Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi

Seda Çalışır

doi:10.53376/ap.2024.14

TR EN

Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 2011, 2015 ve 2018 genel seçimlerinden sonra yapılan seçim sonrası anketlerinden yararlanarak seçmenlerin duygusal kutuplaşma düzeylerini ve bu kutuplaşmanın oy kullanma yolu ile siyasi katılıma etkilerini incelemektedir. İki partili sistemlerde yaygın olarak gözlemlenen ve araştırılan duygusal kutuplaşma, son yıllarda çok partili sistemlerde de görülmeye başlanmıştır. Duygusal kutuplaşma, seçmenlerin yakın hissettiği siyasi kurum ve kişilerin yanında, uzak hissettiği hatta hiç hoşlanmadığı karşı grupların varlığında ortaya çıkan, birey seviyesinde bir kutuplaşmadır. Partizan duygular taşıyan seçmenler bir partiye, lidere veya parti destekçilerine yakınlık hissederken, karşıt gruplara uzaklık ve hoşnutsuzluk duyabilmektedir. Hem çok ülkeli çalışmalarda raporlanan yüksek duygusal kutuplaşma skorları hem de seçimlere katılımın yüksek oranları, Türkiye’de iki kavramın etkileşimine dair çeşitli soruları barındırmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, Türkiye’de duygusal kutuplaşma seviyesi ve oy kullanma arasında, pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Duygusal kutuplaşan seçmenler, politik etkililik konusunda kime oy verdiğini daha çok önemsemekte ve bu seçmenler için seçim günü oy kullanmak, demokrasiye katılmanın etkili bir yolu olarak kendini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Duygusal Kutuplaşma, Siyasi Katılım, Oy Verme, Partizanlık, Türkiye

The Relationship Between Affective Polarization and Voter Turnout in Turkey

Abstract

This study uses post-election surveys conducted after the 2011, 2015 and 2018 general elections in Turkey to examine the level of affective polarisation among voters and its effects on voter turnout. Affective polarisation, which has been experienced in multi-party systems in recent years, is an individual-level polarisation that emerges in the presence of political institutions and individuals that voters feel close to, as well as opposing groups that they feel distant from or even dislike. When partisan salience is pronounced, voters are likely to experience a strong sense of affinity toward a specific party, its leader, or similarly aligned individuals, while concurrently feeling a sense of detachment and aversion toward opposing groups. In a multi-party system with high voter turnout rates like Turkey, high levels of affective polarisation raise several questions in line with the findings reported in cross-country studies. Our analyses yield that higher affective polarization correlates positively and significantly with increased voter participation in Turkey. Our findings suggest that voters driven by affective polarization perceive voting as a crucial means of political engagement and effectiveness.

Keywords

Affective Polarization, Political Participation, Turnout, Partisanship, Turkey

References

Abramowitz, Alan I (2010), The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization and American Democracy (New Haven: Yale University Press).
Abramowitz, Alan I ve Steven Webster (2016), “The Rise of Negative Partisanship and the Nationalization of U.S. Elections in the 21st Century”, Electoral Studies, 41: 12-22.
Ahn, Chloe ve Diana C Mutz (2023), “The Effects of Polarized Evaluations on Political Participation: Does Hating the Other Side Motivate Voters?”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 87 (2): 243–266.
Akyüz, İsmail (2021), “Sosyo Politik Etkiler Bağlamda Ortaya Çıkan İmam Hatip Kuşakları Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”, Marifetname, 8 (2): 563-590.
Arceneaux, Kevin ve David W. Nickerson (2009), “Who Is Mobilized To Vote? A Re-Analysis of 11 Field Experiments”, American Journal of Political Science, 53 (1): 1–16.
Arzheimer, Kai ve Elisabeth Carter (2009), “Christian Religiosity and Voting For West European Radical Right Parties”, West European Politics, 32 (5): 985-1011.
Aytaç, S.Erdem, Ali Çarkoğlu ve Kerem Yıldırım (2017), “Taking Sides: Determinants of Support for a Presidential System in Turkey”, South European Society and Politics, 22 (1): 1-20.
Aytaç, S.Erdem ve Ali Çarkoğlu (2019), “Ethnicity and Religiosity-Based Prejudice in Turkey: Evidence from a Survey Experiment”, International Political Science Review, 40 (1): 58–72.
Bankert, Alexa (2021), “Negative and Positive Partisanship in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections”, Political Behaviour, 43 (4): 1467–1485.
Bantel, Ivo (2023), “Camps, Not Just Parties. The Dynamic Foundations of Affective Polarization in Multi-Party Systems”, Electoral Studies, 83: 102614.

