Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey

Şifa Özkan; Seyit Ali Miçooğulları

doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1699986

Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of climate change on agricultural employment in Turkey by employing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model within the framework of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF). The study, using quarterly data from 2005Q1 to 2024Q4, considers temperature and precipitation shocks as environmental risk variables and examines their short- and long-run effects on agricultural employment as a key livelihood outcome. Empirical results indicate that positive temperature shocks significantly increase employment in the long run, while negative precipitation shocks reduce it. These effects have been found to be asymmetric both in terms of direction and magnitude. The findings also emphasize the mediating role of trade intensity and mechanization, suggesting that technological transformation in agriculture may replace labor in the long run. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing the first SLFbased time series evidence of the asymmetric climate-employment link in Turkey. Unlike previous studies focused on productivity or output, this research directly addresses the labor dimension of climate change. Policy implications highlight the need for climate-resilient labor planning, regionally adaptable employment support mechanisms, and sustainable rural development strategies. To enhance the resilience of the rural workforce under increasing climatic fluctuations, the study suggests the implementation of specialized climate insurance, seasonal worker protection, and balanced mechanization policies.

Keywords

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Farm Enterprises, Sustainable Agricultural Development, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Economics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Şifa Özkan ^*
0009-0007-0392-6473
Türkiye

Seyit Ali Miçooğulları
0000-0001-9266-1559
Türkiye

Publication Date

January 20, 2026

Submission Date

May 15, 2025

Acceptance Date

September 7, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 32 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1699986

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA48BP58TF

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Özkan, Ş., & Miçooğulları, S. A. (2026). Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 32(1), 145-157. https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1699986

AMA

1.Özkan Ş, Miçooğulları SA. Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey. J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili. 2026;32(1):145-157. doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1699986

Chicago

Özkan, Şifa, and Seyit Ali Miçooğulları. 2026. “Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 32 (1): 145-57. https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1699986.

EndNote

Özkan Ş, Miçooğulları SA (January 1, 2026) Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 32 1 145–157.

IEEE

[1]Ş. Özkan and S. A. Miçooğulları, “Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey”, J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 145–157, Jan. 2026, doi: 10.15832/ankutbd.1699986.

ISNAD

Özkan, Şifa - Miçooğulları, Seyit Ali. “Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 32/1 (January 1, 2026): 145-157. https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1699986.

JAMA

1.Özkan Ş, Miçooğulları SA. Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey. J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili. 2026;32:145–157.

MLA

Özkan, Şifa, and Seyit Ali Miçooğulları. “Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 32, no. 1, Jan. 2026, pp. 145-57, doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1699986.

Vancouver

1.Şifa Özkan, Seyit Ali Miçooğulları. Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey. J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili. 2026 Jan. 1;32(1):145-57. doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1699986

Cited By

Coping or adapting? The counterintuitive role of financial access in agricultural resilience under climate stress: evidence from Türkiye

Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2026.1787061