The impact of foreing visitor spending on economic growth ( 1970-2007 )

Abstract

Tourism is one of the most important industries in the world and one of the fastest growing sectors of economic activity. Like in many developing countries, the foreign visitor spending in Turkey is a deterministic variable on economic growth. This paper examines the role of foreign visitor spending in the Turkish long-run economic growth by using Phillips - Perron test, Cointegration approach, Granger Causality test over the period of 1970-2007. The empirical findings obtained have shown that foreign visitor spending has had a positive effect on economic growth. In addition, the results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship and further a uni-directional causality between the two variables. This means that there is a uni-directional causality from foreign visitor spending to economic growth.

Keywords

• economic growth,Turkey,tourism investments,cointegration,Granger causality test,Phillips - Perron test,tourism industry,tourism economy,tourism revenues,tourism sector,foreign tourist spending,foreign tourists,econometrics

Yabancı ziyaretçi harcamalarının ekonomik büyümeye etkisi ( 1970-2007 )

Öz

Dünyanın en önemli endüstrilerinden biri olan turizm, ekonomik aktivitenin de en hızlı geliştiği sektörlerin başında yer almaktadır. Çoğu gelişmekte olan ülke gibi Türkiye'de yabancı ziyaretçi harcamaları, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde belirleyici bir değişkendir. Bu çalışmada, yabancı ziyaretçi harcamalarının uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme içerisindeki rolü ele alınmaktadır. Bu bağlamda 1970–2007 dönemi için Phillips ve Perron, Eş bütünleşme ve Nedensellik analizleri yapılmış ve elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar ışığında yabancı ziyaretçi harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde yarattığı etki ortaya konulmuştur. Ayrıca, yabancı ziyaretçi harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi de ortaya çıkarılmıştır. Diğer bir ifadeyle, analiz sonuçları, yabancı ziyaretçi harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde bir etki yarattığını ve bu etkinin yabancı ziyaretçi harcamalarından ekonomik büyümeye doğru olduğunu göstermektedir ancak ekonomik büyümeden yabancı ziyaretçi harcamasına doğru bir etki görülmemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ekonomik büyüme,Türkiye,turizm yatırımları,eş bütünleşme,Granger nedensellik testi,Phillips - Perron testi,turizm endüstrisi,turizm ekonomisi,turizm gelirleri,turizm sektörü,yabancı turist harcamaları,yabancı turistler,ekonometri

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