Bettarelli, Luca, Andres Reiljan ve Emilie van Haute (2022), “A Regional Perspective to the Study of Affective Polarization”, European Journal of Political Research, 62 (2): 645-659.
Bischof, Daniel ve Markus Wagner (2019), “Do Voters Polarize When Radical Parties Enter Parliament”, American Journal of Political Science, 63 (4): 888–904.
Bolsen, Toby, James N. Druckman ve Fay Lomax Cook (2014), “The Influence of Partisan Motivated Reasoning on Public Opinion”, Political Behavior, 36 (2): 235-262.
Boxell, Levi, Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro (2024). “Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 106 (2): 557-565.
Broockman, David E., Joshua L. Kalla ve Sean J. Westwood (2023), “Does Affective Polarization Undermine Democratic Norms or Accountability? Maybe Not”, American Journal of Political Science, 67 (3): 808-828.
Campbell, Angus, Gerald Gurin ve Warren E. Miller (1954), The Voter Decides (New York: Row, Peterson, and Company).
Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller ve Donald E. Stokes (1960), The American Voter (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press).
Campbell, James E (2016), Polarized: Making Sense of a Divided America (New Jersey: Princeton University Press).
CSES Integrated Module Dataset Release, 8 December 2020 Version. Comparative Study of Electoral Systems https://doi.org/10.7804/cses.imd.2019-10-17 (05.01.2024).
CSES Module 5 Fourth Advance Release, 1 March 2022 Version. Comparative Study of Electoral Systems https://10.7804/cses.module5.2022-03-01 (05.01.2024).
Çarkoğlu, Ali ve Ersin Kalaycıoğlu (2007), Turkish Democracy Today: Elections, Protest and Stability in an Islamic Society (London: I.B. Tauris).
Çarkoğlu, Ali ve Ersin Kalaycıoğlu (2009), Türkiye’de Dindarlık: Uluslararası Bir Karşılaştırma (Istanbul: Sabancı University).
Çarkoğlu, Ali (2012), “Economic Evaluations vs. Ideology: Diagnosing the Sources of Electoral Change in Turkey, 2002–2011”, Electoral Studies, 31: 513-521.
Downs, Anthony (1957), An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper).
Druckman, James N ve Matthew S. Levendusky (2019), “What Do We Measure When We Measure Affective Polarization?”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 83 (1): 114–122.
Edlin, Aaron, Andrew Gelman ve Noah Kaplan (2007), “Voting as a Rational Choice”, Rationality and Society, 19 (3): 293-314.
Enyedi, Zsolt (2008), “The Social and Attitudinal Basis of Political Parties: Cleavage Politics Revisited”, European Review, 16, 287-304.
Esen, Berk ve Şebnem Gümüşçü (2016), “Rising Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey”, Third World Quarterly, 37 (9): 1581–1606.
Fiorina, Morris P (1981), Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press).
Fowler, James H (2006), “Habitual Voting and Behavioral Turnout”, The Journal of Politics, 68 (2): 335–344.
Gidron, Noam ve Peter A. Hall (2020), “Populism as a Problem of Social Integration”, Comparative Political Studies, 53 (7): 1027–1059.
Gidron, Noam, James Adams ve Will Horne (2020), American Affective Polarization in Comparative Perspective (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Green, Donald, Bradley Palmquist ve Eric Schickler (2002), Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters (New Haven: Yale University Press).
Greene, Steven 2004, “Social Identity Theory and Party Identification”, Social Sciences Quarterly, 85 (1):136-153.
Haggard, Stephan ve Robert Kaufman (2021), Backsliding: Democratic Regress in the Contemporary World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Harteveld, Eelco ve Markus Wagner (2023), “Does Affective Polarisation Increase Turnout? Evidence from Germany, the Netherlands and Spain”, West European Politics, 46 (4), 732-759.
Harteveld, Eelco, Lars Erik Berntzen, Andrej Kokkonen, Haylee Kelsall, Jonas Linde ve Stefan Dahlberg (2022a), “The (Alleged) Consequences of Affective Polarization: a Survey Experiment in 9 Countries”, https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/64uwd (05.01.2024).
Harteveld, Eelco, Philipp Mendoza ve Matthijs Rooduijn (2022b), “Affective Polarization and the Populist Radical Right: Creating the Hating?”, Government and Opposition, 57: 703–727.
Hernández, Eenrique, Eva Anduiza ve Guillem Rico (2021), “Affective Polarization and the Salience of Elections”, Electoral Studies, 69.
Hobolt, Sara B., Thomas J. Leeper ve James Tilley (2021), “Divided by the Vote: Affective Polarization in the Wake of The Brexit Referendum”, British Journal of Political Science, 51 (4): 1476– 1493.
