The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy

Year 2019, Volume: 19 Issue: 2, 415 - 426, 15.11.2019

Can Tansel Tuğcu , Ayşe Meral Uzun , İlyas Özkök

https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.595213

Abstract

Since it has
complicated and prominent interrelations with another macro and microeconomic
issues, determination of the causes of high level of inflation ranks almost
first among the major goals of economic policy. According to the Triangle Model
that was recently developed by Gordon (1997), inflation stems from three
dynamics called inertia, demand and supply. On the other hand, the Monetarists
and the Structuralists argue that inflation is caused by excessive money supply
and cost/push factors, respectively. In this context, the aim of this study is
to examine the impact of import volume on domestic inflation rate in the
Turkish economy for the period 1961-2017 by utilizing a proper cointegration
technique. Findings illustrated that inflation in Turkey basically stems from
monetary issues and it is import driven, as well. Thus, policy makers had
better take this bilateral structure into account while dealing with general
price level instabilities in the Turkish economy.

Keywords

Inflation, Import, ARDL, Turkish economy

İthalatın enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi için bir ARDL analizi

Abstract

Diğer makro ve mikroekonomik konularla karmaşık ve önemli ilişkilere
sahip olduğundan, yüksek enflasyon düzeyinin sebeplerinin belirlenmesi ekonomi
politikasının ana hedefleri arasında neredeyse ilk sırada yer almaktadır. Son
dönemde Gordon (1997) tarafından geliştirilmiş olan Üçgen Modeline göre enflasyon
atalet, talep ve arz adı verilen üç dinamikten kaynaklanmaktadır. Diğer
taraftan Paracılar ve Yapısalcılar enflasyonun nedeninin sırasıyla aşırı para
arzı ve maliyet arttırıcı faktörler olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın
amacı, uygun bir eşbütünleşme analizi kullanarak, Türkiye ekonomisinde
1961-2017 döneminde ithalat hacminin yurtiçi enflasyon oranı üzerindeki
etkisini incelemektir. Bulgular, Türkiye'de enflasyonun temelde parasal
gelişmelerden kaynaklandığını ve aynı zamanda ithalat tarafından da
yönlendirildiğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, politika yapıcıların Türkiye’de
genel fiyat düzeyi istikrarsızlıkları ile ilgilenirken bu ikili yapıyı dikkate
almaları yararlı olacaktır.

Keywords

Enflasyon, İthalat, ARDL, Türkiye Ekonomisi

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