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İKİZ AÇIKLAR HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: TEORİ VE UYGULAMA

Year 2012, Volume: 26 Issue: 3-4, 239 - 258, 05.03.2012

Abstract

Bu çalışmada literatürde büyük bir tartışma konusu teşkil eden
bütçe açığı ile cari işlemler açığı arasındaki ilişki Geleneksel ve Ricardocu
Yaklaşımlar açısından ele alınmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada bütçe açığı ile cari
işlemler açığı arasındaki ilişki 2006:01-2010:12 verileri ile sınır testi, VAR
analizi ve Granger Nedensellik Testi kullanılarak uygulamalı olarak test
edilmiştir. Çalışmada cari işlemler açığının dış ticaret açığına eşit olduğu
varsayılmıştır. Sınır testi yaklaşımına göre uzun dönemde söz konusu iki açık
arasında bir ilişki olmadığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuç Ricardocu
yaklaşım ile uyumludur. Kısa dönemli dinamiklerin ortaya konulması için
yapılan VAR analizi sonuçlarına göre, bütçe açığı ve cari işlemler açığı arasında
iki yönlü bir ilişki vardır.

References

  • Abell, J.D. (1990), “Twin Deficits During the 1980: An Emprical Investigation”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 12, ss.81 96.
  • Aksu, H. ve Başar S. (2009), “Türkiye için İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi'nin Tahmini: Bir Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 64(4), ss.1 14.
  • Alkswani, M.A. (2000), “The Twin Deficit Phenomenon in Petroleum Economy: Evidence from Saudi Arabia”, Seventh Annual Conference, Economic Research Forum, Amman, ss.1 25.
  • Akbostancı, E. ve Tunç, G.İ. (2002), “Turkish Twin Deficits: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance”, http://www.econ.metu.edu.tr/erc/2001series/0106.pdf, (21.08.2004).
  • Anoruo, E. ve Ramchander, S. (1998), “Current Account and Fiscal Deficits: Evidence from Developing Economies of Asia”, Journal and Asian Economics, 9(3), ss.487 501.
  • Asteriou, D. ve Hall, S.G. (2007), Applied Econometrics, Palgrave Macmillan. New York.
  • Ata, A. Y. ve Yücel F. (2003), “Eş-Bütünleşme ve Nedensellik Testleri Altında İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Çukurova Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 12(12), ss.97 110.
  • Bachman, D.D. (1992), “Why is the Current Account Deficit so Large? Evidence From Vector Autoregressions”, Southern Economic Journal, 59, ss.232 240.
  • Barro, R.J. (1989), “The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), ss.37 54.
  • Bernheim, B.D. (1988), “Budget Deficit and the Balance of Trade” in Tax Policy and the Economy edited by Summers, Lawrence H., MIT Press: Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research, ss.1 31.
  • Bilgili, E. ve Bilgili F. (1998), “Bütçe Açıklarının Cari işlem Dengesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Teori ve Uygulama”, İktisat İşletme-Finans Dergisi, 146. Sayı Eki, ss.4 16.
  • Darrat, A.F. (1988), “Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?”, Southern Economic Journal, 54, ss.879 887.
  • Dibooglu, S. (1997), “Accounting for US Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Investigation”, Applied Economics, 29, ss.787 793.
  • Enders, W. ve Lee, B-S (1990), “Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 72(3), ss.373 381.
  • Erdinç, Z. (2008), “İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye’de 1950-2005 Yılları Arasında Eşbütünleşme Analizi ve Granger Nedensellik Testi İle İncelenmesi”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), ss.209 222.
