The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy

Abstract

Since it has complicated and prominent interrelations with another macro and microeconomic issues, determination of the causes of high level of inflation ranks almost first among the major goals of economic policy. According to the Triangle Model that was recently developed by Gordon (1997), inflation stems from three dynamics called inertia, demand and supply. On the other hand, the Monetarists and the Structuralists argue that inflation is caused by excessive money supply and cost/push factors, respectively. In this context, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of import volume on domestic inflation rate in the Turkish economy for the period 1961-2017 by utilizing a proper cointegration technique. Findings illustrated that inflation in Turkey basically stems from monetary issues and it is import driven, as well. Thus, policy makers had better take this bilateral structure into account while dealing with general price level instabilities in the Turkish economy.

Keywords

• Inflation,Import,ARDL,Turkish economy

İthalatın enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi için bir ARDL analizi

Abstract

Diğer makro ve mikroekonomik konularla karmaşık ve önemli ilişkilere sahip olduğundan, yüksek enflasyon düzeyinin sebeplerinin belirlenmesi ekonomi politikasının ana hedefleri arasında neredeyse ilk sırada yer almaktadır. Son dönemde Gordon (1997) tarafından geliştirilmiş olan Üçgen Modeline göre enflasyon atalet, talep ve arz adı verilen üç dinamikten kaynaklanmaktadır. Diğer taraftan Paracılar ve Yapısalcılar enflasyonun nedeninin sırasıyla aşırı para arzı ve maliyet arttırıcı faktörler olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın amacı, uygun bir eşbütünleşme analizi kullanarak, Türkiye ekonomisinde 1961-2017 döneminde ithalat hacminin yurtiçi enflasyon oranı üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bulgular, Türkiye'de enflasyonun temelde parasal gelişmelerden kaynaklandığını ve aynı zamanda ithalat tarafından da yönlendirildiğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, politika yapıcıların Türkiye’de genel fiyat düzeyi istikrarsızlıkları ile ilgilenirken bu ikili yapıyı dikkate almaları yararlı olacaktır.

Keywords

• Enflasyon,İthalat,ARDL,Türkiye Ekonomisi

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