Adversarial risk analysis in national security decision problems: a hypothetical case of Eastern Mediterranean conflict

Year 2023, , 62 - 73, 08.06.2023

Gülşah Bozcu , Esma Nur Çinicioğlu

https://doi.org/10.58588/aru-jfeas.1247679

Abstract

Adversarial risk analysis (ARA), with its capabilities to analyze the opponent’s decision-making process, predict the possible steps that the opponent may follow and choose the decision choice to maximize the analyst’s expected utility, is an effective model to be used in strategic decision problems involving an intelligent opponent. In contrast to classical game theory adversarial risk analysis does not employ the common knowledge assumption and instead uses a subjective probability distribution over the opponent’s decisions and the utilities. Consequently, problems modelled using ARA can be solved realistically. In strategic decision problems concerning national security, using analytical models which can offer a systematic view and evaluation process becomes important. In this work, a hypothetical problem regarding Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean conflict is modeled and solved using ARA. The ARA model exemplified in this work has the capability both to analyze the opponent’s decision-making process and also to make scenario analyses based on the evidence observed on the model. This research is the first to theme the Eastern Mediterranean conflict, a strategically important decision-making problem concerning national security and to solve its hypothetical model created using the Adversarial Risk Analysis.

Keywords

Adversarial Risk Analysis, Influence Diagrams, Eastern Mediterranean Conflict, Defense-Attack Problem

Ulusal güvenlik karar problemlerinde karşıtsal risk analizi: Doğu Akdeniz problemi örnek modelleme

Abstract

Karşıtsal risk analizi (KRA) akıllı rakipleri barındıran problemlerde karar vericiye sağladığı, rakibin karar verme sürecini ve düşünme sistematiğini analiz etme, rakibin atması muhtemel adımları öngörme ve bu doğrultuda beklenen faydasını maksimize edecek karar seçeneğini belirleme gibi özellikleri ile stratejik karar problemlerine başarılı bir şekilde uygulanabilecek etkin bir modelleme yöntemidir. KRA’nın, klasik oyun teorisinin aksine ortak bilgi varsayımını benimsememesi ve rakip tarafın karar ve faydaları için öznel bir olasılık dağılımı kullanması, KRA ile modellenen problemlerin gerçekçi bir şekilde çözümüne imkân tanımaktadır. Milli güvenliği ilgilendiren stratejik karar problemlerinde sistematik bir bakış açısı ve değerlendirme imkânı sağlayan analitik modellerin kullanılması önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin Doğu Akdeniz problemi ele alınmış ve konu çerçevesinde oluşturulan hipotetik bir örneğin KRA ile modellemesi ve çözümü yapılmıştır. Oluşturulan model, hem rakip tarafın düşünce sistematiğinin analiz edilmesine imkân vermekte hem de model çerçevesinde gözlemler dâhilinde senaryo analizlerini mümkün kılmaktadır. Stratejik bakımdan önemi büyük, milli güvenliğe dair problemlerin değerlendirilmesi için, farklı, etkin analitik modellerin uygulanabilirliğinin gösterilmesi önemlidir. Bu çalışma, bir ulusal güvenlik stratejik karar problemi olan Doğu Akdeniz meselesini konu alması ve çalışmada oluşturulan alan hipotetik modeli KRA ile çözmesi bakımından bir ilk niteliğindedir.

Keywords

Karşıtsal Risk Analizi, Etki Diyagramları, Doğu Akdeniz Problemi, Savunma-Saldırı Modeli

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