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Seismicity of the Southern Marmara Region (Türkiye) Before and After the August 17, 1999 İzmit Earthquake

Year 2023, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 22 - 33, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.52114/apjhad.1218427

Abstract

In the present study seismicity of the Southern Marmara Region before and after the 1999 İzmit earthquake are analyzed and compared. A homogeneous seismicity catalogue that have completeness above the MC=2.9 and covers the time period between 1978 and 2020 is used. Comparison of the spatial mapping of the frequency-magnitude distribution before and after the 1999 İzmit earthquake revealed that b-values demonstrate a general increase after the earthquake indicating a general stress decrease in the region. The shortest computed TL value of about 450 years in the east of city of Bursa vanished after the 1999 earthquake. The computed time variations of b-value have shown an increase from 0.8 to 1.6 between 1978 and 1997 and an anomalous increase from 1.1 to 2.1 between 2000 and 2006. After 2006, b-values have decreased from 2.1 to 0.8, implying that decreased stress after the 1999 İzmit earthquake begun to increase after that year. Since the historical seismicity indicates no large earthquake on the fault segments of the North Anatolian Fault Zone extending along the towns of Geyve, İznik, Gemlik and Bandırma are considered to be most likely faults to host the next destructive earthquakes in the region.

Supporting Institution

TUBİTAK

Project Number

121Y271

Thanks

This study was both funded by The Scientific and Technical Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK) (project number: 121Y271).

