The Security of the European Union After Brexit: Opportunities and Risks Within the Axis of Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America

Year 2023, , 97 - 110, 02.05.2023

Durmuş Ali Koltuk , İsmail Utku Cantürk

https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.1173206

Abstract

Since the Brexit referandum’s positive result has led the United Kingdom (UK) to leave the European Union (EU), the member states are peering towards an uncertain future in terms of European Security. The loss of an important security ally such as the United Kingdom is leading the Union into a period full of various strategic opportunities and risks. This work focuses on analysing the potential strategic partnerships the EU can establish with Turkey, the UK and the United States (US), in order to secure the Union’s security and defence needs. In this context, the main research questions of the work can be listed as such: What do the political and military dynamics brought by the Brexit mean for the future of EU’s security? Is the EU capable and self-sufficient for the future of its military security and defence? How could forming bilateral security dialogues and engaging in military cooperation with Turkey, the UK and the US benefit the EU in terms of security? According to these, the main hypotheses of this work are that the EU is not self-sufficient in maintaining its military security and defence, and that it is critical for the EU’s security to establish deepened bilateral security dialogues with the three actors mentioned above. To defend these hypotheses, the scope of the analyses and discussions in this work encompasses the current state of EU’s bilateral relations with Turkey, the UK and the US, future projections and EU’s self-defence capacity.

Keywords

Brexit, European Union, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America, Security.

Brexit Sonrası Avrupa Birliği’nin Güvenliği: Türkiye, Birleşik Krallık ve ABD Ekseninde Doğacak Fırsatlar ve Riskler

Abstract

Birleşik Krallık, 1 Şubat 2020’de yürürlüğe giren Çekilme Anlaşması ile resmen Avrupa Birliği’nden (AB) ayrılmıştır. Brexit sonucunda önemli bir askeri müttefikini kaybeden AB, güvenliğinde birçok farklı değişkenin etkin rol oynayabileceği belirsiz bir geleceğe doğru ilerlemektedir. Bu belirsiz gelecek içerisinde birçok önemli fırsat ve risk bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Brexit sonrası dönemde, AB’nin dış güvenliği ve savunmasının sağlanmasında Türkiye, Birleşik Krallık ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin (ABD) önemini tartışmaktadır. Çalışmanın temel araştırma soruları şu şekilde sıralanabilir: Brexit’in getirdiği siyasi ve askeri dinamikler, AB güvenliğinin geleceği için ne ifade etmektedir? AB askeri güvenlik ve savunmasının geleceği için kendine yetebilir bir aktör müdür? Türkiye, Birleşik Krallık ve ABD ile kurulacak ikili güvenlik diyalogları ve askeri işbirlikleri, AB güvenliğinin sağlanmasına yönelik nasıl katkılar sunabilecektir? Bu kapsamda çalışmanın temel hipotezleri, AB’nin kısa ve orta vadede askeri güvenliğini ve savunmasını sağlamada kendine yetebilecek bir aktör olmadığı ve söz konusu üç aktör ile NATO ekseninde derinleştirilebilecek ikili güvenlik diyaloglarının AB güvenliğinin geleceği için kritik olduğudur. Söz konusu hipotezleri savunmak için AB’nin Türkiye, Birleşik Krallık ve ABD ile ikili ilişkilerindeki mevcut durum, gelecek projeksiyonları ve AB’nin kendi kendini savunabilme kapasitesi, çalışmada gerçekleştirilen analiz ve tartışmaların kapsamını oluşturmaktadır.

Keywords

Brexit, Avrupa Birliği, Türkiye, Birleşik Krallık, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Güvenlik.

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