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Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Year 2009, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 301 - 314, 20.04.2010

Abstract

Kamu harcamaları ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi ilk defa ortaya koyan
Wagner, bu ilişkinin ekonomik büyümeden kamu harcamalarına doğru olduğuna işaret
etmiştir. Keynes ise bu ilişkinin kamu harcamalarından büyümeye doğru olduğunu ortaya
koymuştur. Wagner ve Keynes yaklaşımları çerçevesinde bu çalışmada, 1975-2005
dönemi yıllık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme
arasındaki ilişki Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile test edilmiştir. Kamu harcamaları ve büyüme
arasındaki ilişki toplam ve alt kalemler itibariyle analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda elde
edilen bulgular, alt kalemler itibariyle kamu harcamaları ile büyüme arasında bir ilişki
bulunmadığına, Wagner yaklaşımının incelenen dönem itibariyle Türkiye ekonomisi için
geçerli olmadıklarına işaret etmektedir. Toplam kamu harcamaları ise hâsıladan negatif
olarak etkilenmektedir.

References

  • Ahsan, S. M., Kwan, A. C. ve Sahni, B. S. (1996). “Public Expenditure and National In- come Causality: Further Evidence on the Role of Omitted Variables”, Southern Economic Journal, 58 (3), 623-634.
  • Ansari, M. I., Gordon, D. V. ve Akuamoah, C. (1997). “Keynes Versus Wagner: Public Expenditure and National Income for Three African Countries”, Applied Economics, 29, 543-550.
  • Arısoy, İ. (2005). “Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Har- camaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Çukurova Üni. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergi- si, Cilt: 14, Sayı: 2, 2005, s.63-80.
  • Artan, S. ve Berber, M. (2004). “Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğü ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Çoklu Ko-Entegrasyon Analizi”, Cumhuriyet Üni. İİB Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt:5, Sayı: 2, ss. 13-29.
  • Bagala, B., Dhawan, U. ve Lee, H.Y. (1999). ”Testing Wagner versus Keynes Using Disa- ggregated Public Expenditure Data For Canada”, Applied Economics, 31, 1283-1291.
  • Bird, R. M. (1970). “The Growth of Public Spending in Canada”, Canadian Tax Papers, No. 51, 5, Toronto: Canada.
  • Bird, R. M. (1971) “Wagner’s Law of Expanding State Activity”, Public Finance/Finan- ces Publiques, (26). No. 1, s. 1-26.
  • Bohl, M. T. (1996). “Some International Evidence on Wagner’s Law”, PublicFinance/ Finances Publiques, (51), No. 2, s. 185-200.
  • Chletsos, M., C. Kollias. (2001). “Testing Wagner’s Law Using Disaggregated Public Expenditure Data In The Case of Greece:1958-1993”, Applied Economics, 29, 371-377.
  • Çavuşoğlu, T. (2005). “Testing the Validity of Wagner’s Law in Turkey: The Bounds Tes- ting Approach”, Ankara Üni. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, S: 60(1), ss 73-88.
  • Demirbaş, S. (1999). “Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner’s Law: The Case of Turkey,1950-1990”University of Leicster Discussion Papers, 99/2, www.le.ac. uk/economics/research/ RePEc/lec/leecon/econ99-3.pdf
  • Engle, R.F., ve C.W.J. Granger. (1987). “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representa- tion, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-76.
  • Fosu, O.A.E. ve Magnus, F.J. (2006). “Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: An Examination of Foreign Direct Investment Trade and Growth Relationships”, American Journal of Applied Sciences, 3 (11), 2079-2085.
  • Gandhi, V. P. (1971). “Wagner’s Law of Public Expenditure: Do Recent Cross-Section Studies Confirm it?”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (26), No.1, 44-56.
  • Goffman, I. J. (1968). “On the Empirical Testing of Wagner’s law: A Technical Note”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (23), 359-364.
  • Gupta, S. (1967). “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Time Series Analysis”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (22), 423-466.
  • Halicioglu, F. (2003). “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey, 1960-2000,” Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Vol. 1: No. 2, 129-140
  • Henrekson M. (1993). “Wagner’s law-A spurious relationship”, Public Finance, 48; 406- 415.
  • Huang, C.J. (2006). “Government Expenditures In China and Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner’s Law”, Journal of Economic Development, 31(2), 139-148.