Hudde, Ansgar, Will Horne, James Adams ve Noam Gidron (2024), “How Warm are Partisan Political Interactions? A Frequency-based Measure of Affective Fractionalization”, PLoS ONE 19 (5): e0294401.
Huddy, Leonie ve Omer Yair (2021), “Reducing Affective Polarization: Warm Group Relations or Policy Compromise?”, Political Psychology, 42 (2): 291-309.
Huddy, Leonie, Caitlin Davies ve Joseph Sandor (2020), “Measuring the Direction and Strength of Partisan Identity”, Oscarsson, Henrik ve Sören Holmberg (Der.), Research Handbook on Political Partisanship (Northampton: Edward Elgar Publishing): 103-122.
Huddy, Leonie ve Alexa Bankert (2017), “Political Partisanship as Social Identity”, Research Encyclopedia of Politics (Oxford: Oxford University Press).
Huddy, Leonie, Lilliana Mason ve Lene Aarøe (2015), “Expressive Partisanship: Campaign Involvement, Political Emotion, and Partisan Identity”, American Political Science Review, 109 (1): 1–17.
Hooghe, Marc ve Anna Kern (2017), “Social Capital and the Development of Political Support in Europe”, van Ham, Carolien, Jacques Thomassen, Kees Aarts ve Rudy B Andeweg (Der.), Myth and Reality of the Legitimacy Crisis: Explaining Trends and Cross-National Differences in Established Democracies (Oxford: Oxford University Press): 59–75.
Iyengar, Shanto. Yphtach Lelkes, Matthew Levendusky, Neil Malhotra ve Sean J. Westwood (2019), “The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States”, Annual Review of Political Science, 22: 129–146.
Iyengar, Shanto ve Masha Krupenkin (2018), “The Strengthening of Partisan Affect”, Political Psychology, 39: 201-218.
Iyengar, Shanto, Gaurav Sood ve Yphtach Lelkes (2012), “Affect, Not Ideology: A Social Identity Perspective on Polarization”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 76 (3): 405–431.
Johnston, Richard (2006), “Party Identification: Unmoved Mover or Sum of Preferences?”, Annual Review of Political Science, 9: 329–351.
Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin (2012), “Kulturkampf in Turkey: the Constitutional Referendum of 12 September 2010”, South European Politics and Societies, 17 (1): 1-22.
Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin (2013), “Turkish Party System: Leaders, Vote and Institutionalization”, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 13 (4): 483–502.
Kawecki, Daniel (2022), “End of Consensus? Ideology, Partisan Identity, and Affective Polarization in Finland 2003–2019”, Scandinavian Political Studies, 45 (4): 478-503.
Kingzette, Jon, James N Druckman, Samara Klar, Yanna Krupnikov, Matthew Levendusky ve John Barry Ryan (2021), “How Affective Polarization Undermines Support for Democratic Norms”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 85 (2): 663–77.
LeBas, Adrienne (2018), “Can Polarization Be Positive? Conflict and Institutional Development In Africa”, American Behavioral Scientist, 62 (1), 59-74.
Lelkes, Yphtach (2016), “Mass Polarization: Manifestations and Measurements”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 80 (S1): 392–410.
Levendusky, Matthew S. ve Neil Malhotra (2016), “Does Media Coverage of Partisan Polarization Affect Political Attitudes?”, Political Communication, 33 (2): 283–301.
Levendusky, Matthew S (2013), “Why Do Partisan Media Polarize Viewers?”, American Journal of Political Science, 57 (3): 611–623.
Lupu, Noam (2015), “Party Polarization and Mass Partisanship: a Comparative Perspective”, Political Behaviour, 37 (2): 331-356.
Mason, Lilliana (2015), “I Disrespectfully Agree: The Differential Effects of Partisan Sorting on Social and Issue Polarization”, American Journal of Political Science, 59 (1): 128–145.
Mason, Lilliana (2018), Uncivil Agreement: How Politics Became Our Identity (Chicago: University Chicago Press).
McLaughlin, Bryan, Derrick Holland, Bailey A. Thompson ve Abigail Koenig (2020), “Emotions And Affective Polarization: How Enthusiasm and Anxiety About Presidential Candidates Affect Interparty Attitudes”, American Politics Research, 48 (2): 308–316.
Mudde, Cas (2007), Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Özbudun, Ergun (2013), Party Politics and Social Cleavages in Turkey (Boulder: Lynne Rienner).
Özbudun, Ergun (1976), Social Change and Political Participation in Turkey (New Jersey: Princeton University Press).
Pateman, Carole (1970), Participation and Democratic Theory (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Phillips, Joseph B (2024), “Affective Polarization and Habits Of Political Participation”, Electoral Studies, 87: 102733.
