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REEL DÖVİZ KURUNUN TİCARET DENGESİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2008, Volume: 22 Issue: 2, 33 - 43, 27.11.2010

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, reel efektif döviz kuru değişkenliğiyle ticaret
dengesi arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkileri Türkiye’nin 1992:I-2006:IV
dönemi verileri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Uzun dönemde devalüasyonun
ticaret dengesini iyileştireceği yönündeki Marshall-Lerner (M-L) koşulunun
ampirik olarak desteklenmediği bulgusu elde edilmiştir. Reel efektif döviz kuru
değişkenliğinin ticaret dengesi üzerindeki kısa dönem etkileri ise anlamlı
çıkmamıştır.

References

  • Arize, A. C. (1987), “The Supply and Demand for Imports and Exports in a Simultaneous Model”, Applied Economics, September, ss. 1233-1247.
  • Arize, A. C. (1990), “An Econometric Investigation of Export Behavior in Seven Developing Countries”, Applied Economics. July, ss. 891-904,
  • Arize, A. C. (1991), “Specification Test of the Aggregate Import Demand in Developing Countries”, International Economic Journal, Spring, ss.79-89.
  • Arize, A. C. (1994), “Cointegration Test of A long-Run Relation Between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance”, International Economic Journal, 8(3), ss. 1-9.
  • Arize, A. C. ve Spalding, J. B. (1991), “A Statistical Demand Function for imports in South Korea”, Journal of Economic Development, June, ss. 147-164.
  • Aydın, M. F. vd. (2004), “Export Supply and Import Demand Models for the Turkish Economy”, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, No: 04/09.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. (1985), “Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, August, ss. 500-504.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. (1986), “Determinants of International Trade Flows: the Case of Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 20, ss. 107–123.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. (1991), “Is There a Long-run Relation Between the Trade Balance and the Real Effective Exchange Rate of LDCs?”, Economic Letters, August, ss. 403-407.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. ve Kantiong, T. (2001), “Bileteral J-Curve Between Thailand and Her Trading Partner”, Journal of Economic Development, 26 (2), ss. 107-117.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. ve Niroomand F. (1998), “Long-Run Price Elasticities and the Marshall–Lerner Condition Revisited”, Economics Letters, 61, ss. 101–109.
  • Brahmasrene, Tve Jiranyakul, K. (2002) “Exploring Real Exchange Rate Effects On Trade Balances In Thailand”, Managerial Finance, Vol. 28, No. 11, ss. 16-27.
  • Demirden, T and Pastine, I. (1995), “Flexible Exchange Rate and the J-Curve.”, Economic Letters, 48 (3-4), ss. 373-377.
  • Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song, Inc.
  • Enders, W. (1996), Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song Inc.
  • Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, ss. 251- 276.
  • Gomez, D. M. ve Ude, G. F. A. (2006), “Exchange Rate Policy and Trade Balance a Cointegration Analysis of the Argentine Experience Since 1962, MPRA Paper No. 151, http:// mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/ 151/
  • Gylfason, T. ve Ole, R. (1984), “Does Devaluation Improve the Current Account?”, European Economics Review, June, ss. 37-64.
