BELİRSİZLİK KAVRAMI, BELİRSİZLİK ÖLÇÜTLERİ VE BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Year 2020, Volume: 34 Issue: 1, 21 - 38, 25.01.2020

Gözde Gürgün

https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.428508

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu
çalışmada iktisatta belirsizlik kavramı üzerinde durulmuş, 2008/2009 küresel finansal
krizi sonrası oluşturulan belirsizlik ölçütleri değerlendirilmiş ve
belirsizliğin makroekonomik etkileri incelenmiştir. Belirsizlik kavramı
Cantillon ile iktisadi içerik kazanmış, ancak geleneksel iktisat tam bilgi
varsayımı altında kurulan modeller çerçevesinde gelişmiş ve belirsizlik ihmal
edilmiştir. Knight ve Keynes 1921 yılında yazdıkları “Risk, Belirsizlik ve Kar”
ve “Olasılık Üzerine İnceleme” adlı çalışmalarında belirsizliği ölçülemez bir
kavram olarak nitelendirmiştir. Ancak, belirsizlik kavramına yönelik ilgi iktisatta
matematiksel modellerin artarak kullanımıyla birlikte 1950’lerden itibaren
azalmıştır. 2008/2009 küresel finansal krizinde belirsizlik çeşitli açılardan
ortaya çıkmış ve belirsizlik kavramına ilgi artmıştır. Kriz sonrası yapılan birçok
çalışmada farklı belirsizlik ölçütleri oluşturulmuş ve belirsizliğin ekonomiye etkileri
irdelenmiştir.

Keywords

Belirsizlik, belirsizlik ölçütleri, küresel finansal kriz

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