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TURİZME VE İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME: 1980-2005 TÜRKİYE DENEYİMİ

Year 2006, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 67 - 86, 27.11.2010

M. Kemal Değer

Abstract

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin (GOÜ) ekonomik performanslarını
etkileyen önemli faktörlerden birisi, mal ve hizmet ihracatıdır. İhracata dayalı
sanayileşme stratejilerinin teorik faydalarına rağmen, genellikle ilksel mal
ihracatçısı olan GOÜ’lerin yaşadıkları sıkıntılar, turizm ve hizmet ihracatının
önemi artırmıştır. Turizm, yurtiçi ekonomide çarpan ve ileri-geri bağlantı etkileri
nedeniyle üretim ve istihdam artışına neden olabilmektedir. Ayrıca turizm, başta
küçük ülke ekonomileri olmak üzere birçok GOÜ’nün ihraç ettiği mal karmasını
çeşitlendiren önemli bir araçtır. Bu çalışma, 1980-2005 dönemi mal ihracatı ve
turizmden elde edilen döviz gelirlerinin Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesi üzerine
etkilerini araştırmaktadır. Sıradan En Küçük Kareler (SEK) sonuçlarına göre, mal
ihracatı Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesinde pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı
etkilere sahipken, turizm gelirlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde anlamlı etkileri
bulunmamaktadır. Turizm ve mal ihracatı gelirleri birlikte ele alındığında, toplam
ihracat gelirlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkilere
sahip olduğu bulunmuştur. Bununla birlikte ekonomik büyüme üzerine turizm ve
mal ihracatının uzun dönemli etkileri, Johansen eş-bütünleşme testi ile ortaya
konulmuştur. Bu sonuçlar, dış ticaret gelirlerinin Türkiye ekonomisi için mevcut
ve gelecek dönemler açısından önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Birim Kök Testi Zaman Serisi Regresyon Analiz Eş-bütünleşme Testi

