Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

BAZI GELİŞMİŞ ÜLKELERDE KAMU HARCAMALARI ve VERGİ GELİRLERİ ÜZERİNDEN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK SINAMASI: YAPISAL KIRILMALI BİRİM KÖK TESTİ

Year 2018, Volume: 5 Issue: 12, 108 - 117, 30.12.2018

Abstract

Mali sürdürülebilirliğin varlığından veya
kamu borçlarının sürdürülebilirliğinden bahsedebilmek için literatürde yaygın
olarak ekonometrik testlerden faydalanılmaktadır. Mali sürdürülebilirlik
kavramı, kamu harcamaları ve vergi gelirleri yönünden ele alınırken sıklıkla
kullanılan ekonometrik testlerden biri de birim kök testleridir. Kamu
harcamalarının ve vergi gelirlerinin I (0) düzeyde durağan olması durumunda
mali sürdürülebilirlikten bahsedilebilir. 
Bu çalışmada gelişmiş ülkelerden bazılarına
ait 142 yıllık veri seti ile kamu harcamaları ve vergi gelirleri değişkenleri
Im, Lee ve Tieslau (2005; 2012) tarafından geliştirilen Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel
Birim Kök Testleri yardımı ile mali sürdürülebilirlik kapsamında
araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti 1870-2011 dönemlerini
kapsayacak şekilde Paolo
vd. (2013) tarafından hazırlanan veri setinden derlenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde
edilen bulgular 1870-2011 dönemi için ABD, İngiltere, İtalya ve Kanada için
mali sürdürülebilirliğin geçerli olduğuna yöneliktir. Ancak tek yapısal
kırılmalı birim kök test sonuçlarına göre sadece İngiltere’de mali
sürdürülebilirlikten söz edilebilir. Diğer yandan yapısal kırılma tarihleri
kamu harcamaları ve vergi gelirleri yönünden farklıdır.

References

  • AFONSO, Antóniove ve Jalles, João Tovar (2011), “A Longer-run Perspective on Fiscal Sustainability”, Scholl of Economics and Management, Technical Universty of Lisbon, Department of Economics, Working Paper No: 0874-4548.
  • ARISOY, İbrahim ve Ünlükaplan, İlter (2010), “Türkiye’de Mali Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği ile Kamu Gelirleri ve Harcamaları ilişkisinin Analizi”, Maliye Dergisi, 159, 444-462.
  • BURRET, Heiko, Feld, Lars ve Köhler, Ekkehard, A. (2016), “(Un-) Sustainability of Public Finances in German Laender: A Panel Time Series Approach”, Economic Modelling, 53, 254-265.
  • BURRET, Heiko, Feld, Lars ve Köhler, Ekkehard, A. (2017), “Fiscal Sustainability of the German Laender: Time-Series Evidence”, Finanz Archiv: Public Finance Analysis, 73(1), 103-132.
  • CUESTAS, Carlos Juan ve Staehr, Karsten (2011), “Fiscal Shocks and Budget Balance Persistence in EU Countries from Central and Eastern Europe”, Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series SERP Number: 2011014.
  • GOYAL, Rajan, Khundrakpam, Jeevan, Kumar ve Ray, Partha (2004), “Is India’s Public Finance Unsustainable? or, Are the Claims Exaggerated?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, No: 26, 401-420.
  • IM, Kyung, Lee, Junsoo ve Tieslau, Margie (2005), “Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 67.
  • IM, Kyung, Lee, Junsoo ve Tieslau, Margie (2012), “Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level and Trend Shifts”, Working Paper.
  • JHA, Raghbendra ve Sharma, Anurag (2001), “Structural Breaks and Unit Roots: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit”, ASARC Working Paper, September.
  • JOSEPH-Scott, Ankie (2008), “An Exploration of Alternative Methodologies for Assesing Debt and Fiscal Sustainability”, Journal of Business, Finance and Economics in Emerging Economies, Vol: 3, No: 2, 176-216.
  • KAYA, Ayşe (2012), “Mali Sürdürülebilirlik: Teori ve Türkiye Uygulaması”, Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Maliye Ana Bilim Dalı, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara.
  • KINSEY, Robert R. (1962), “Major State Tax Changes Enacted in1961 - The Advisory Commission On Intergovernmental Relations”, An Informational Paper, Washington 25, D.C.: February 1962: M-13.
  • MARTIN, Gael, M. (2000), “United States Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach on Multiple Endogenous Breaks”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15, 83-105.
  • MERİH, Uctum, Thom, Thurston ve Remzi, Uctum (2006), “Public Debt, the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Breaks: A Multi-country Analysis”, Economica, Wiley, 2006, 73 (289), 129-156.
  • OHANIAN, Lee, E. (2018), The Macroeconomic Effects of War Finance in the United States, Routledge Library Editions, Taxation: Online Erişim Tarihi: 10.09.1018
  • PHIRI, Andrew (2018), “Fiscal Sustainability in BRICS Countries: Evidence from Asymmetric Unit-root Tests Augmented with Fouries Function”, MPRA, Working Paper No: 85501.
  • PAOLO Mauro, Rafael Romeu, Ariel Binder ve Asad Zaman (2013), “A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy,” IMF Working Paper No. 13/5,
  • SAMIMI, Ahmad Jafari ve Petanlar, Karimi Saeed (2017), “Testing Fiscal Reaction Function in İran: An Application of Nonlinear Dickey Fuller (NDF) Test”, Iran Economic Review, 21 (3), 567-581.
  • TREHAN, Bharatve ve Walsh, Carl (1988), “Common Trends, the Government Budget Constraint and Revenue Smoothing”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 425-444.
  • QUİNTOS, Carmela, E. (1995), “Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(4), 409-417.
Year 2018, Volume: 5 Issue: 12, 108 - 117, 30.12.2018