Plutzer, Eric (2002), “Becoming a Habitual Voter: Inertia, Resources, and Growth In Young Adulthood”, American Political Science Review, 96 (1): 41–56.
Prior, Markus (2010), “You’ve Either Got It or You Don’t? The Stability of Political İnterest Over The Life Cycle”, The Journal of Politics, 72 (3): 747–766.
Przeworski, Adam (2019), Crises of Democracy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Putnam, Robert D (2001), “Social Capital: Measurement and Consequences”, Canadian Journal of Policy Research, 2: 41-51.
Reiljan, Andres (2020), “Fear and Loathing Across Party Lines (Also) in Europe: Affective Polarisation in European Party Systems”, European Journal of Political Research, 59 (2): 376–396.
Reiljan, Andres ve Alexander Ryan (2021), “Ideological Tripolarization, Partisan Tribalism and Institutional Trust: The Foundations of Affective Polarization in the Swedish Multiparty System”, Scandinavian Political Studies, 44 (2): 195-219.
Reiljan, Andres, Diego Garzia, Frederico Ferreira Da Silva ve Alexander H. Trechsel (2023), “Patterns of Affective Polarization toward Parties and Leaders across the Democratic World”, American Political Science Review, 118 (2): 654-760.
Renström, Emma A., Hanna Bäck, ve Royce Carroll (2021), “Intergroup Threat and Affective Polarization in a Multiparty System”, Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 9: 553-576.
Riker, William H. ve Peter C. Ordeshook (1968), “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting”, The American Political Science Review, 62 (1): 25-42.
Sartori, Giovanni (1976), Parties and Party Systems (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Sayarı, Sabri (2002), “The Changing Party System”, Sayarı, Sabri ve Yılmaz Esmer (Der.), Politics, Parties, and Elections in Turkey (Boulder: Lynne Rienner): 9–32.
Sayarı, Sabri (2012), “Political Parties”, Heper, Metin ve Sabri Sayarı (Der.), The Routledge Handbook of Modern Turkey (Londra: Routledge): 182-193.
Somer, Murat, Jennifer L. McCoy ve Russell E. Luke (2021), “Pernicious Polarization, Autocratization and Opposition Strategies”, Democratization, 5: 929-948.
T24 (2015), https://t24.com.tr/haber/trtnin-secim-propagandasi-erdoganla-akpye-100-muhalefete-uc-saat,298872 (05.01.2024).
Tajfel, Henri. (1970), “Experiments In Intergroup Discrimination”, Scientific American, 223: 96-103.
Tajfel, Henri ve JohnTurner (1979), “An Integrative Theory of Intergroup Conflict”, Hatch, Mary Jo ve Majken Schultz (Der.), Organizational Identity (Oxford: Oxford University Press): 56–65.
van Deth, Jan W (2014), “A Conceptual Map of Political Participation”, Acta Politica, 7 (1): 349-367.
V-Dem Institute (2022), Autocratization Changing Nature? Democracy Report 2022 (Gothenburg: University of Gothenburg).
Valentino, Nicholas A., Ted Brader, Eric W. Groenendyk, Krysha Gregorowicz ve Vincent L. Hutchings (2011), “Election Night’s Alright for Fighting: The Role of Emotions in Political Participation”, The Journal of Politics, 73 (1): 156–170.
Verba, Sidney, Kay Schlozman ve Henry E. Brady (1995), Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics (Cambridge: Harvard University Press).
Voelkel, Jean G., James Chu, Michael N. Stagnaro, Joseph S Mernyk, Chrystal Redekopp, Sophia L Pink, James N Druckman, David G Rand ve Robb Willer (2023), “Interventions Reducing Affective Polarization Do Not Necessarily Improve Anti-Democratic Attitudes”, Nature Human Behaviour, 7: 55–64.
Wagner, Markus. (2021), “Affective Polarization in Multiparty Systems”, Electoral Studies, 69: 102-199.
Ward, Dalston G. ve Margit Tavits (2019), “How Partisan Affect Shapes Citizens’ Perception of the Political World”, Electoral Studies, 60: 102045.
Wattenberg, Martin P (2007), Is Voting for Young People? (Londra: Pearson Longman).
Weiss, Julia (2020), “What Is Youth Political Participation? Literature Review on Youth Political Participation and Political Attitudes”, Frontiers in Political Science, 2 (1).
Westwood, Sean J., Shanto Iyengar, Stefaan Walgrave, Rafael Leonisio, Luis Miller ve Oliver Strijbis (2018), “The Tie That Divides: Cross-National Evidence of The Primacy of Partyism”, European Journal of Political Science, 57 (2): 333–354.
Wisevoter (2024), https://wisevoter.com/country-rankings/voter-turnout-by-country/ (03.03.2024).
Wojcieszak, Magdalena (2011), “Deliberation and Attitude Polarization”, Journal of Communication, 61 (4): 596-617.
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (2006), Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (Ohio: Thomson/South-Western).

Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Constitutional and Political Theories

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Seda Çalışır
0000-0001-6067-585X
Türkiye

Publication Date

October 19, 2024

Submission Date

June 2, 2024

Acceptance Date

August 13, 2024

Published in Issue

Year 2024 Volume: 16 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.53376/ap.2024.14

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA74LL75TG

APA

Çalışır, S. (2024). Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi. Alternatif Politika, 16(3), 381-416. https://doi.org/10.53376/ap.2024.14

AMA

1.Çalışır S. Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi. Altern. Polit. 2024;16(3):381-416. doi:10.53376/ap.2024.14

Chicago

Çalışır, Seda. 2024. “Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma Ve Oy Verme İlişkisi”. Alternatif Politika 16 (3): 381-416. https://doi.org/10.53376/ap.2024.14.

EndNote

Çalışır S (October 1, 2024) Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi. Alternatif Politika 16 3 381–416.

IEEE

[1]S. Çalışır, “Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi”, Altern. Polit., vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 381–416, Oct. 2024, doi: 10.53376/ap.2024.14.

ISNAD

Çalışır, Seda. “Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma Ve Oy Verme İlişkisi”. Alternatif Politika 16/3 (October 1, 2024): 381-416. https://doi.org/10.53376/ap.2024.14.

JAMA

1.Çalışır S. Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi. Altern. Polit. 2024;16:381–416.

MLA

Çalışır, Seda. “Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma Ve Oy Verme İlişkisi”. Alternatif Politika, vol. 16, no. 3, Oct. 2024, pp. 381-16, doi:10.53376/ap.2024.14.

Vancouver

1.Seda Çalışır. Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi. Altern. Polit. 2024 Oct. 1;16(3):381-416. doi:10.53376/ap.2024.14

Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi

Abstract

Keywords

The Relationship Between Affective Polarization and Voter Turnout in Turkey

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite