Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey's Economic Growth Rates

İbrahim Orkun Oral

doi:10.18037/ausbd.632023

Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey's Economic Growth Rates

Öz

Being one of the macroeconomic indicators, economic growth is a significant indicator, which shows development level of countries and welfare level of people living within the border of a country. Economic growth has a great importance especially for policy makers. Therefore, forecasting economic growth of a country is of vital importance in taking decisions such as long-term investment, employment etc. and developing, regulating and revising the policies of countries. The study aims to compare the selected exponential smoothing methods used in forecasting of Turkey’s economic growth indicators and determine the most appropriate technique. To this end, economic growth rate of Turkey between 1998 and the second quarter of 2018 was addressed and economic growth rate for the third and fourth quarters of 2018 was forecasted depending on the economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2018. Forecasts were carried out by using Winters’ seasonality exponential smoothing method based on the characteristics of time series and model selection criteria and additive Holt-Winters’ seasonality exponential smoothing method in the Cell B-2 of Pegels’ classification. It has been found out that the most appropriate method for the relevant forecasts is the additive Holt-Winters’ seasonality exponential smoothing method. It has been concluded that there would be 11,995% increase in the third quarter and 6,415% increase in the fourth quarter depending on the economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2018.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth,Forecast,Exponential Smoothing Methods,Economic Growth Forecast

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

-

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

İbrahim Orkun Oral

Yayımlanma Tarihi

30 Eylül 2019

Gönderilme Tarihi

5 Mayıs 2019

Kabul Tarihi

13 Eylül 2019

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2019 Cilt: 19 Sayı: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.632023

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA99MP73TX

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Oral, İ. O. (2019). Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey’s Economic Growth Rates. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(3), 275-294. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.632023

AMA

1.Oral İO. Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey’s Economic Growth Rates. AÜSBD. 2019;19(3):275-294. doi:10.18037/ausbd.632023

Chicago

Oral, İbrahim Orkun. 2019. “Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey’s Economic Growth Rates”. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 19 (3): 275-94. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.632023.

EndNote

Oral İO (01 Eylül 2019) Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey’s Economic Growth Rates. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 19 3 275–294.

IEEE

[1]İ. O. Oral, “Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey’s Economic Growth Rates”, AÜSBD, c. 19, sy 3, ss. 275–294, Eyl. 2019, doi: 10.18037/ausbd.632023.

ISNAD

Oral, İbrahim Orkun. “Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey’s Economic Growth Rates”. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 19/3 (01 Eylül 2019): 275-294. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.632023.

JAMA

1.Oral İO. Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey’s Economic Growth Rates. AÜSBD. 2019;19:275–294.

MLA

Oral, İbrahim Orkun. “Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey’s Economic Growth Rates”. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, c. 19, sy 3, Eylül 2019, ss. 275-94, doi:10.18037/ausbd.632023.

Vancouver

1.İbrahim Orkun Oral. Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey’s Economic Growth Rates. AÜSBD. 01 Eylül 2019;19(3):275-94. doi:10.18037/ausbd.632023

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Comparison of the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method with ARIMA Models: Forecasting of GDP per Capita in Five Balkan Countries Members of European Union (EU) Post COVID

Modern Economy

https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2021.1212104

Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey's Economic Growth Rates

Comparison of The Winters’ Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Method With The Pegels’ Classification: Forecasting of Turkey's Economic Growth Rates

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

Kaynak Göster

Cited By

Comparison of the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method with ARIMA Models: Forecasting of GDP per Capita in Five Balkan Countries Members of European Union (EU) Post COVID

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