The Relationship Between Affective Polarization and Voter Turnout in Turkey

Year 2024, , 381 - 416, 19.10.2024

Seda Çalışır

https://doi.org/10.53376/ap.2024.14

Abstract

This study uses post-election surveys conducted after the 2011, 2015 and 2018 general elections in Turkey to examine the level of affective polarisation among voters and its effects on voter turnout. Affective polarisation, which has been experienced in multi-party systems in recent years, is an individual-level polarisation that emerges in the presence of political institutions and individuals that voters feel close to, as well as opposing groups that they feel distant from or even dislike. When partisan salience is pronounced, voters are likely to experience a strong sense of affinity toward a specific party, its leader, or similarly aligned individuals, while concurrently feeling a sense of detachment and aversion toward opposing groups. In a multi-party system with high voter turnout rates like Turkey, high levels of affective polarisation raise several questions in line with the findings reported in cross-country studies. Our analyses yield that higher affective polarization correlates positively and significantly with increased voter participation in Turkey. Our findings suggest that voters driven by affective polarization perceive voting as a crucial means of political engagement and effectiveness.

Keywords

Affective Polarization, Political Participation, Turnout, Partisanship, Turkey

Türkiye’de Duygusal Kutuplaşma ve Oy Verme İlişkisi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 2011, 2015 ve 2018 genel seçimlerinden sonra yapılan seçim sonrası anketlerinden yararlanarak seçmenlerin duygusal kutuplaşma düzeylerini ve bu kutuplaşmanın oy kullanma yolu ile siyasi katılıma etkilerini incelemektedir. İki partili sistemlerde yaygın olarak gözlemlenen ve araştırılan duygusal kutuplaşma, son yıllarda çok partili sistemlerde de görülmeye başlanmıştır. Duygusal kutuplaşma, seçmenlerin yakın hissettiği siyasi kurum ve kişilerin yanında, uzak hissettiği hatta hiç hoşlanmadığı karşı grupların varlığında ortaya çıkan, birey seviyesinde bir kutuplaşmadır. Partizan duygular taşıyan seçmenler bir partiye, lidere veya parti destekçilerine yakınlık hissederken, karşıt gruplara uzaklık ve hoşnutsuzluk duyabilmektedir. Hem çok ülkeli çalışmalarda raporlanan yüksek duygusal kutuplaşma skorları hem de seçimlere katılımın yüksek oranları, Türkiye’de iki kavramın etkileşimine dair çeşitli soruları barındırmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, Türkiye’de duygusal kutuplaşma seviyesi ve oy kullanma arasında, pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Duygusal kutuplaşan seçmenler, politik etkililik konusunda kime oy verdiğini daha çok önemsemekte ve bu seçmenler için seçim günü oy kullanmak, demokrasiye katılmanın etkili bir yolu olarak kendini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Duygusal Kutuplaşma, Siyasi Katılım, Oy Verme, Partizanlık, Türkiye

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