Estimation of Short and Long-run Relationship between Selected Food Prices and Macroeconomic Variables in Ghana

Year 2019, Volume: 50 Issue: 1, 92 - 105, 30.01.2019

Osman Tahidu Damba , Avni Birinci , Abdulbaki Bilgiç

https://doi.org/10.17097/ataunizfd.446309

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Lagged food prices directly cause food price
rise in Ghana and indirectly by crude oil and exchange rates. High import
prices of agricultural inputs and biofuel discovery are reasons for causality.
This paper analysed the short and long-run relationship between crude oil,
exchange rate, and selected agricultural food commodity prices in Ghana.
Johansen test was applied to lagged time periods to identify cointegration
relation and error correction for long run adjustments. Weak exogeneity was
also conducted among the cointegration variables. Shocks were transferred from
lagged prices to current in Ghana. This causes shocks and speculations in grain
markets in Ghana.

Keywords

Cointegration, Food prices, Macroeconomic variables, Vector error correction

Gana’da Seçilmiş Gıda Fiyatları İle Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Kısa ve Uzun Dönem İlişkinin Tahmini

Abstract

Gecikmeli gıda fiyatları, Gana'da mevcut gıda
fiyatlarının doğrudan yükselmesine ve dolaylı olarak da ham petrol ve döviz
kurlarındaki dalgalanmalara neden olmaktadır. Tarımsal girdilerin yüksek
ithalat fiyatları ve biyoyakıtların ortaya çıkması nedenselliğin ana
kaynaklarıdır. Bu çalışmada, Gana'daki seçilmiş bazı tarımsal ürün fiyatları
ile ham petrol, döviz kuru arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkisi analiz
edilmiştir. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ve uzun dönem hata düzeltme dengesi için
gecikmeli sürelere Johansen testi uygulanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme değişkenleri
arasında zayıf ekojenlik de varsayılmıştır. Gana'daki ekonomik ve ekonomik
olmayan şokların gecikmeli fiyatlardan şimdiki mevcut fiyat düzeylerine
aktarıldığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu durum, Gana'daki tahıl pazarlarında yeni
şoklara ve spekülasyonlara neden olmaktadır. 

Keywords

Eş bütünleşme, Gıda fiyatları, Makroekonomik değişkenler, Vektör hata düzeltme

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