Türkiye’de Maliye Politikasının Döngüselliği: Döngüsel Olarak Düzeltilmiş Bütçe Dengesi Yaklaşımı

Year 2025, Volume: 25 Issue: 2 , 175 - 187 , 17.11.2025

Gözde Eş Polat

https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.1714775

https://izlik.org/JA86LW53AD

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de uygulanan maliye politikalarının döngüsel olup olmadığı sorusuna yanıt aranmıştır. Bu amaçla, 1999–2023 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisine özgü Döngüsel Olarak Düzeltilmiş Bütçe Dengesi verisi ilk kez hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen bu veri, hem bütçe dengesinin döngüsel etkilerden arındırılmış yapısını ortaya koymakta hem de ihtiyari maliye politikalarının bütçe üzerindeki etkilerini daha net bir şekilde analiz etmeye olanak sağlamaktadır. Çalışmada ARDL modeli kullanılarak elde edilen ampirik bulgular, ilgili dönemde Türkiye’de uygulanan maliye politikalarının ekonomik büyüme dönemlerinde canlanmayı, daralma dönemlerinde ise krizi daha da derinleştirecek şekilde ekonomik döngülerle birlikte hareket ederek döngüsel özellik gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Literatürde döngüsel politikaların ekonomik dalgalanmaların etkisini daha da artırdığı kabul görmekte bu yüzden karşı döngüsel politikaların uygulanması gerekliliğinin altı çizilmekte, karşı döngüsel politikalar daha etkin bulunmaktadır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular, maliye politikalarının sürdürülebilirliğini değerlendirirken döngüsel etkilerden arındırılmış göstergelerin kullanımının önemini vurgulamaktadır. Bu tür göstergeler, ekonomik dalgalanmaların yarattığı bozulmaları ortadan kaldırarak, maliye politikalarının performansını daha doğru bir şekilde yansıtmaktadır.

Keywords

Maliye Politkası , İhtiyari Maliye Politikası , Otomatik Stabilizatörler , Döngüsel Olarak Düzeltilmiş Bütçe Dengesi , Mali Sürdürülebilirlik

The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Türkiye: A Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance Approach

https://izlik.org/JA86LW53AD

Abstract

This study investigates whether the fiscal policies implemented in Türkiye have exhibited cyclical behavior. To this end, the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance (CAB) for the Turkish economy has been computed for the first time for the period 1999–2023. This newly constructed dataset not only reveals the structure of the budget balance free from cyclical influences but also enables a clearer analysis of the impact of discretionary fiscal policies on the budget. Empirical findings obtained through the ARDL model indicate that fiscal policies implemented in Türkiye during the examined period moved in line with economic cycles—stimulating growth during expansionary periods and deepening downturns during recessions—thus displaying procyclical characteristics. The literature widely acknowledges that such procyclical policies tend to amplify economic fluctuations, thereby highlighting the need for implementing countercyclical policies, which are generally considered more effective in stabilizing the economy. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of using cyclically adjusted indicators when evaluating the sustainability of fiscal policy. These indicators eliminate distortions caused by economic fluctuations and thus provide a more accurate assessment of fiscal policy performance.

Keywords

Fiscal Policy , Discretionary Fiscal Policy , Automatic Stabilizers , Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance , Fiscal Sustainability

References

• Alesina, A., & Tabellini, G. (2005). Why is fiscal policy often procyclical? NBER Working Paper No. 11600. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w11600
• Bohn, H. (1998). The behavior of U.S. public debt and deficits. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 949-963. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355398555793.
• Costantini, O. (2015). The cyclically adjusted budget: History and exegesis of a fateful estimate (Working Paper No. 24). Institute for New Economic Thinking. https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/research-papers/the-cyclically-adjusted-budget-history-and-exegesis-of-a-fateful-estimate
• Çebi, C., & Özlale, Ü. (2012). Türkiye’de yapısal bütçe dengesi ve mali duruş. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 27(315), 9-34.
• Fatás, A. (2019). Fiscal policy, potential output, and the shifting goalposts. IMF Economic Review, 67(3), 684–702. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-019-00087-z
• Gavin, M., & Perotti, R. (1997). Fiscal policy in Latin America. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 12, 11-71. https://doi.org/10.1086/654320
• Girouard, N., & André, C. (2005). Measuring cyclically-adjusted budget balances for OECD countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 434. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/787626008442.
• Havik, K., Mc Morrow, K., Orlandi, F., Planas, C., Raciborski, R., Roeger, W., Rossi, A., Thum-Thysen, A., & Vandermeulen, V. (2014). The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates & output gaps (European Economy - Economic Papers No. 535). Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2014/ecp535_en.htm
• Ilzetzki, E., & Végh, C. A. (2008). Procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries: Truth or fiction? NBER Working Paper No. 14191. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w14191
• International Monetary Fund. (2010). Defining fiscal space (Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Policy Paper). https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2010/022410.pdf
• Kaminsky, G. L., Reinhart, C. M., & Végh, C. A. (2004). When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies. NBER Working Paper No. 10780. https://doi.org/10.3386/w10780
• Kiss, G. P., & Vadas, G. (2007). Filling the gap – An international comparison of the cyclical adjustment of budget balances. MNB Working Papers, 2007/05. Magyar Nemzeti Bank.
• Lane, P. R. (1998). Irish fiscal policy under EMU. Irish Banking Review, Winter, 2-10.
• Larch, M., & Turrini, A. (2009). The cyclically-adjusted budget balance in EU fiscal policymaking: A love at first sight turned into a mature relationship. European Economy - Economic Papers 374. European Commission.
• Lundberg, E. (1985). The rise and fall of the Swedish model. Journal of Economic Literature, 23(1), 1-36.
• Manasse, P. (2006). Deficit limits, budget rules and fiscal adjustment: A theoretical and empirical investigation. IMF Working Paper, 06/120. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451863700.001.
• Mourre, G., Isbasoiu, G.-M., Paternoster, D., & Salto, M. (2013). The cyclically-adjusted budget balance used in the EU fiscal framework: An update (European Economy Economic Papers No. 478). Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2013/ecp478_en.htm
• Mourre, G., Astarita, C., & Princen, S. (2014). Adjusting the budget balance for the business cycle: The EU methodology (European Economy Economic Papers No. 536). Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2014/ecp536_en.htm
• Serin, Ş. C., & Ünlükaplan, İ. (2022). Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 264-287. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380.
• Talvi, E., & Végh, C. A. (2005). Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 78(1), 156-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.07.002
• Turan, T. (2013). Türkiye'de maliye politikası konjonktür yanlısı mı? Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(2), 123-140.
• Turan, T., & Telatar, E. (2013). Türkiye için sabit ve zaman değişken katsayılı ampirik mali kural tahminleri. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31(1), 225-248. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.103663
• Yüksel, C. (2013). Yapısalcı İktisat ve Mali Uyum (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.