References

  • A. Barka and K. Kadinsky-Cade, “Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity,” Tectonics, vol. 7, pp. 663-684, 1988.
  • S. McClusky, S. Balassanian, A. Barka, C. Demir, S. Ergintav, I. Georgiev, O. Gürkan, M. Hamburger, k Hurst, H. Kahle, K. Kastens, M. Nadariya, A. Ouzounis, D. Paradissis, Y. Peter, M. Prilepin, R. Reilinger, I. Sanli, H. Seeger, A. Tealeb, M. N. Toksöz and G. Veis, “GPS constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus,” J. Geophys. Res., vol. 105, pp. 5695-5719, 2000.
  • A. M. C. Şengör, O. Tüysüz, C. Imren, M. Sakınç, H. Eyidoğan, N. Görür, X. Le Pichon and C. Rangin, “The North Anatolian Fault: A new look,” Annu. Rev. Earth Planet, vol. 33, pp. 37-112, 2005.
  • Ö. Emre, T. Y. Duman, S. Özalp, H. Elmacı, Ş. Olgun, and F. Şaroğlu, “Active fault map of Turkey with explanatory text,” General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration Special Publication Series, 30. Ankara, Turkey, 2013.
  • T. Armijo, B. Meyer, S. Navarro, G. King and A. Barka, “Asymmetric slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: a clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian Fault?” Terra Novai, vol. 14, pp. 80-86, 2002.
  • H. Yalçın, A. Kürçer, M. Utkucu and L. Gülen, “Seismotectonics of the Southern Marmara Region, Nw Turkey,” Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece, vol. 50, pp. 173-181, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11717
  • F. Flerit, R. Armijo, G. C. P. King, B. Meyer and A. Barka, “Slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart determined from GPS velocity vectors,” Geophys. J. Int., vol. 154, pp. 1-7, 2003.
  • N. Ambraseys, “The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea Region over the last 2000 years,” Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 92, pp. 1-18, 2002.
  • N. Ambraseys, “Earthquakes in the Mediterranean and Middle East: a multidisciplinary study of seismicity up to 1900” Cambridge University Press., ISBN: 978-0-521-87292-8, 2009.
  • R. Gutenberg, and C. F. Richter, “Frequency of earthquakes in California,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., vol. 34, pp. 185-188, 1944.
  • S. Wiemer, and M. Wyss, “Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities: an improved technique to calculate recurrence times?” J. Geophys. Res., vol. 102, pp. 15115-15128, 1997.
  • B.C. Papazachos, G.F. Karakaisis and E.M. Scordilis, “Time dependent seismicity in the continental fracture system” Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata., vol. 55, 3, 617-639. DOI 10.4430/bgta0117, 2014.
  • S. Öztürk, “Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis” Acta Geophysica, 59(2), 209–238, 2011.
  • K.H. Çoban and N. Sayıl, “Different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrences along the North and East Anatolian fault zones”, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13, 971, 2020.
  • P. Chingtham, R.B.S. Yadav, S. Chopra, Arabind Kumar Yadav, A.K. Gupta, P.N.S. Roy, “Time-dependent seismicity analysis in the Northwest Himalaya and its adjoining regions” Nat Hazards, 80:1783–1800, DOI 10.1007/s11069-015-2031-0, 2016.
  • S. Pasari, “Nowcasting Earthquakes in the Bay of Bengal Region” Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176, pages1417–1432, 2019.
  • N. Sayıl, “Evaluation of the seismicity for the Marmara region with statistical approaches”, Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica, 49, 265–281, 2014.
  • S. Wiemer, “A software package to analyse seismicity: ZMAP”. Seis Res Let 72(3): 373–382, 2001.
  • N. N. Ambraseys and C. F. Finkel, “The Saros-Marmara earthquake of 9 August 1912,” Earthquake Eng. and Struct. Dyn., vol. 15, pp. 189-211, 1987.
  • R. A. Ganse and J. B. Nelson, “1982 Catalog of Significant Earthquakes 2000 B.C. To 1979, Including Quantitative Casualties and Damage,” Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 72, No. 3, pp. 873-877, 1982
  • B.C. Papazachos and C.B. Papazachou, “The earthquakes of Greece” Ziti Publication, Thessaloniki, 304, 1997.
  • O. Tan, “A homogeneous earthquake catalogue for Turkey,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 21, pp. 2059–2073, 2021. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2059-2021.
  • A.O. Öncel and M. Wyss, “The major asperities of the 1999 MW=7.4 İzmit earthquake defined by the microseismicity of the two decades before it,” Geophys. J. Int., vol. 143, pp. 501-506, 2000.
  • K. Aki, “Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N= a-bM and its confidence limits,” Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo, vol 43, pp. 237-239, 1965.
  • A. Kürçer, A. Chatzipetros, S. Z. Tutkun, S. Pavlides, Ö. Ateş and S., Valkaniotis, “The Yenice-Gönen active fault (NW Turkey): Active tectonics and paleoseismology,” Tectonophysics, vol. 453, pp. 263-175, 2008.
  • A. Kürçer, V. Özaksoy, S. Özalp, Ç. Uygun Güldoğan, E. Özdemir and T. Y. Duman, “The Manyas fault zone (southern Marmara region, NW Turkey): active tectonics and paleoseismology,” Geodinamica Acta, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 42-61, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2017.1294013.
  • A. Kop, S. Özalp, H. Elmacı, M. Kara and T. Y. Duman, “Active tectonic and paleoseismological features of the western section of Mustafakemalpaşa Fault; Bursa, NW Anatolia,” Geodinamica Acta, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 363-378, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2016.1208525.
  • H. Sözbilir, Ç. Özkaymak, B. Uzel, Ö. Sümer, S. Eski and Ç. Tepe, “Paleoseismology of the Havran-Balıkesir Fault Zone: evidence for past earthquakes in the strike-slip-dominated contractional deformation along the southern branches of the North Anatolian fault in northwest Turkey,” Geodinamica Acta, vol.28, no.4, pp. 254-272, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2016.1171111.
  • V. Özaksoy, H. Elmacı, S. Özalp, M. Kara and T. Y. Duman, “Holocene activity of the Orhaneli Fault based on paleoseismological data, Bursa, NW Anatolia,” Bull. Min. Res. Exp., vol. 156, pp. 1-16, 2018.
  • V. Karabacak, T. Sancar, A. Saglam Selcuk and Y. Buyukdeniz, “Paleoseismicity of the Ulubat Fault: Inferences on Seismic Behaviour of the Southern Branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, South Marmara,” Turkish Journal of Earthquake Research, vol. 3, no. 1, pp.1-19, 2021.
  • KOERI, “26 Eylül 2019 Silivri açıkları-İstanbul (Marmara Denizi) Depremi, Basın Bülteni, Kandilli Rasathanesi Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü, İstanbul, 2019.
  • M. Utkucu, E. Budakoğlu and H. Durmuş, “A Discussion on the Seismicity and Seismic Hazard of the Marmara Region (NW Turkey),” Bulletin of the Earth Sciences Application and Research Centre of Hacettepe University, vol. 32, no.3, pp. 187-212, 2011.
Year 2023, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 22 - 33, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.52114/apjhad.1218427