  • Erlat, H. (1983), “Nedensellik Sınamaları Üzerine”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 10(1), ss.65 96.
  • Ghebreselassie, Yt ve BURGER, P. (2003), “Twin Deficit Problems in Developing Countries: The Case of Eritrea”, Economics Working Paper Series Department of Economics, UFS, WP04/03, ss.1 22.
  • Iram, M.P.S., Shadid, A., Mahpara, S. ve Fazli, R. (2011), “Old Wine in New Bottles: Testing the Keynesian Preposition of Twin Deficit in Case of Pakistan”, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(5), ss.209 213.
  • Kim, S. ve Roubini, N. (2004), “Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account and Real Exchange Rate in the US”, http://econ.korce.ac.kr/prof/sykim/files/fiscalus9.pdf, (06.12.2004).
  • Kulkarni, K.G. ve Erickson, E.L. (2001), “Twin Deficit Revisited: Evidence from India, Pakistan and Mexico”, Journal of Applied Business Research, 17(2), ss.87 100.
  • Latif-Zaman, N. ve Dacosta, M. N. (1990), “The Budget Deficit and the Trade Deficit: Insight into This Relationship”, Eastern Economic Journal, 16(4), ss.349 354.
  • Marinheiro, C.F. (2008), “Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle in Egypt”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, ss.1041 1056.
  • Mukhtar, T., Zakaria, M. ve Ahmed, M. (2007), “An Emprical Investigtion for The Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Pakistan”, Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28, ss.63 80.
  • Narayan P.K. (2005), “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37, ss.1979 1990.
  • Pattichis, C. (2004), “Budget and Trade Deficits in Lebanon”, Applied Economics Letters, 11, ss.105 108.
  • Peseran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”. iç. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the Twentieth Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Ed. S. Strom, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk, (20.02.2009).
  • Peseran, M. H., Shin, Y ve Smith, R. J. (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, ss.289 326.
  • Phillips, P. ve Perron, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75, ss.335 346.
  • Ratha, A. (2011), “Twin Deficits or Distant Cousins? Evidence from India”. Economics Faculty Working Papers. Paper 5, http://repository.stcloudstate.edu/econ_wps/5, (24.11.2011).
  • Rosenweig, J.A. ve Tallman, E.W. (1991), “Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are The Deficits Really Twins?”, Economic Inquiry, 31, ss.580 594.
  • Tarı, R. (2010), Ekonometri, Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • Vamvoukas, G.A. (1998), “The Relationship Between Budget Deficits and Money Demand: Evidence From a Small Economy”, Applied Economics, 30, ss.1 18.
  • Vamvoukas, G.A. (1999), “The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence From Greece”, Applied Economics, 31, ss.1093 1100.
  • Vyshnyak, O. (2000), “Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Case of Ukraine”, http://eerc.kiev.ua/research/matheses/2000/pdf/Vyshnyak.pdf, (20.04.2005).
  • Zamanzadeh, A. ve Mehrara, M. (2011), “Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Iran”, Interdisciplinary Journal of Research in Business, 1(9), ss. 7-11.
  • Zengin, A. (2000), “İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi (Türkiye Uygulaması)”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 2, ss.37 67.
  • Zietz, J. ve Pemberton, D.K. (1990), “The US Budget and Trade Deficits: A Simultaneous Equation Model”, Southern Economic Journal, 57, ss.23 34.
Year 2012, Volume: 26 Issue: 3-4, 239 - 258, 05.03.2012

