Year 2019, Volume 19 , Issue 2, Pages 415 - 426 2019-11-15

İthalatın enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi için bir ARDL analizi
The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy

Can Tansel TUĞCU [1] , Ayşe Meral UZUN [2] , İlyas ÖZKÖK [3]


Diğer makro ve mikroekonomik konularla karmaşık ve önemli ilişkilere sahip olduğundan, yüksek enflasyon düzeyinin sebeplerinin belirlenmesi ekonomi politikasının ana hedefleri arasında neredeyse ilk sırada yer almaktadır. Son dönemde Gordon (1997) tarafından geliştirilmiş olan Üçgen Modeline göre enflasyon atalet, talep ve arz adı verilen üç dinamikten kaynaklanmaktadır. Diğer taraftan Paracılar ve Yapısalcılar enflasyonun nedeninin sırasıyla aşırı para arzı ve maliyet arttırıcı faktörler olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın amacı, uygun bir eşbütünleşme analizi kullanarak, Türkiye ekonomisinde 1961-2017 döneminde ithalat hacminin yurtiçi enflasyon oranı üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bulgular, Türkiye'de enflasyonun temelde parasal gelişmelerden kaynaklandığını ve aynı zamanda ithalat tarafından da yönlendirildiğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, politika yapıcıların Türkiye’de genel fiyat düzeyi istikrarsızlıkları ile ilgilenirken bu ikili yapıyı dikkate almaları yararlı olacaktır.

Since it has complicated and prominent interrelations with another macro and microeconomic issues, determination of the causes of high level of inflation ranks almost first among the major goals of economic policy. According to the Triangle Model that was recently developed by Gordon (1997), inflation stems from three dynamics called inertia, demand and supply. On the other hand, the Monetarists and the Structuralists argue that inflation is caused by excessive money supply and cost/push factors, respectively. In this context, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of import volume on domestic inflation rate in the Turkish economy for the period 1961-2017 by utilizing a proper cointegration technique. Findings illustrated that inflation in Turkey basically stems from monetary issues and it is import driven, as well. Thus, policy makers had better take this bilateral structure into account while dealing with general price level instabilities in the Turkish economy.

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Primary Language en
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0001-9204-6361
Author: Can Tansel TUĞCU

Orcid: 0000-0002-8787-8240
Author: Ayşe Meral UZUN

Orcid: 0000-0002-3305-7199
Author: İlyas ÖZKÖK

Dates

Application Date : March 26, 2019
Acceptance Date : July 22, 2019
Publication Date : November 15, 2019

Bibtex @research article { auiibfd595213, journal = {Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi}, issn = {1302-9975}, eissn = {2667-7229}, address = {AKDENİZ ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ DEKANI DUMLUPINAR CAD. ANTALYA}, publisher = {Akdeniz University}, year = {2019}, volume = {19}, pages = {415 - 426}, doi = {10.25294/auiibfd.595213}, title = {The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy}, key = {cite}, author = {Tuğcu, Can Tansel and Uzun, Ayşe Meral and Özkök, İlyas} }
APA Tuğcu, C , Uzun, A , Özkök, İ . (2019). The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy . Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi , 19 (2) , 415-426 . DOI: 10.25294/auiibfd.595213
MLA Tuğcu, C , Uzun, A , Özkök, İ . "The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy" . Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 19 (2019 ): 415-426 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/auiibfd/issue/50262/595213>
Chicago Tuğcu, C , Uzun, A , Özkök, İ . "The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy". Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 19 (2019 ): 415-426
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy AU - Can Tansel Tuğcu , Ayşe Meral Uzun , İlyas Özkök Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.25294/auiibfd.595213 DO - 10.25294/auiibfd.595213 T2 - Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 415 EP - 426 VL - 19 IS - 2 SN - 1302-9975-2667-7229 M3 - doi: 10.25294/auiibfd.595213 UR - https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.595213 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy %A Can Tansel Tuğcu , Ayşe Meral Uzun , İlyas Özkök %T The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy %D 2019 %J Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi %P 1302-9975-2667-7229 %V 19 %N 2 %R doi: 10.25294/auiibfd.595213 %U 10.25294/auiibfd.595213
ISNAD Tuğcu, Can Tansel , Uzun, Ayşe Meral , Özkök, İlyas . "The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy". Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 19 / 2 (November 2019): 415-426 . https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.595213
AMA Tuğcu C , Uzun A , Özkök İ . The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. 2019; 19(2): 415-426.
Vancouver Tuğcu C , Uzun A , Özkök İ . The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. 2019; 19(2): 415-426.
IEEE C. Tuğcu , A. Uzun and İ. Özkök , "The impact of import on inflation: an ARDL analysis for the Turkish Economy", Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 415-426, Nov. 2019, doi:10.25294/auiibfd.595213