Abstract

Project Number

121Y271

References

  • A. Barka and K. Kadinsky-Cade, “Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity,” Tectonics, vol. 7, pp. 663-684, 1988.
  • S. McClusky, S. Balassanian, A. Barka, C. Demir, S. Ergintav, I. Georgiev, O. Gürkan, M. Hamburger, k Hurst, H. Kahle, K. Kastens, M. Nadariya, A. Ouzounis, D. Paradissis, Y. Peter, M. Prilepin, R. Reilinger, I. Sanli, H. Seeger, A. Tealeb, M. N. Toksöz and G. Veis, “GPS constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus,” J. Geophys. Res., vol. 105, pp. 5695-5719, 2000.
  • A. M. C. Şengör, O. Tüysüz, C. Imren, M. Sakınç, H. Eyidoğan, N. Görür, X. Le Pichon and C. Rangin, “The North Anatolian Fault: A new look,” Annu. Rev. Earth Planet, vol. 33, pp. 37-112, 2005.
  • Ö. Emre, T. Y. Duman, S. Özalp, H. Elmacı, Ş. Olgun, and F. Şaroğlu, “Active fault map of Turkey with explanatory text,” General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration Special Publication Series, 30. Ankara, Turkey, 2013.
  • T. Armijo, B. Meyer, S. Navarro, G. King and A. Barka, “Asymmetric slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: a clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian Fault?” Terra Novai, vol. 14, pp. 80-86, 2002.
  • H. Yalçın, A. Kürçer, M. Utkucu and L. Gülen, “Seismotectonics of the Southern Marmara Region, Nw Turkey,” Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece, vol. 50, pp. 173-181, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11717
  • F. Flerit, R. Armijo, G. C. P. King, B. Meyer and A. Barka, “Slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart determined from GPS velocity vectors,” Geophys. J. Int., vol. 154, pp. 1-7, 2003.
  • N. Ambraseys, “The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea Region over the last 2000 years,” Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 92, pp. 1-18, 2002.
  • N. Ambraseys, “Earthquakes in the Mediterranean and Middle East: a multidisciplinary study of seismicity up to 1900” Cambridge University Press., ISBN: 978-0-521-87292-8, 2009.
  • R. Gutenberg, and C. F. Richter, “Frequency of earthquakes in California,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., vol. 34, pp. 185-188, 1944.
  • S. Wiemer, and M. Wyss, “Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities: an improved technique to calculate recurrence times?” J. Geophys. Res., vol. 102, pp. 15115-15128, 1997.
  • B.C. Papazachos, G.F. Karakaisis and E.M. Scordilis, “Time dependent seismicity in the continental fracture system” Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata., vol. 55, 3, 617-639. DOI 10.4430/bgta0117, 2014.
  • S. Öztürk, “Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis” Acta Geophysica, 59(2), 209–238, 2011.
  • K.H. Çoban and N. Sayıl, “Different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrences along the North and East Anatolian fault zones”, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13, 971, 2020.
  • P. Chingtham, R.B.S. Yadav, S. Chopra, Arabind Kumar Yadav, A.K. Gupta, P.N.S. Roy, “Time-dependent seismicity analysis in the Northwest Himalaya and its adjoining regions” Nat Hazards, 80:1783–1800, DOI 10.1007/s11069-015-2031-0, 2016.
  • S. Pasari, “Nowcasting Earthquakes in the Bay of Bengal Region” Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176, pages1417–1432, 2019.
  • N. Sayıl, “Evaluation of the seismicity for the Marmara region with statistical approaches”, Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica, 49, 265–281, 2014.
  • S. Wiemer, “A software package to analyse seismicity: ZMAP”. Seis Res Let 72(3): 373–382, 2001.
  • N. N. Ambraseys and C. F. Finkel, “The Saros-Marmara earthquake of 9 August 1912,” Earthquake Eng. and Struct. Dyn., vol. 15, pp. 189-211, 1987.