References

  • Ayres R., (2000) “Tourism as a Passport to Development in Small States: Reflections on Cyprus”, International Journal of Social Economics, 27 (2): 114-133.
  • Bahmani-Oskoee, M., H. Mohtadi and G. Shabsigh (1991) “Exports, Growth and Causality in LDCs: A Re-examination” Journal of Development Economics, 36: 405-415
  • Balassa B., (1978) “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 5 (6): 181-189.
  • Balassa, B. (1985) “Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries after the 1973 Oil Shock” Journal of Development Economics, 18: 23-35.
  • Balaguer, J. and M. Cantavella-Jordá (2002), “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34 (7): 877-884.
  • Brau, R., A. Lanza, and F. Pigliaru (2003), “How Fast are the Tourism Countries Growing? The Cross Country Evidence”, FEEM Working Paper No:85.2003, http://www.feem.it/NR/rdonlyres /59ADDAAD-7DD9-4098-8223-5DA32DA1F5D9/832/8503.pdf (Ocak 2006)
  • Brohman J., (1996) “New Directions in Tourism for Third World Development”, Annals of Tourism Research, 23 (1): 48-70.
  • Clancy M. J. (1999) “Tourism and Development: Evidence from Mexico”, Annals of Tourism Research, 26 (1): 1-20.
  • Dawe D., (1996) “A New Look at the Effects of Export Instability on Invesment and Growth”, World Development, 24 (12): 1906-1913.
  • Diamond J., (1977) “Tourism’s Role in Economic Development: The Case Reexamined”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 25 (3): 539-553.
  • Durbarry, R. (2004), “Tourism and Economic Growth: the Case of Mauritius”, Tourism Economics, 10(4): 389-401.
  • Edwards, S. (1993) “Openness, Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries” Journal of Economic Literature, 31: 1358-93.
  • Eugenio-Martín, J. L., N. M. Morales and R. Scarpa (2004) “Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach”, FEEM Working Paper No:26.2004, http://www.feem.it/NR/rdonlyres/881EB22A-4CF2-4FE8-9E78- D8C9AB1E65FD/1057/2604.pdf (Ocak 2006)
  • Feder G. (1983) “On Exports and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 12 (1-2): 59-73.
  • Ghatak, S., C. Milner and U. Utkulu (1997) “Exports, Export Composition and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Malaysia”, Applied Economics, 29:213-233.
  • Giles, Judith A. and Cara L. Williams (2000), Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results Part 1, Econometrics Working Paper EWP0001, http://web.uvic.ca/econ/ewp0001.pdf (Aralık 2005).
  • Glezakos C., (1973), “Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Statistical Verification”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 21: 670-678.
  • Greenaway, D. and D. Sapsford (1994a) “What Does Liberalization Do for Exports and Growth”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130: 152-74.
  • Greenaway, D. and D. Sapsford, (1994b) “Exports, Growth, and Liberalization: An Evaluation” Journal Of Policy Modelling, 16: 165-86.
  • Guillaumont, P., (1987) “From Export Instability Effects to International Stabilization Policies”, World Development, 15 (5): 633-643.
  • Henry E. W., and Deane B., (1997), “The Contribution of Tourism to Economy of Ireland in 1990 and 1995”, Tourism Management, 18 (8): 535- 553.
  • İlkin A., ve M. Z. Dinçer (1991), Turizm Kesiminin Türk Ekonomisindeki Yeri ve Önemi, TOBB Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Jiménez I. C., and M. A. Ortuño (2004), “The Role of the Tourism Sector in Economic Development: Lessons from the Spanish Experience”, http://www.feweb.vu.nl/ersa2005/final_papers/488.pdf (Şubat 2006)
  • Karluk, S. Rıdvan (1995), Türkiye Ekonomisi: Tarihsel Gelişim-Yapısal Değişim, 2. Baskı, Beta A.Ş. İstanbul.
  • Kazgan, G. (1988), Ekonomide Dışa Açık Büyüme, Son Gelişme ve Rakamlarla Güncelleştirilmiş 2. Basım, Altın Kitaplar Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Kenen P. B., and C. S. Voivodas (1972), “Export Instability and Economic Growth”, Kyklos, 25: 791-804.
  • Kepenek Y. ve N. Yentürk, (2000), Türkiye Ekonomisi, Geliştirilmiş 10. Basım, Remzi Kitabevi, İstanbul.
  • Kılıçbay, A. (1994), Türk Ekonomisi: Modeller, Politikalar ve Stratejiler, 5. Baskı, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Krueger A. O. (1980), “Trade Policy as an Input to Development”, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 70, May, 288-292.
  • Lanza A. and Pigliaru F. (2000), “Why are Tourism Countries Small and Fast- growing?”, http://www.crenos.it/working/pdf/99-6.pdf (Ocak 2006)
  • Lanza, A. P. Temple and G. Urga (2003) “The Implications of Tourism Specialisation In the Long Run: An Econometric Analysis for 13 OECD Economies”, Tourism Management, 24: 315-321.
  • Lim D., (1976), “Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Return to Fundamentals”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 38: 311-322.
  • Love J., (1987) “Export Instability in Less Developed Countries: Consequences and Causes”, Journal of Economic Studies, 14 (2): 3-80.
  • Love, J. (1994) “Engines of Growth: The Export and Government Sectors”,
  • World Economy, 17: 203-18.
  • MacBean A. I., (1966), Export Instability and Economic Development, George Allen&Unwin Ltd., London.
  • Maizels A. (1987), “Commodities in Crisis: An Overview of the Main Issues”, World Development, 15 (5): 537-549.
  • Perry J. M., J. W. Steagall and L. A. Woods (1997) “Cuban Tourism, Economic Growth, and The Welfare of Cuban Worker” Cuba in Transition, ASCE, http://lanic.utexas.edu/la/cb/cuba/asce/cuba7/Perry.pdf. (Kasım 2002).
  • Poirier, Robert A. (1997). “Political Risk Analysis and Tourism”, Annals of Tourism Research, 24 (3): 675-686.
  • Rural and Agricultural Incomes with Sustainable Environment (RAISE) (2002) “Tourism - Engine for Economic Growth and Sustainability Under RAISE”, http://www.raise.org/tourism/pubs/tourism.pdf. (Kasım 2002)
  • Ram, R. (1985) “Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence”
  • Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33: 415-425.
  • Ram R. (1987) “Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36 (1): 51-72.
  • Salvatore D. (1990) International Economics, Third Edition, Macmillan Publising Company, New York.
  • Sequeira T. N., and C. Campos (2005) “International Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach”, FEEM Working Paper No: 141.2005 http://www.feem.it/NR/rdonlyres/89519C3D-0544-4E07-B34A- BDF8A810E641/1796/14105.pdf (Ocak 2006).
  • Seyidoğlu H., (1999), Uluslararası İktisat: Teori, Politika ve Uygulama, Geliştirilmiş 13. Baskı, İstanbul.
  • Sinclair, M. T. and A. Tsegaye (1990) “International Tourism and Export Instability”, Journal of Development Studies, 26(3): 487-504.
  • Sinclair, M. T. (1998), “Tourism and Economic Development: a Survey”, Journal of Development Studies, 34 (5): 1-51.
  • Stork, Ute E. M. The Tourism Industry in the Third Millennium is a Resilient
  • Industry, Shown at the Impact of the Terror Attack of 9-11-2001, La
  • Salle University, 2002.
  • Şahin, H., (2002), Türkiye Ekonomisi: Tarihsel Gelişimi-Bugünkü Durumu,
  • Gözden Geçirilmiş ve Genişletilmiş 7. Baskı, Ezgi Kitabevi, Bursa.
  • Tooman L. A., (1997) “Tourism and Development”, Journal of Travel Research, Winter, 33-40. Veri Kaynakları
  • http://www.dpt.gov.tr
  • http://www.die.gov.tr
  • http://www.foreigntrade.gov.tr
  • http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
  • http://www.treasury.gov.tr

