Pollution Haven Hypothesis: The Example of Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 1013 - 1056

Sumera Altay , Mehmet Barış Aslan

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.1614611

Abstract

:This study analyzes the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Turkey using annual data from the 1980-2021 period. The stationarity of the variables was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, while the Johansen cointegration test revealed the existence of long-term relationships. The short- and long-term dynamics were examined through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and the direction of interactions among the variables was determined using the causality test. The findings indicate that in the short term, energy consumption is the only factor influencing CO₂ emissions. However, in the long term, FDI, gross domestic product (GDP), and energy consumption have significant effects on CO₂ emissions. These results highlight the environmental costs of FDI in Turkey, supporting the pollution haven hypothesis and offering insights for sustainable development policies. In conclusion, this study on the environmental impacts of foreign direct investments in Turkey reveals that environmentally friendly policies must be implemented in order for the country to achieve its sustainable development goals. Establishing a strong balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability will not only reduce the environmental impacts of foreign direct investments, but will also contribute to Turkey fulfilling its global environmental responsibilities.

Keywords

Foreign Direct Investment, Pollution Haven Hypothesis, Economic Growth, CO₂ Emission

Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu araştırma, 1980-2021 dönemi yıllık verilerini kullanarak Türkiye’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımların (DYY) karbondioksit emisyonu (CO₂) üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Değişkenlerin durağanlıkları genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF) ve Phillips-Perron (PP) testleri ile değerlendirilmiş, Johansen eşbütünleşme testi uzun dönemli ilişkilerin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) ile kısa ve uzun dönem dinamikleri incelenmiş, nedensellik testi değişkenler arasındaki etkileşimlerin yönünü belirlemiştir. Sonuçlar, kısa dönemde enerji tüketiminin CO₂ emisyonlarını etkileyen tek faktör olduğunu, uzun dönemde ise DYY, gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla (GSYİH) ve enerji tüketiminin CO₂ emisyonları üzerinde anlamlı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, Türkiye’de DYY’nin çevresel maliyetlerini vurgulamakta ve kirlilik sığınağı hipotezini destekleyerek sürdürülebilir kalkınma politikalarına yönelik çıkarımlar sunmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımların çevresel etkileri üzerine yapılan bu çalışma, ülkenin sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerine ulaşabilmesi için çevre dostu politikaların hayata geçirilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme ile çevresel sürdürülebilirlik arasında güçlü bir denge kurulması, yalnızca doğrudan yabancı yatırımların çevreye olan etkilerini azaltmakla kalmayacak, aynı zamanda Türkiye’nin küresel çevre sorumluluklarını yerine getirmesine de katkı sağlayacaktır

Keywords

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi, Ekonomik Büyüme, CO₂ Emisyonu.

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