Abstract

References

  • AFONSO, Antóniove ve Jalles, João Tovar (2011), “A Longer-run Perspective on Fiscal Sustainability”, Scholl of Economics and Management, Technical Universty of Lisbon, Department of Economics, Working Paper No: 0874-4548.
  • ARISOY, İbrahim ve Ünlükaplan, İlter (2010), “Türkiye’de Mali Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği ile Kamu Gelirleri ve Harcamaları ilişkisinin Analizi”, Maliye Dergisi, 159, 444-462.
  • BURRET, Heiko, Feld, Lars ve Köhler, Ekkehard, A. (2016), “(Un-) Sustainability of Public Finances in German Laender: A Panel Time Series Approach”, Economic Modelling, 53, 254-265.
  • BURRET, Heiko, Feld, Lars ve Köhler, Ekkehard, A. (2017), “Fiscal Sustainability of the German Laender: Time-Series Evidence”, Finanz Archiv: Public Finance Analysis, 73(1), 103-132.
  • CUESTAS, Carlos Juan ve Staehr, Karsten (2011), “Fiscal Shocks and Budget Balance Persistence in EU Countries from Central and Eastern Europe”, Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series SERP Number: 2011014.
  • GOYAL, Rajan, Khundrakpam, Jeevan, Kumar ve Ray, Partha (2004), “Is India’s Public Finance Unsustainable? or, Are the Claims Exaggerated?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, No: 26, 401-420.
  • IM, Kyung, Lee, Junsoo ve Tieslau, Margie (2005), “Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 67.
  • IM, Kyung, Lee, Junsoo ve Tieslau, Margie (2012), “Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level and Trend Shifts”, Working Paper.
  • JHA, Raghbendra ve Sharma, Anurag (2001), “Structural Breaks and Unit Roots: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit”, ASARC Working Paper, September.
  • JOSEPH-Scott, Ankie (2008), “An Exploration of Alternative Methodologies for Assesing Debt and Fiscal Sustainability”, Journal of Business, Finance and Economics in Emerging Economies, Vol: 3, No: 2, 176-216.
  • KAYA, Ayşe (2012), “Mali Sürdürülebilirlik: Teori ve Türkiye Uygulaması”, Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Maliye Ana Bilim Dalı, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara.
  • KINSEY, Robert R. (1962), “Major State Tax Changes Enacted in1961 - The Advisory Commission On Intergovernmental Relations”, An Informational Paper, Washington 25, D.C.: February 1962: M-13.
  • MARTIN, Gael, M. (2000), “United States Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach on Multiple Endogenous Breaks”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15, 83-105.
  • MERİH, Uctum, Thom, Thurston ve Remzi, Uctum (2006), “Public Debt, the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Breaks: A Multi-country Analysis”, Economica, Wiley, 2006, 73 (289), 129-156.
  • OHANIAN, Lee, E. (2018), The Macroeconomic Effects of War Finance in the United States, Routledge Library Editions, Taxation: Online Erişim Tarihi: 10.09.1018
  • PHIRI, Andrew (2018), “Fiscal Sustainability in BRICS Countries: Evidence from Asymmetric Unit-root Tests Augmented with Fouries Function”, MPRA, Working Paper No: 85501.
  • PAOLO Mauro, Rafael Romeu, Ariel Binder ve Asad Zaman (2013), “A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy,” IMF Working Paper No. 13/5,
  • SAMIMI, Ahmad Jafari ve Petanlar, Karimi Saeed (2017), “Testing Fiscal Reaction Function in İran: An Application of Nonlinear Dickey Fuller (NDF) Test”, Iran Economic Review, 21 (3), 567-581.
  • TREHAN, Bharatve ve Walsh, Carl (1988), “Common Trends, the Government Budget Constraint and Revenue Smoothing”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 425-444.
  • QUİNTOS, Carmela, E. (1995), “Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(4), 409-417.
There are 20 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

İbrahim Özmen This is me

Selçuk Balı This is me

Publication Date December 30, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 5 Issue: 12

Cite

APA Özmen, İ., & Balı, S. (2018). BAZI GELİŞMİŞ ÜLKELERDE KAMU HARCAMALARI ve VERGİ GELİRLERİ ÜZERİNDEN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK SINAMASI: YAPISAL KIRILMALI BİRİM KÖK TESTİ. Avrasya Sosyal Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(12), 108-117.