  • Hacker, S. R. Ve Hatemi, A. (2003), “Is The J-Curve Effect Observable For Small North European Economies”, Open Economics Review, 14: 2, ss. 119-134.
  • Hassan, S. ve Wilbratte, B. (1997), “The Relation Between the Real Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment”, International Economic Journal, Spring, ss. 39-50
  • Jorda, C. M. ve Burguet, S.C. (1998), “Long –Run and Short-Run Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements For Major EU Conutries: Cointegratıon and Error-Correction Modeling”, Journal Of The Economic Integration, 13: 4, ss. 607-625.
  • Jung, C ve Doroodian, K. (1998), “The Persistence Of Japan’s Trade Surplus”, İnternational Economic Journal, 12: 1, ss. 25-38.
  • Khan, M. (1974), “Import and Export Demand in Developing Countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 21, ss. 678–693.
  • Khan, M. (1975), “The Structure and Behavior of Imports of Venezuela”, Review of Economics and Statistics”, 57, ss. 221–224.
  • Krugman, P ve Baklwin, R. E. (1987), “The Persistence of the U.S.Trade Deficit”, Brooking Paper on Economic Activity, Washinton, DC: Brooking Institution, ss. 1-58.
  • Lal, A.K. ve Lowinger, T.C. (2002), “Nominal Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment in South Asia Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 13, ss. 371-383.
  • Mah, J.S. (1993), “Structural Change in Import Demand Behavior: the Korean Experience”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 15, ss. 223–227.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2004), “New Zealand’s Trade Balance: Evidence of The J- CurveandGrangerCausality”,Applied EconomicsLetters,11:6s.351-354
  • Narayan, P. K. ve Narayan, S. (204) “The J-Curve: Evidence From Fiji”, Internatıonal Review Of Applied Economics”, 18: 3, ss. 369-380.
  • Onafowara, O. (2003), “Exchange Rate And The Trade Balance In East Asia: Is There a J-Curve?”, Economics Bulletin, 5: 18, ss. 1-13.
  • Rose, A. K. (1990), “Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance: Some Evidence From Developing Countries”, Economic Letters, 3 (34), ss. 271-275.
  • Rose, A. K. ve Yellen, J. L. (1989), “Is There a J-Curve?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, ss. 53-68.
  • Sing, T. (2002), “India’s Trade Balance: The Role of Income and Exchange Rates”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 24, ss. 437-452.
  • Sivri U. ve Usta, C. (2001), “Reel Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişki”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 19 (4), ss. 1-9.
  • Wilson, P. ve Tat, K. C. (2001), “Echange Rates and the Trade Balance: the Case of Singapore 1970 to 1996”, Journal of Asian Economics, 12, ss. 47-63. Son Notlar
  • * Bu konuda bak. Arize (1987, 1990, 1991, 1994), Gylfason and Risager (1984), Bahmani- Oskooee (1985).
  • i Literatürde, ticaret dengesi genellikle ihracatın ithalat oranı ya da tersi biçiminde alınmaktadır.
  • Bkz. Arize (1994), Oskooee (2001), Onafowora, (2003).
  • iie serisinin white-noise olmadığı durumda, augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi kullanılabilir.
  • te serisinin white-noise olmadığı durumda, augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi kullanılabilir.
  • iii Shirvani ve Wilbrate (1997), Oskooee ve Brooks (1999), Arize (1994), Gomez ve Ude (2006),
  • Rose ve Yellen (1989) ve Rose (1991).
  • iv Literatürde, ticaret dengesi genellikle ihracatın ithalat oranı ya da tersi biçiminde alınmaktadır.
  • Bkz. Arize (1994), Oskooee (2001), Onafowora, (2003).
Year 2008, Volume: 22 Issue: 2, 33 - 43, 27.11.2010