Year 2006, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 67 - 86, 27.11.2010

M. Kemal Değer

Abstract

References

  • Ayres R., (2000) “Tourism as a Passport to Development in Small States: Reflections on Cyprus”, International Journal of Social Economics, 27 (2): 114-133.
  • Bahmani-Oskoee, M., H. Mohtadi and G. Shabsigh (1991) “Exports, Growth and Causality in LDCs: A Re-examination” Journal of Development Economics, 36: 405-415
  • Balassa B., (1978) “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 5 (6): 181-189.
  • Balassa, B. (1985) “Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries after the 1973 Oil Shock” Journal of Development Economics, 18: 23-35.
  • Balaguer, J. and M. Cantavella-Jordá (2002), “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34 (7): 877-884.
  • Brau, R., A. Lanza, and F. Pigliaru (2003), “How Fast are the Tourism Countries Growing? The Cross Country Evidence”, FEEM Working Paper No:85.2003, http://www.feem.it/NR/rdonlyres /59ADDAAD-7DD9-4098-8223-5DA32DA1F5D9/832/8503.pdf (Ocak 2006)
  • Brohman J., (1996) “New Directions in Tourism for Third World Development”, Annals of Tourism Research, 23 (1): 48-70.
  • Clancy M. J. (1999) “Tourism and Development: Evidence from Mexico”, Annals of Tourism Research, 26 (1): 1-20.
  • Dawe D., (1996) “A New Look at the Effects of Export Instability on Invesment and Growth”, World Development, 24 (12): 1906-1913.
  • Diamond J., (1977) “Tourism’s Role in Economic Development: The Case Reexamined”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 25 (3): 539-553.
  • Durbarry, R. (2004), “Tourism and Economic Growth: the Case of Mauritius”, Tourism Economics, 10(4): 389-401.
  • Edwards, S. (1993) “Openness, Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries” Journal of Economic Literature, 31: 1358-93.
  • Eugenio-Martín, J. L., N. M. Morales and R. Scarpa (2004) “Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach”, FEEM Working Paper No:26.2004, http://www.feem.it/NR/rdonlyres/881EB22A-4CF2-4FE8-9E78- D8C9AB1E65FD/1057/2604.pdf (Ocak 2006)
  • Feder G. (1983) “On Exports and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 12 (1-2): 59-73.
  • Ghatak, S., C. Milner and U. Utkulu (1997) “Exports, Export Composition and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Malaysia”, Applied Economics, 29:213-233.
  • Giles, Judith A. and Cara L. Williams (2000), Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results Part 1, Econometrics Working Paper EWP0001, http://web.uvic.ca/econ/ewp0001.pdf (Aralık 2005).
  • Glezakos C., (1973), “Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Statistical Verification”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 21: 670-678.
  • Greenaway, D. and D. Sapsford (1994a) “What Does Liberalization Do for Exports and Growth”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130: 152-74.
  • Greenaway, D. and D. Sapsford, (1994b) “Exports, Growth, and Liberalization: An Evaluation” Journal Of Policy Modelling, 16: 165-86.
  • Guillaumont, P., (1987) “From Export Instability Effects to International Stabilization Policies”, World Development, 15 (5): 633-643.
  • Henry E. W., and Deane B., (1997), “The Contribution of Tourism to Economy of Ireland in 1990 and 1995”, Tourism Management, 18 (8): 535- 553.
  • İlkin A., ve M. Z. Dinçer (1991), Turizm Kesiminin Türk Ekonomisindeki Yeri ve Önemi, TOBB Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Jiménez I. C., and M. A. Ortuño (2004), “The Role of the Tourism Sector in Economic Development: Lessons from the Spanish Experience”, http://www.feweb.vu.nl/ersa2005/final_papers/488.pdf (Şubat 2006)
  • Karluk, S. Rıdvan (1995), Türkiye Ekonomisi: Tarihsel Gelişim-Yapısal Değişim, 2. Baskı, Beta A.Ş. İstanbul.
  • Kazgan, G. (1988), Ekonomide Dışa Açık Büyüme, Son Gelişme ve Rakamlarla Güncelleştirilmiş 2. Basım, Altın Kitaplar Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Kenen P. B., and C. S. Voivodas (1972), “Export Instability and Economic Growth”, Kyklos, 25: 791-804.
