Spatial Assessment of the Effects of Afforestation Scenarios on Erosion Risk Using the ICONA Model: A Case Study from the Terme Stream Watershed

Abstract

This study evaluates the spatial distribution of erosion risk in the Terme Stream Catchment, located in Çankırı Province, using the ICONA model. The analysis incorporates parameters such as existing land cover, slope, geological structure, and vegetation canopy density. Four afforestation scenarios (10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% increase) were developed to examine potential changes in erosion risk. Results indicate that 67.8% of the catchment is currently under high and very high erosion risk. Scenario analyses revealed significant reductions in erosion risk with increasing afforestation rates, with the 30% targeted afforestation scenario providing the most cost-effective solution. The study demonstrates the applicability of the ICONA model under Turkish conditions and contributes scientifically to the development of sustainable land management and erosion control strategies at the watershed scale.

Keywords

• Soil conservation
• Erosion
• Semi-arid
• GIS
• Çankırı

Ağaçlandırma Senaryolarının Erozyon Riski Üzerindeki Etkisinin ICONA Modeli ile Mekânsal Değerlendirilmesi: Terme Çayı Havzası Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Çankırı ili sınırlarında yer alan Terme Çayı Havzası’nda erozyon riskinin mekânsal dağılımı ICONA modeli kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Analizlerde havzanın mevcut arazi örtüsü, eğim, jeolojik yapı ve bitki örtüsü kapalılığı parametreleri kullanılmış ve dört farklı ağaçlandırma senaryosu (%10, %20, %30 ve %50 artış) oluşturularak erozyon riskindeki olası değişimler karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar, mevcut durumda havzanın %67.8’inin yüksek ve çok yüksek erozyon riski altında olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Senaryo analizleri, ağaçlandırma oranı arttıkça erozyon riskinde belirgin azalmalar olduğunu göstermiş; özellikle %30 oranındaki hedefli ağaçlandırma uygulamasının maliyet-yarar dengesi açısından en verimli seçenek olduğu belirlenmiştir. Çalışma, ICONA modelinin Türkiye koşullarında uygulanabilirliğini ortaya koymakta ve havza bazlı sürdürülebilir arazi yönetimi ile erozyon kontrol stratejilerinin geliştirilmesine bilimsel katkı sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Toprak koruma
• Erozyon
• Yarı-kurak
• CBS
• Çankırı

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