Determining the Effects of Climate Change and Market Prices on Farm’s Structure by Using an Agent Based Model

Year 2021, Volume: 27 Issue: 2, 204 - 210, 04.06.2021

Hooman Mansoori , Mohammad Ghorbani Mohammad Reza Kohansal

https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.495246

https://izlik.org/JA47CN35HH

Abstract

In this study, an agent-based model was used to simulate structure change of farms during 20 years period of climate and market price changes in the rural area of Eslamshahr City in Iran. Decision rules that used in the model are based on the information that collected by direct interviews with farmers. So the model includes rules that define the relationship between agents and their environment. Results clearly showed that farmers' behavior patterns and the cover of agricultural land in the region affected by environmental and market factors changes. Comparison of the results of model implementation for various scenarios has shown that the highest yield and income loss has occurred in scenarios where there was a 10% reduction in access to water. Also, there is a less decrease in the crops land size in groups which includes small and medium farmers.

Keywords

Agent Based , climate , Farm Structure , land use , iran

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