (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels, Working Paper, No:0435, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, H. M., (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, H. M. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50–93.
  • Pesaran, H. M., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error crosssection independence, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Prasad, E. S., Raghuram G. R. & Subramanian, A. (2007). Foreign capital and economic growth, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (1), 153-209.
  • Sul, D., Phillips, P. C. B. & Choi, C. Y. (2005). Prewhitening bias in HAC estimation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67, 517-546. Telatar, O. M. & Terzi, H. (2009). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve cari işlemler dengesi ilişkisi, Atatürk Üniversitesi College of Administrative Sciences and Economics Journal, 23(2), 119-134.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. & Temelli, F. (2014). Ekonomik büyüme ile cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki ilişki: BRICS ve MINT (1992-2013), Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(19), 201-224.
  • Yılmaz, Ö. & Akıncı, M. (2011). İktisadi büyüme ile cari işlemler bilançosu arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği,Atatürk Üniversitesi Institute of Social Sciences Journal, 15(2), 363-377.
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Yağmur Sağlam 0000-0001-6465-0297

Filiz Erataş Sönmez 0000-0003-2052-340X

Publication Date June 24, 2019
Acceptance Date November 15, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 7 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Sağlam, Y., & Erataş Sönmez, F. (2019). The Causality Between Current Account Deficit and Economic Growth: The Case of Visegrad Four. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(3), 35-40. https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.466391

Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.