  • Kepenek Y. ve N. Yentürk, (2000), Türkiye Ekonomisi, Geliştirilmiş 10. Basım, Remzi Kitabevi, İstanbul.
  • Kılıçbay, A. (1994), Türk Ekonomisi: Modeller, Politikalar ve Stratejiler, 5. Baskı, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Krueger A. O. (1980), “Trade Policy as an Input to Development”, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 70, May, 288-292.
  • Lanza A. and Pigliaru F. (2000), “Why are Tourism Countries Small and Fast- growing?”, http://www.crenos.it/working/pdf/99-6.pdf (Ocak 2006)
  • Lanza, A. P. Temple and G. Urga (2003) “The Implications of Tourism Specialisation In the Long Run: An Econometric Analysis for 13 OECD Economies”, Tourism Management, 24: 315-321.
  • Lim D., (1976), “Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Return to Fundamentals”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 38: 311-322.
  • Love J., (1987) “Export Instability in Less Developed Countries: Consequences and Causes”, Journal of Economic Studies, 14 (2): 3-80.
  • Love, J. (1994) “Engines of Growth: The Export and Government Sectors”,
  • World Economy, 17: 203-18.
  • MacBean A. I., (1966), Export Instability and Economic Development, George Allen&Unwin Ltd., London.
  • Maizels A. (1987), “Commodities in Crisis: An Overview of the Main Issues”, World Development, 15 (5): 537-549.
  • Perry J. M., J. W. Steagall and L. A. Woods (1997) “Cuban Tourism, Economic Growth, and The Welfare of Cuban Worker” Cuba in Transition, ASCE, http://lanic.utexas.edu/la/cb/cuba/asce/cuba7/Perry.pdf. (Kasım 2002).
  • Poirier, Robert A. (1997). “Political Risk Analysis and Tourism”, Annals of Tourism Research, 24 (3): 675-686.
  • Rural and Agricultural Incomes with Sustainable Environment (RAISE) (2002) “Tourism - Engine for Economic Growth and Sustainability Under RAISE”, http://www.raise.org/tourism/pubs/tourism.pdf. (Kasım 2002)
  • Ram, R. (1985) “Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence”
  • Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33: 415-425.
  • Ram R. (1987) “Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36 (1): 51-72.
  • Salvatore D. (1990) International Economics, Third Edition, Macmillan Publising Company, New York.
  • Sequeira T. N., and C. Campos (2005) “International Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach”, FEEM Working Paper No: 141.2005 http://www.feem.it/NR/rdonlyres/89519C3D-0544-4E07-B34A- BDF8A810E641/1796/14105.pdf (Ocak 2006).
  • Seyidoğlu H., (1999), Uluslararası İktisat: Teori, Politika ve Uygulama, Geliştirilmiş 13. Baskı, İstanbul.
  • Sinclair, M. T. and A. Tsegaye (1990) “International Tourism and Export Instability”, Journal of Development Studies, 26(3): 487-504.
  • Sinclair, M. T. (1998), “Tourism and Economic Development: a Survey”, Journal of Development Studies, 34 (5): 1-51.
  • Stork, Ute E. M. The Tourism Industry in the Third Millennium is a Resilient
  • Industry, Shown at the Impact of the Terror Attack of 9-11-2001, La
  • Salle University, 2002.
  • Şahin, H., (2002), Türkiye Ekonomisi: Tarihsel Gelişimi-Bugünkü Durumu,
  • Gözden Geçirilmiş ve Genişletilmiş 7. Baskı, Ezgi Kitabevi, Bursa.
  • Tooman L. A., (1997) “Tourism and Development”, Journal of Travel Research, Winter, 33-40. Veri Kaynakları
  • http://www.dpt.gov.tr
  • http://www.die.gov.tr
  • http://www.foreigntrade.gov.tr
  • http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
  • http://www.treasury.gov.tr
There are 59 citations in total.

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Journal Section Makaleler
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M. Kemal Değer This is me

Publication Date November 27, 2010
Published in Issue Year 2006 Volume: 20 Issue: 2

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APA Değer, M. K. (2010). TURİZME VE İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME: 1980-2005 TÜRKİYE DENEYİMİ. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20(2), 67-86.
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