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Gayrinakdi Krediler ile İmalat Sanayi Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Uygulama

Year 2021, Volume: 9 Issue: 4, 885 - 897, 31.08.2021
https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.819686

Abstract

Türkiye imalat sanayisi büyük ölçüde dışarıdan alınan hammadde, ara mal ve yatırım mallarına bağımlıdır. Gayrinakdi krediler, dışardan temin edilen bu kalemlerin temini için oldukça sık kullanılan bir finansman yöntemidir. Bu nedenle gayrinakdi kredilerin, imalat sanayi üzerinde etkili olabileceği düşünülmektedir. Çalışmada, 2008-2019 yılları arasında Türkiye’de bankacılık sistemi tarafından kullandırılan gayrinakdi kredilerin imalat sanayisi kapasite kullanım oranları üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönemli etkileri incelenmiştir. Uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespiti için Johansen eşbütünleşme modeli kullanılmıştır. Bunun yanında etkileşimin yönü ve derecesinin incelenmesi ve bu sayede çalışmaya derinlik kazandırılması için vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılan bir diğer yöntemdir. Bulunan sonuçlara göre gayrinakdi kredi büyüklüğü ve kapasite kullanım oranları eşbütünleşiktir. Fakat seriler arasındaki etkileşim yalnızca uzun dönemde gerçekleşmektedir. Yapılan bu çalışma ile imalat sanayisi kapasite kullanım oranlarının öncü göstergesi olarak bankacılık sektöründe kullandırılan gayrinakdi kredilerin incelenebileceği gösterilmiştir. Başka bir deyişle gayrinakdi kredilerde meydana gelen değişimler, imalat sanayi kapasite kullanım oranlarında bir etkiye sebep olabileceği şeklinde yorumlanabilir.

References

  • Aghion, P., Angeletos, G. M., Banerjee, A., Manova, K. (2010). Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment. Journal of MonetaryEconomics, 57, 246–265.
  • Akpansung, A. O., Babalola, S. J. (2011). Banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical investigation. Journal of Applied Statistics, 2,51–62.
  • Asteriou, D., Spanos, K. (2019). The relationship between financial development and economic growth during the recent crisis: Evidence from the EU. Finance Research Letters, 28, 238–245.
  • Benczúr, P., Karagiannis, S, Kvedaras, V. (2019) “Finance and economic growth: Financing structure and non-linear impact” Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.08.001.
  • Bezemer, D., Samarina, A., & Zhang, L. (2020). Does mortgage lending impact business credit? Evidence from a new disaggregated bank credit data set. Journal of Banking & Finance, 105760.
  • Buffie, E. F. (1984). Financial repression, the new structuralists, and stabilization policy in semi-industrialized economies. Journal of Development Economics, 14, 305–322.
  • Cappiello, L., Kadareja, A., Kok, C., and Protopapa, M. (2010). Do bank loans and credit standards have an effect on output? A panel approach for the euro area. ECB Working Paper No. 1150. (Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1535995).
  • Crystal, J., Dages, B., Goldberg, L. (2002). Has Foreign Bank Entry Led to Sounder Banks in Latin America? Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 8, 1–6.
