Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data with CA-Markov Modeling

Selin Yıldız Görentaş; Ahmet Gül; Mehmet Fatih Döker

doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1789242

Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data with CA-Markov Modeling

Abstract

Agricultural land is increasingly affected by rapid and uncontrolled urban expansion processes. The intensification of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, driving by rising population densities in urban areas, poses significant threats to environmental sustainability and agricultural land resources. Focusing on the city of Adapazari, this study aims to simulate future urban growth and assess its potential impact on agricultural land loss by integrating Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (CA-Markov) modeling with Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) data. Using satellite images from 1990, 2005, and 2020, LULC changes were analysed and projected for the years 2035 and 2050. The model achieved a high level of accuracy with an overall agreement of 93% and a strong Kappa coefficient. Simulation results indicate that by 2050, settlement areas could increase by about 82%, primarily at the expense of agricultural land. LPIS-based analysis shows that 3,173 ha of agricultural land, including arable lands, grassland, and hazelnut, are at risk of conversion to urban use. These findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable urban planning policies that protect fertile agricultural land while accommodating urban growth. This research provides valuable insights for decision-makers and urban planners concerned with balancing development and environmental preservation in rapidly urbanizing regions.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Land Use and Environmental Planning, Urban Analysis and Development, Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Selin Yıldız Görentaş ^*
0000-0001-5497-0967
Türkiye

Ahmet Gül
0000-0003-2975-1388
Türkiye

Mehmet Fatih Döker
0000-0002-0414-0428
Türkiye

Publication Date

March 24, 2026

Submission Date

September 22, 2025

Acceptance Date

December 30, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 32 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1789242

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA65FG79EX

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Yıldız Görentaş, S., Gül, A., & Döker, M. F. (2026). Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data with CA-Markov Modeling. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 32(2), 455-473. https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1789242

AMA

1.Yıldız Görentaş S, Gül A, Döker MF. Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data with CA-Markov Modeling. J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili. 2026;32(2):455-473. doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1789242

Chicago

Yıldız Görentaş, Selin, Ahmet Gül, and Mehmet Fatih Döker. 2026. “Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data With CA-Markov Modeling”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 32 (2): 455-73. https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1789242.

EndNote

Yıldız Görentaş S, Gül A, Döker MF (March 1, 2026) Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data with CA-Markov Modeling. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 32 2 455–473.

IEEE

[1]S. Yıldız Görentaş, A. Gül, and M. F. Döker, “Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data with CA-Markov Modeling”, J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 455–473, Mar. 2026, doi: 10.15832/ankutbd.1789242.

ISNAD

Yıldız Görentaş, Selin - Gül, Ahmet - Döker, Mehmet Fatih. “Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data With CA-Markov Modeling”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 32/2 (March 1, 2026): 455-473. https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1789242.

JAMA

1.Yıldız Görentaş S, Gül A, Döker MF. Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data with CA-Markov Modeling. J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili. 2026;32:455–473.

MLA

Yıldız Görentaş, Selin, et al. “Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data With CA-Markov Modeling”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 32, no. 2, Mar. 2026, pp. 455-73, doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1789242.

Vancouver

1.Selin Yıldız Görentaş, Ahmet Gül, Mehmet Fatih Döker. Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data with CA-Markov Modeling. J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili. 2026 Mar. 1;32(2):455-73. doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1789242