Futbolda Üç Puan Kuralı, Gol Sayısı ve Öngörülebilirlik: Markov-Rejim Değişim Modeli ile Uzun Dönemli Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu araştırmada Markov-Rejim Değişim Modeli yaklaşımı kullanılarak futbolda üç puan kuralı uygulamasının atılan gol sayısı ve maçların öngörülebilirliği üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Türkiye Birinci Futbol Ligi örneğinde 61 sezonu ve üç takımı kapsayan analizde elde edilen sonuçlar beklendiği gibi üç puan kuralının maçlardaki gol sayısını arttırdığını göstermiştir. Ancak üç puan kuralının maçların öngörülebilirliği üzerindeki etkileri her takım içi farklıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Futbol
• Üç Puan Kuralı
• Öngörülebilirlik
• Football
• Three-Point Rule
• Predictability

Three-Point Rule, Average Goals Per Game and Predictability in Football: A Long-Term Analysis with The Markov-Regime Switching Approach

Abstract

In this study, the effects of the three-point rule in football on the average goals per game and the predictability of the matches were investigated by using the Markov-Regime Switching Model. The results obtained in the analysis covering 61 seasons and 3 teams in the example of the Turkish First Division Football League showed that the three-point rule increased the average goals per game, as expected. However, the effects of the three-point rule on the predictability of matches are different for each team.

Keywords

• Football
• Three-Point Rule
• Predictability

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