  • Işık, N. ve Alagöz, M. (2005). “Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki”, Erciyes Üni. İİB Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 24, 63-75.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54.
  • Johansen, S., and K. Juselius. (1990). “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Eco- nomics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2003). “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey, 1960-2000”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Volume 1, Issue 2, 129-140.
  • Şimşek, M.ve Kadılar, C. (2004). “Türkiye’nin İthalat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi : 1970-2002”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5, 1, 27- 34.
  • Kolluri BR, Panik MJ. Wahab, M.S. (2000). “Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from G7 countries”, Applied Economics, 32; 1059-68.
  • Landau, D. (1986). “Government and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: an Empirical Study For 1960-1980”, Economic.
  • Mohsin Md, Naidu CR, Kamaiah B. (1995). “Wagner’s hypothesis: Evidence from Indian states”. Indian Economic Journal, 43; 76-95.
  • Mann, A. J. (1980). “Wagner’s Law: An Econometric Test for Mexico, 1925-1976”, Na- tional Tax Journal, (33), 189-201.
  • Oxley, L. (1994). “Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s Law”, Scottish Journal of Po- litical Economy, (41), 286-298.
  • Payne, J. E. and B. T. Ewing. (1996). “International Evidence on Wagner’s Hypothesis: A Cointegration Analysis”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (51), No. 2, 258-274.
  • Peacock, A. ve J. Wiseman. (1961). “The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom”, Londra: George Allen and Unwin.
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (1999). “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Appro- ach to Cointegration Analysis”, in (ed) S. Storm, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, chapter 11, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge. (http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/ardl.pdf, 31/08/2007
  • Pesaran, H., Shin, Y., ve R.J. Smith. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
  • Ram, R. (1986). “Government Size and Economic Growth: a New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time Series Data”, American Economic Review, 76, 191-203.
  • Ram, R. (1987). Wagner’s hypothesis in time-series and cross-section perspectives: Evi- dence from “real” data for 115 countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, (69), 194- 204.
  • Sarı, R. (2003). “Kamu Harcamalarının Dünyada ve Türkiye’deki Gelişimi ve Türkiye’de Ulusal Gelir ile İlişkisi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 209 (Ek). 25-38
  • Sattar, Zaidi. (1993). “Public Expenditure and Economic Performance: A Comparison of Developed and Low-Income Developing Economies,” Journal of International Develop- ment, (5), No.1, 27-49.
  • Scully, Gerald W. (1989). “Size of the State, Economic Growth, and the Efficient Utiliza- tion of National Resources”, Public Choice, (63), p. 149-164.
  • Singh, B. ve Sahni, B. (1984). “Causality Between Public Expenditure and National Inco- me”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, No. 4. pp. 630-644.
  • Sinha, D. (1998). “Economic growth and government expenditure in India: A time series analysis”. International Review of Economics and Business, (45), p. 263-274.
  • Şimşek, M. (2004). “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme, 1965-2002”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18(1/2), 37-52.
  • Terzi, H. (1998). “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Kalkınma İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonomet- rik Bir İnceleme”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 142, 67-78.
  • Thornton, J. (1999). “Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Law in 19th Century Euro- pe”, Applied Economics Letters, (6), 413-416.
  • Yamak, N. ve Küçükkale, Y. (1997). “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 131, 5-14.
  • Yamak, R. ve Zengin, A. (1997). “Kalman Filtre Yöntemi ve Wagner Yasası: Türkiye Örneği, 1950-1994”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 133, 32-42.
Year 2009, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 301 - 314, 20.04.2010

