Year 2019, Volume 19 , Issue 1, Pages 30 - 53 2019-05-01

Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy
Belirsizliğin Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkilerinin Tahmin Edilmesi

Gözde GÜRGÜN [1]

In this paper, an uncertainty measure for Turkey is developed through principal component analysis based on a number of uncertainty proxies from three main financial markets and the Expectations Survey. Then, using this measure, a vector autoregression model is constructed to estimate the effects of uncertainty shocks on the Turkish economy. The results present evidence that uncertainty shocks are associated with a fall in industrial production, worsening consumer confidence, and rises in unemployment, inflation and credit interest rates. Uncertainty shocks seem similar to supply shocks, which cause economic activity to fall and inflation to rise.

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için temel bileşen analizi yöntemi aracılığıyla, üç ana finansal piyasadan ve Belirsizlik Anketi’nden belirsizliği temsil eden bir dizi değişken kullanılarak bir belirsizlik ölçütü oluşturulmuştur. Ardından, bu ölçütü kullanılarak, belirsizlik şoklarının Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerini tahmin etmek için bir vektör otoregresyon modeli kurulmuştur. Sonuçlar, belirsizlik şoklarının sanayi üretimdeki düşüş, tüketici güveninde bozulma ve işsizlik, enflasyon ve kredi faiz oranlarındaki artış ile ilişkili olduğuna dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Belirsizlik şoklarının etkileri, ekonomik aktivitede düşüşe enflasyonda ise yükselişe neden olan arz şoklarına benzer görünmektedir.

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Primary Language en
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles

Orcid: 0000-0001-8844-1430
Author: Gözde GÜRGÜN


Application Date : July 18, 2018
Acceptance Date : January 20, 2019
Publication Date : May 1, 2019

Bibtex @research article { auiibfd559372, journal = {Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi}, issn = {1302-9975}, eissn = {2667-7229}, address = {AKDENİZ ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ DEKANI DUMLUPINAR CAD. ANTALYA}, publisher = {Akdeniz University}, year = {2019}, volume = {19}, pages = {30 - 53}, doi = {10.25294/auiibfd.559372}, title = {Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy}, key = {cite}, author = {Gürgün, Gözde} }
APA Gürgün, G . (2019). Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy . Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi , 19 (1) , 30-53 . DOI: 10.25294/auiibfd.559372
MLA Gürgün, G . "Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy" . Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 19 (2019 ): 30-53 <>
Chicago Gürgün, G . "Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy". Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 19 (2019 ): 30-53
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy AU - Gözde Gürgün Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.25294/auiibfd.559372 DO - 10.25294/auiibfd.559372 T2 - Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 30 EP - 53 VL - 19 IS - 1 SN - 1302-9975-2667-7229 M3 - doi: 10.25294/auiibfd.559372 UR - Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy %A Gözde Gürgün %T Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy %D 2019 %J Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi %P 1302-9975-2667-7229 %V 19 %N 1 %R doi: 10.25294/auiibfd.559372 %U 10.25294/auiibfd.559372
ISNAD Gürgün, Gözde . "Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy". Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 19 / 1 (May 2019): 30-53 .
AMA Gürgün G . Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. 2019; 19(1): 30-53.
Vancouver Gürgün G . Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. 2019; 19(1): 30-53.
IEEE G. Gürgün , "Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy", Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 30-53, May. 2019, doi:10.25294/auiibfd.559372