ABD Ekonomisinde Zamana Göre Değişen NAIRU (1990–2022)

Abstract

Çalışmada ABD ekonomisinde zamana göre değişen enflasyonu hızlandırmayan işsizlik oranı (NAIRU) bulunduğu varsayımından hareketle, sözkonusu hipotez 1990–2022 dönemi için sınanmaktadır. Zamana göre değişen NAIRU hem üç aylık, hem de yıllık enflasyon ve işsizlik verisi kullanılarak, hızlandırmacı Phillips eğrisi ile tahmin edilmektedir. NAIRU’daki düşüş ve yükselmelerin nedenleri verimlilik, verimlilikteki değişimler ve ücret beklentileri çerçevesinde araştırılmaktadır. 2000–2010 arasında verimlilik düşüş eğiliminde iken NAIRU yüzde 5.30’dan, 6.40’a yükselmiş; 2015–2021 arasında ise ekonominin genelinde verimlilik yüzde 1.2’den 2.6’ya yükselmesine rağmen, imalat sanayiindeki verimlilik düşüş göstermiş, buna paralel olarak NAIRU’nun da azalmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca NAIRU’nun verimlilik büyümesindeki değişimlere değil, verimlilikteki büyümenin kendisine duyarlı olduğu ölçümlenmiştir. Araştırmadaki bulgular, uzun dönemli işsizlikteki düşüşün toplam verimlilik artışı ile değil, imalat sanayiindeki verimlilik artışı ile ilgili olduğuna işaret etmektedir. 2000’li yıllarda azalan imalat sanayii payı karşısında milli gelir içindeki payı yüzde 80’lere yükselen hizmetler sektörünün artan payının NAIRU üzerinde yukarı yönde baskıya yolaçtığı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• NAIRU
• İşsizlik
• Phillips eğrisi
• Verimlilik
• Ücret beklentileri

The Time-Varying NAIRU in the US Economy (1990-2022)

Abstract

The study argues that there is time-varying nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, (NAIRU) in the US economy, testing the hypothesis during the 1990–2022 period. Time-varying NAIRU is estimated with both annual and quarterly inflation and unemployment with the accelerationist Phillips curve. Reasons for the rises and falls in NAIRU are discussed with emphasis on productivity, change in productivity and wage aspirations. NAIRU has risen from 5.30 to 6.40 percent between 2000–2010 when productivity is in declining trend; and manufacturing productivity has declined between 2015–2021 in spite of the rise in overall productivity from 1.2 to 2.6 percent, without a fall in the NAIRU. The analysis shows that NAIRU shows comovement with productivity growth rather than change in productivity growth. Results imply that downward dynamic of the NAIRU relates more to productivity rise in the manufacturing sector, rather than total productivity. It seems that rising share of the services sector to over 80 percent with the decline in manufacturing has reflected unfavorably on productivity.

Keywords

• NAIRU
• Unemployment
• Phillips curve
• Productivity
• Wage aspirations

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