  • Çelik, İ. (2012). Vadeli İşlem Piyasasında Fiyat Keşfi İzmir Vadeli İşlem Ve Opsiyon Borsasında Ampirik Bir Uygulama. Türkiye Bankalar Birliği, 2012 basımı
  • Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Diniz, M. A., Pereira, C. A. D. B., Stern, J. M. (2020). Cointegration and unit root tests: A fully Bayesian approach. arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.04499, pp, 1-19
  • Goldsmith, R. W. (1969) Financial structure and development Yale University Press, First Edition, New Haven (1969)
  • Gurley, J. G. – Shaw, E. S. (1955) Financial aspects of economic development The American Economic Review, 45 (1955), pp. 515-538
  • Güven, S (2002) Türkiye’de banka kredileri ve büyüme ilişkisi İktisat İşletme ve Finans, Cilt: 17, Sayı: 197, 88-100
  • Hu, S., Gong, D. (2019) Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending. Finance Research Letters, 29, 373–378.
  • Hye, A. Q. M., & Islam, F. (2013). Does financial development hamper economic growth: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14, 558–582.
  • Iwanicz-Drozdowska, J. M., Bongini, P., Smaga P, Witkowski, B. (2019) "The role of banks in CESEE countries: exploring non-standard determinants of economic growth," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 349-382,
  • Johansen, S. (1988) Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 2-3, pp, 231-254.
  • La Porta, R., Lopez-De-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. (2002) “Government Ownership of Banks” The Journal of Finance, 57: 265-301. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00422
  • Martinez-Peria, M.S., Powell, A., and Vladkova Hollar, I. (2002). Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Lending to Latin America, 1985–2000. Working Paper. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2588187
  • Neusser, K. (2016). Time series econometrics. Springer. 1. Edition
  • Nguyen, C. P., Le, T. H., Su, T. D. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample. Research in International Business and Finance, 51, 101118.
  • Önder, Z., Özyıldırım, S. (2013). Role of bank credit on local growth: Do politics and crisis matter? Journal of Financial Stability, 9, 13–25.
  • Sarıkovanlık, V., Koy, A., Akkaya, M., Yıldırım, H. H., & Kantar, L. (2019). Finans Biliminde Ekonometri Uygulamaları. Seçkin Yayıncılık, Ankara.
  • Schumpeter, J. E. (1911) The theory of economic development: An inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1911), Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1911), p. 1934
  • Sevüktekin, M., & Çınar, M. (2017). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi EViews Uygulamalı, Dora Yayıncılık, 5. Baskı, Bursa.
  • Shahbaz, M., Rehman, I. U., & Muzaffar, A. T. (2015). Re-visiting financial development and economic growth Nexus: The role of capitalization in Bangladesh. South African Journal of Economics, 83, 452–471.
  • Vurur, N. S. – Özen E. (2013) Türkiye’de Mevduat Banka Kredisi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin İncelenmesi Uşak Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 2013, 6/3 2013, 6/3, 117-131