Abstract

References

  • Abell, J.D. (1990), “Twin Deficits During the 1980: An Emprical Investigation”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 12, ss.81 96.
  • Aksu, H. ve Başar S. (2009), “Türkiye için İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi'nin Tahmini: Bir Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 64(4), ss.1 14.
  • Alkswani, M.A. (2000), “The Twin Deficit Phenomenon in Petroleum Economy: Evidence from Saudi Arabia”, Seventh Annual Conference, Economic Research Forum, Amman, ss.1 25.
  • Akbostancı, E. ve Tunç, G.İ. (2002), “Turkish Twin Deficits: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance”, http://www.econ.metu.edu.tr/erc/2001series/0106.pdf, (21.08.2004).
  • Anoruo, E. ve Ramchander, S. (1998), “Current Account and Fiscal Deficits: Evidence from Developing Economies of Asia”, Journal and Asian Economics, 9(3), ss.487 501.
  • Asteriou, D. ve Hall, S.G. (2007), Applied Econometrics, Palgrave Macmillan. New York.
  • Ata, A. Y. ve Yücel F. (2003), “Eş-Bütünleşme ve Nedensellik Testleri Altında İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Çukurova Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 12(12), ss.97 110.
  • Bachman, D.D. (1992), “Why is the Current Account Deficit so Large? Evidence From Vector Autoregressions”, Southern Economic Journal, 59, ss.232 240.
  • Barro, R.J. (1989), “The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), ss.37 54.
  • Bernheim, B.D. (1988), “Budget Deficit and the Balance of Trade” in Tax Policy and the Economy edited by Summers, Lawrence H., MIT Press: Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research, ss.1 31.
  • Bilgili, E. ve Bilgili F. (1998), “Bütçe Açıklarının Cari işlem Dengesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Teori ve Uygulama”, İktisat İşletme-Finans Dergisi, 146. Sayı Eki, ss.4 16.
  • Darrat, A.F. (1988), “Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?”, Southern Economic Journal, 54, ss.879 887.
  • Dibooglu, S. (1997), “Accounting for US Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Investigation”, Applied Economics, 29, ss.787 793.
  • Enders, W. ve Lee, B-S (1990), “Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 72(3), ss.373 381.
  • Erdinç, Z. (2008), “İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye’de 1950-2005 Yılları Arasında Eşbütünleşme Analizi ve Granger Nedensellik Testi İle İncelenmesi”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), ss.209 222.
  • Erlat, H. (1983), “Nedensellik Sınamaları Üzerine”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 10(1), ss.65 96.
  • Ghebreselassie, Yt ve BURGER, P. (2003), “Twin Deficit Problems in Developing Countries: The Case of Eritrea”, Economics Working Paper Series Department of Economics, UFS, WP04/03, ss.1 22.
  • Iram, M.P.S., Shadid, A., Mahpara, S. ve Fazli, R. (2011), “Old Wine in New Bottles: Testing the Keynesian Preposition of Twin Deficit in Case of Pakistan”, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(5), ss.209 213.
  • Kim, S. ve Roubini, N. (2004), “Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account and Real Exchange Rate in the US”, http://econ.korce.ac.kr/prof/sykim/files/fiscalus9.pdf, (06.12.2004).
  • Kulkarni, K.G. ve Erickson, E.L. (2001), “Twin Deficit Revisited: Evidence from India, Pakistan and Mexico”, Journal of Applied Business Research, 17(2), ss.87 100.
  • Latif-Zaman, N. ve Dacosta, M. N. (1990), “The Budget Deficit and the Trade Deficit: Insight into This Relationship”, Eastern Economic Journal, 16(4), ss.349 354.
  • Marinheiro, C.F. (2008), “Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle in Egypt”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, ss.1041 1056.
  • Mukhtar, T., Zakaria, M. ve Ahmed, M. (2007), “An Emprical Investigtion for The Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Pakistan”, Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28, ss.63 80.
  • Narayan P.K. (2005), “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37, ss.1979 1990.
  • Pattichis, C. (2004), “Budget and Trade Deficits in Lebanon”, Applied Economics Letters, 11, ss.105 108.
  • Peseran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”. iç. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the Twentieth Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Ed. S. Strom, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk, (20.02.2009).
  • Peseran, M. H., Shin, Y ve Smith, R. J. (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, ss.289 326.
  • Phillips, P. ve Perron, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75, ss.335 346.
  • Ratha, A. (2011), “Twin Deficits or Distant Cousins? Evidence from India”. Economics Faculty Working Papers. Paper 5, http://repository.stcloudstate.edu/econ_wps/5, (24.11.2011).
  • Rosenweig, J.A. ve Tallman, E.W. (1991), “Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are The Deficits Really Twins?”, Economic Inquiry, 31, ss.580 594.
  • Tarı, R. (2010), Ekonometri, Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • Vamvoukas, G.A. (1998), “The Relationship Between Budget Deficits and Money Demand: Evidence From a Small Economy”, Applied Economics, 30, ss.1 18.
  • Vamvoukas, G.A. (1999), “The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence From Greece”, Applied Economics, 31, ss.1093 1100.
  • Vyshnyak, O. (2000), “Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Case of Ukraine”, http://eerc.kiev.ua/research/matheses/2000/pdf/Vyshnyak.pdf, (20.04.2005).
  • Zamanzadeh, A. ve Mehrara, M. (2011), “Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Iran”, Interdisciplinary Journal of Research in Business, 1(9), ss. 7-11.
  • Zengin, A. (2000), “İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi (Türkiye Uygulaması)”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 2, ss.37 67.
  • Zietz, J. ve Pemberton, D.K. (1990), “The US Budget and Trade Deficits: A Simultaneous Equation Model”, Southern Economic Journal, 57, ss.23 34.
There are 37 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Emine Kılavuz This is me

Yasemin Dumrul

Publication Date March 5, 2012
Published in Issue Year 2012 Volume: 26 Issue: 3-4

Cite

APA Kılavuz, E., & Dumrul, Y. (2012). İKİZ AÇIKLAR HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: TEORİ VE UYGULAMA. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3-4), 239-258.

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