Abstract

References

  • Arize, A. C. (1987), “The Supply and Demand for Imports and Exports in a Simultaneous Model”, Applied Economics, September, ss. 1233-1247.
  • Arize, A. C. (1990), “An Econometric Investigation of Export Behavior in Seven Developing Countries”, Applied Economics. July, ss. 891-904,
  • Arize, A. C. (1991), “Specification Test of the Aggregate Import Demand in Developing Countries”, International Economic Journal, Spring, ss.79-89.
  • Arize, A. C. (1994), “Cointegration Test of A long-Run Relation Between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance”, International Economic Journal, 8(3), ss. 1-9.
  • Arize, A. C. ve Spalding, J. B. (1991), “A Statistical Demand Function for imports in South Korea”, Journal of Economic Development, June, ss. 147-164.
  • Aydın, M. F. vd. (2004), “Export Supply and Import Demand Models for the Turkish Economy”, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, No: 04/09.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. (1985), “Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, August, ss. 500-504.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. (1986), “Determinants of International Trade Flows: the Case of Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 20, ss. 107–123.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. (1991), “Is There a Long-run Relation Between the Trade Balance and the Real Effective Exchange Rate of LDCs?”, Economic Letters, August, ss. 403-407.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. ve Kantiong, T. (2001), “Bileteral J-Curve Between Thailand and Her Trading Partner”, Journal of Economic Development, 26 (2), ss. 107-117.
  • Bahmani Oskooee, M. ve Niroomand F. (1998), “Long-Run Price Elasticities and the Marshall–Lerner Condition Revisited”, Economics Letters, 61, ss. 101–109.
  • Brahmasrene, Tve Jiranyakul, K. (2002) “Exploring Real Exchange Rate Effects On Trade Balances In Thailand”, Managerial Finance, Vol. 28, No. 11, ss. 16-27.
  • Demirden, T and Pastine, I. (1995), “Flexible Exchange Rate and the J-Curve.”, Economic Letters, 48 (3-4), ss. 373-377.
  • Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song, Inc.
  • Enders, W. (1996), Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song Inc.
  • Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, ss. 251- 276.
  • Gomez, D. M. ve Ude, G. F. A. (2006), “Exchange Rate Policy and Trade Balance a Cointegration Analysis of the Argentine Experience Since 1962, MPRA Paper No. 151, http:// mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/ 151/
  • Gylfason, T. ve Ole, R. (1984), “Does Devaluation Improve the Current Account?”, European Economics Review, June, ss. 37-64.
  • Hacker, S. R. Ve Hatemi, A. (2003), “Is The J-Curve Effect Observable For Small North European Economies”, Open Economics Review, 14: 2, ss. 119-134.
  • Hassan, S. ve Wilbratte, B. (1997), “The Relation Between the Real Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment”, International Economic Journal, Spring, ss. 39-50
  • Jorda, C. M. ve Burguet, S.C. (1998), “Long –Run and Short-Run Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements For Major EU Conutries: Cointegratıon and Error-Correction Modeling”, Journal Of The Economic Integration, 13: 4, ss. 607-625.
  • Jung, C ve Doroodian, K. (1998), “The Persistence Of Japan’s Trade Surplus”, İnternational Economic Journal, 12: 1, ss. 25-38.
  • Khan, M. (1974), “Import and Export Demand in Developing Countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 21, ss. 678–693.
  • Khan, M. (1975), “The Structure and Behavior of Imports of Venezuela”, Review of Economics and Statistics”, 57, ss. 221–224.
  • Krugman, P ve Baklwin, R. E. (1987), “The Persistence of the U.S.Trade Deficit”, Brooking Paper on Economic Activity, Washinton, DC: Brooking Institution, ss. 1-58.
  • Lal, A.K. ve Lowinger, T.C. (2002), “Nominal Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment in South Asia Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 13, ss. 371-383.
  • Mah, J.S. (1993), “Structural Change in Import Demand Behavior: the Korean Experience”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 15, ss. 223–227.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2004), “New Zealand’s Trade Balance: Evidence of The J- CurveandGrangerCausality”,Applied EconomicsLetters,11:6s.351-354
  • Narayan, P. K. ve Narayan, S. (204) “The J-Curve: Evidence From Fiji”, Internatıonal Review Of Applied Economics”, 18: 3, ss. 369-380.
  • Onafowara, O. (2003), “Exchange Rate And The Trade Balance In East Asia: Is There a J-Curve?”, Economics Bulletin, 5: 18, ss. 1-13.
  • Rose, A. K. (1990), “Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance: Some Evidence From Developing Countries”, Economic Letters, 3 (34), ss. 271-275.
  • Rose, A. K. ve Yellen, J. L. (1989), “Is There a J-Curve?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, ss. 53-68.
  • Sing, T. (2002), “India’s Trade Balance: The Role of Income and Exchange Rates”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 24, ss. 437-452.
  • Sivri U. ve Usta, C. (2001), “Reel Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişki”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 19 (4), ss. 1-9.
  • Wilson, P. ve Tat, K. C. (2001), “Echange Rates and the Trade Balance: the Case of Singapore 1970 to 1996”, Journal of Asian Economics, 12, ss. 47-63. Son Notlar
  • * Bu konuda bak. Arize (1987, 1990, 1991, 1994), Gylfason and Risager (1984), Bahmani- Oskooee (1985).
  • i Literatürde, ticaret dengesi genellikle ihracatın ithalat oranı ya da tersi biçiminde alınmaktadır.
  • Bkz. Arize (1994), Oskooee (2001), Onafowora, (2003).
  • iie serisinin white-noise olmadığı durumda, augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi kullanılabilir.
  • te serisinin white-noise olmadığı durumda, augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi kullanılabilir.
  • iii Shirvani ve Wilbrate (1997), Oskooee ve Brooks (1999), Arize (1994), Gomez ve Ude (2006),
  • Rose ve Yellen (1989) ve Rose (1991).
  • iv Literatürde, ticaret dengesi genellikle ihracatın ithalat oranı ya da tersi biçiminde alınmaktadır.
  • Bkz. Arize (1994), Oskooee (2001), Onafowora, (2003).
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language tr;en
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Osman Peker This is me

Publication Date November 27, 2010
Published in Issue Year 2008 Volume: 22 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Peker, O. (2010). REEL DÖVİZ KURUNUN TİCARET DENGESİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2), 33-43.

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