The Relationship Between Non-Cash Loans and The Manufacturing Industry: An Empirical Study

Year 2021, Volume: 9 Issue: 4, 885 - 897, 31.08.2021
https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.819686

Abstract

Turkey's manufacturing industry is largely dependent on imported raw materials, intermediate goods, and investment goods. Non-cash loans are a very common financing method for the supply of these items. For this reason, it is thought that non-cash loans may have an impact on the manufacturing industry. The study examined the short-and long-term effects of non-cash loans provided by the banking system in Turkey between 2008 and 2019 on the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry. The Johansen cointegration model is used to determine the long-term relationship. In addition, vector error correction model is another method used to examine the direction and degree of interaction and thus gain depth to the study. According to the results, non-cash loan size and capacity utilization rates are cointegrated. However, the interaction between the series only takes place in the long run. This study has shown that non-cash loans in the banking sector can be regarded as a leading indicator of capacity utilization rates in the manufacturing industry. In other words, changes in non-cash loans may influence manufacturing capacity utilization rates.

References

  • Aghion, P., Angeletos, G. M., Banerjee, A., Manova, K. (2010). Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment. Journal of MonetaryEconomics, 57, 246–265.
  • Akpansung, A. O., Babalola, S. J. (2011). Banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical investigation. Journal of Applied Statistics, 2,51–62.
  • Asteriou, D., Spanos, K. (2019). The relationship between financial development and economic growth during the recent crisis: Evidence from the EU. Finance Research Letters, 28, 238–245.
  • Benczúr, P., Karagiannis, S, Kvedaras, V. (2019) “Finance and economic growth: Financing structure and non-linear impact” Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.08.001.
  • Bezemer, D., Samarina, A., & Zhang, L. (2020). Does mortgage lending impact business credit? Evidence from a new disaggregated bank credit data set. Journal of Banking & Finance, 105760.
  • Buffie, E. F. (1984). Financial repression, the new structuralists, and stabilization policy in semi-industrialized economies. Journal of Development Economics, 14, 305–322.
  • Cappiello, L., Kadareja, A., Kok, C., and Protopapa, M. (2010). Do bank loans and credit standards have an effect on output? A panel approach for the euro area. ECB Working Paper No. 1150. (Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1535995).
  • Crystal, J., Dages, B., Goldberg, L. (2002). Has Foreign Bank Entry Led to Sounder Banks in Latin America? Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 8, 1–6.
  • Çelik, İ. (2012). Vadeli İşlem Piyasasında Fiyat Keşfi İzmir Vadeli İşlem Ve Opsiyon Borsasında Ampirik Bir Uygulama. Türkiye Bankalar Birliği, 2012 basımı
  • Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Diniz, M. A., Pereira, C. A. D. B., Stern, J. M. (2020). Cointegration and unit root tests: A fully Bayesian approach. arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.04499, pp, 1-19
  • Goldsmith, R. W. (1969) Financial structure and development Yale University Press, First Edition, New Haven (1969)
  • Gurley, J. G. – Shaw, E. S. (1955) Financial aspects of economic development The American Economic Review, 45 (1955), pp. 515-538
  • Güven, S (2002) Türkiye’de banka kredileri ve büyüme ilişkisi İktisat İşletme ve Finans, Cilt: 17, Sayı: 197, 88-100
  • Hu, S., Gong, D. (2019) Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending. Finance Research Letters, 29, 373–378.
  • Hye, A. Q. M., & Islam, F. (2013). Does financial development hamper economic growth: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14, 558–582.
  • Iwanicz-Drozdowska, J. M., Bongini, P., Smaga P, Witkowski, B. (2019) "The role of banks in CESEE countries: exploring non-standard determinants of economic growth," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 349-382,
  • Johansen, S. (1988) Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 2-3, pp, 231-254.
  • La Porta, R., Lopez-De-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. (2002) “Government Ownership of Banks” The Journal of Finance, 57: 265-301. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00422
  • Martinez-Peria, M.S., Powell, A., and Vladkova Hollar, I. (2002). Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Lending to Latin America, 1985–2000. Working Paper. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2588187
  • Neusser, K. (2016). Time series econometrics. Springer. 1. Edition
  • Nguyen, C. P., Le, T. H., Su, T. D. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample. Research in International Business and Finance, 51, 101118.
  • Önder, Z., Özyıldırım, S. (2013). Role of bank credit on local growth: Do politics and crisis matter? Journal of Financial Stability, 9, 13–25.
  • Sarıkovanlık, V., Koy, A., Akkaya, M., Yıldırım, H. H., & Kantar, L. (2019). Finans Biliminde Ekonometri Uygulamaları. Seçkin Yayıncılık, Ankara.
  • Schumpeter, J. E. (1911) The theory of economic development: An inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1911), Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1911), p. 1934
  • Sevüktekin, M., & Çınar, M. (2017). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi EViews Uygulamalı, Dora Yayıncılık, 5. Baskı, Bursa.
  • Shahbaz, M., Rehman, I. U., & Muzaffar, A. T. (2015). Re-visiting financial development and economic growth Nexus: The role of capitalization in Bangladesh. South African Journal of Economics, 83, 452–471.
  • Vurur, N. S. – Özen E. (2013) Türkiye’de Mevduat Banka Kredisi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin İncelenmesi Uşak Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 2013, 6/3 2013, 6/3, 117-131
There are 29 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Berkan Ataş 0000-0003-3049-3195

Osman Emre Arlı 0000-0002-7756-9372

Publication Date August 31, 2021
Acceptance Date April 1, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 9 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Ataş, B., & Arlı, O. E. (2021). Gayrinakdi Krediler ile İmalat Sanayi Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Uygulama. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(4), 885-897. https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.819686

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