  • R. A. Ganse and J. B. Nelson, “1982 Catalog of Significant Earthquakes 2000 B.C. To 1979, Including Quantitative Casualties and Damage,” Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 72, No. 3, pp. 873-877, 1982
  • B.C. Papazachos and C.B. Papazachou, “The earthquakes of Greece” Ziti Publication, Thessaloniki, 304, 1997.
  • O. Tan, “A homogeneous earthquake catalogue for Turkey,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 21, pp. 2059–2073, 2021. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2059-2021.
  • A.O. Öncel and M. Wyss, “The major asperities of the 1999 MW=7.4 İzmit earthquake defined by the microseismicity of the two decades before it,” Geophys. J. Int., vol. 143, pp. 501-506, 2000.
  • K. Aki, “Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N= a-bM and its confidence limits,” Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo, vol 43, pp. 237-239, 1965.
  • A. Kürçer, A. Chatzipetros, S. Z. Tutkun, S. Pavlides, Ö. Ateş and S., Valkaniotis, “The Yenice-Gönen active fault (NW Turkey): Active tectonics and paleoseismology,” Tectonophysics, vol. 453, pp. 263-175, 2008.
  • A. Kürçer, V. Özaksoy, S. Özalp, Ç. Uygun Güldoğan, E. Özdemir and T. Y. Duman, “The Manyas fault zone (southern Marmara region, NW Turkey): active tectonics and paleoseismology,” Geodinamica Acta, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 42-61, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2017.1294013.
  • A. Kop, S. Özalp, H. Elmacı, M. Kara and T. Y. Duman, “Active tectonic and paleoseismological features of the western section of Mustafakemalpaşa Fault; Bursa, NW Anatolia,” Geodinamica Acta, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 363-378, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2016.1208525.
  • H. Sözbilir, Ç. Özkaymak, B. Uzel, Ö. Sümer, S. Eski and Ç. Tepe, “Paleoseismology of the Havran-Balıkesir Fault Zone: evidence for past earthquakes in the strike-slip-dominated contractional deformation along the southern branches of the North Anatolian fault in northwest Turkey,” Geodinamica Acta, vol.28, no.4, pp. 254-272, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2016.1171111.
  • V. Özaksoy, H. Elmacı, S. Özalp, M. Kara and T. Y. Duman, “Holocene activity of the Orhaneli Fault based on paleoseismological data, Bursa, NW Anatolia,” Bull. Min. Res. Exp., vol. 156, pp. 1-16, 2018.
  • V. Karabacak, T. Sancar, A. Saglam Selcuk and Y. Buyukdeniz, “Paleoseismicity of the Ulubat Fault: Inferences on Seismic Behaviour of the Southern Branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, South Marmara,” Turkish Journal of Earthquake Research, vol. 3, no. 1, pp.1-19, 2021.
  • KOERI, “26 Eylül 2019 Silivri açıkları-İstanbul (Marmara Denizi) Depremi, Basın Bülteni, Kandilli Rasathanesi Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü, İstanbul, 2019.
  • M. Utkucu, E. Budakoğlu and H. Durmuş, “A Discussion on the Seismicity and Seismic Hazard of the Marmara Region (NW Turkey),” Bulletin of the Earth Sciences Application and Research Centre of Hacettepe University, vol. 32, no.3, pp. 187-212, 2011.
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Civil Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Murat Utkucu 0000-0001-7528-937X

Fatih Uzunca 0000-0002-6647-8977

Hatice Durmuş 0000-0003-4337-7302

Serap Kırım 0000-0002-8382-5109

Süleyman Sami Nalbant 0000-0002-7944-5912

Project Number 121Y271
Publication Date June 30, 2023
Submission Date December 19, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

IEEE M. Utkucu, F. Uzunca, H. Durmuş, S. Kırım, and S. S. Nalbant, “Seismicity of the Southern Marmara Region (Türkiye) Before and After the August 17, 1999 İzmit Earthquake”, APJHAD, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 22–33, 2023, doi: 10.52114/apjhad.1218427.
Academic Platform Journal of Natural Hazards and Disaster Management (APJHAD)