Abstract

References

  • Ahsan, S. M., Kwan, A. C. ve Sahni, B. S. (1996). “Public Expenditure and National In- come Causality: Further Evidence on the Role of Omitted Variables”, Southern Economic Journal, 58 (3), 623-634.
  • Ansari, M. I., Gordon, D. V. ve Akuamoah, C. (1997). “Keynes Versus Wagner: Public Expenditure and National Income for Three African Countries”, Applied Economics, 29, 543-550.
  • Arısoy, İ. (2005). “Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Har- camaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Çukurova Üni. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergi- si, Cilt: 14, Sayı: 2, 2005, s.63-80.
  • Artan, S. ve Berber, M. (2004). “Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğü ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Çoklu Ko-Entegrasyon Analizi”, Cumhuriyet Üni. İİB Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt:5, Sayı: 2, ss. 13-29.
  • Bagala, B., Dhawan, U. ve Lee, H.Y. (1999). ”Testing Wagner versus Keynes Using Disa- ggregated Public Expenditure Data For Canada”, Applied Economics, 31, 1283-1291.
  • Bird, R. M. (1970). “The Growth of Public Spending in Canada”, Canadian Tax Papers, No. 51, 5, Toronto: Canada.
  • Bird, R. M. (1971) “Wagner’s Law of Expanding State Activity”, Public Finance/Finan- ces Publiques, (26). No. 1, s. 1-26.
  • Bohl, M. T. (1996). “Some International Evidence on Wagner’s Law”, PublicFinance/ Finances Publiques, (51), No. 2, s. 185-200.
  • Chletsos, M., C. Kollias. (2001). “Testing Wagner’s Law Using Disaggregated Public Expenditure Data In The Case of Greece:1958-1993”, Applied Economics, 29, 371-377.
  • Çavuşoğlu, T. (2005). “Testing the Validity of Wagner’s Law in Turkey: The Bounds Tes- ting Approach”, Ankara Üni. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, S: 60(1), ss 73-88.
  • Demirbaş, S. (1999). “Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner’s Law: The Case of Turkey,1950-1990”University of Leicster Discussion Papers, 99/2, www.le.ac. uk/economics/research/ RePEc/lec/leecon/econ99-3.pdf
  • Engle, R.F., ve C.W.J. Granger. (1987). “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representa- tion, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-76.
  • Fosu, O.A.E. ve Magnus, F.J. (2006). “Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: An Examination of Foreign Direct Investment Trade and Growth Relationships”, American Journal of Applied Sciences, 3 (11), 2079-2085.
  • Gandhi, V. P. (1971). “Wagner’s Law of Public Expenditure: Do Recent Cross-Section Studies Confirm it?”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (26), No.1, 44-56.
  • Goffman, I. J. (1968). “On the Empirical Testing of Wagner’s law: A Technical Note”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (23), 359-364.
  • Gupta, S. (1967). “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Time Series Analysis”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (22), 423-466.
  • Halicioglu, F. (2003). “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey, 1960-2000,” Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Vol. 1: No. 2, 129-140
  • Henrekson M. (1993). “Wagner’s law-A spurious relationship”, Public Finance, 48; 406- 415.
  • Huang, C.J. (2006). “Government Expenditures In China and Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner’s Law”, Journal of Economic Development, 31(2), 139-148.
  • Işık, N. ve Alagöz, M. (2005). “Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki”, Erciyes Üni. İİB Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 24, 63-75.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54.
  • Johansen, S., and K. Juselius. (1990). “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Eco- nomics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2003). “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey, 1960-2000”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Volume 1, Issue 2, 129-140.
  • Şimşek, M.ve Kadılar, C. (2004). “Türkiye’nin İthalat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi : 1970-2002”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5, 1, 27- 34.
  • Kolluri BR, Panik MJ. Wahab, M.S. (2000). “Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from G7 countries”, Applied Economics, 32; 1059-68.
  • Landau, D. (1986). “Government and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: an Empirical Study For 1960-1980”, Economic.
  • Mohsin Md, Naidu CR, Kamaiah B. (1995). “Wagner’s hypothesis: Evidence from Indian states”. Indian Economic Journal, 43; 76-95.
  • Mann, A. J. (1980). “Wagner’s Law: An Econometric Test for Mexico, 1925-1976”, Na- tional Tax Journal, (33), 189-201.
  • Oxley, L. (1994). “Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s Law”, Scottish Journal of Po- litical Economy, (41), 286-298.
  • Payne, J. E. and B. T. Ewing. (1996). “International Evidence on Wagner’s Hypothesis: A Cointegration Analysis”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (51), No. 2, 258-274.
  • Peacock, A. ve J. Wiseman. (1961). “The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom”, Londra: George Allen and Unwin.
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (1999). “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Appro- ach to Cointegration Analysis”, in (ed) S. Storm, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, chapter 11, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge. (http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/ardl.pdf, 31/08/2007
  • Pesaran, H., Shin, Y., ve R.J. Smith. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
  • Ram, R. (1986). “Government Size and Economic Growth: a New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time Series Data”, American Economic Review, 76, 191-203.
  • Ram, R. (1987). Wagner’s hypothesis in time-series and cross-section perspectives: Evi- dence from “real” data for 115 countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, (69), 194- 204.
  • Sarı, R. (2003). “Kamu Harcamalarının Dünyada ve Türkiye’deki Gelişimi ve Türkiye’de Ulusal Gelir ile İlişkisi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 209 (Ek). 25-38
  • Sattar, Zaidi. (1993). “Public Expenditure and Economic Performance: A Comparison of Developed and Low-Income Developing Economies,” Journal of International Develop- ment, (5), No.1, 27-49.
  • Scully, Gerald W. (1989). “Size of the State, Economic Growth, and the Efficient Utiliza- tion of National Resources”, Public Choice, (63), p. 149-164.
  • Singh, B. ve Sahni, B. (1984). “Causality Between Public Expenditure and National Inco- me”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, No. 4. pp. 630-644.
  • Sinha, D. (1998). “Economic growth and government expenditure in India: A time series analysis”. International Review of Economics and Business, (45), p. 263-274.
  • Şimşek, M. (2004). “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme, 1965-2002”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18(1/2), 37-52.
  • Terzi, H. (1998). “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Kalkınma İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonomet- rik Bir İnceleme”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 142, 67-78.
  • Thornton, J. (1999). “Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Law in 19th Century Euro- pe”, Applied Economics Letters, (6), 413-416.
  • Yamak, N. ve Küçükkale, Y. (1997). “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 131, 5-14.
  • Yamak, R. ve Zengin, A. (1997). “Kalman Filtre Yöntemi ve Wagner Yasası: Türkiye Örneği, 1950-1994”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 133, 32-42.
There are 45 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language tr; en
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Selim Başar This is me

Hayati Aksu This is me

M. Sinan Temurlenk This is me

Özgür Polat This is me

Publication Date April 20, 2010
Published in Issue Year 2009 Volume: 13 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Başar, S., Aksu, H., Temurlenk, M. S., Polat, Ö. (2010). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1), 301-314.

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