Türkiye'de Seçime ve Geleneksel Olmayan Siyasal Faaliyetlere Katılımı Etkileyen Bireysel Seviye Faktörler

Abstract

Türkiye’de seçime katılma ve geleneksel olmayan siyasal faaliyetlere katılma üzerinde etkili olan bireysel seviye faktörler konusundaki bilgimiz sistematik olarak toplanmış mikro seviyedeki verilerin eksikliği nedeniyle sınırlıdır. Bu çalışmada seçime katılım ve geleneksel olmayan katılımla ilişkili bireysel seviye faktörlerin belirlenmesi için Türkiye Değerler Araştırması’nın 1996, 2007 ve 2011 verileri kullanmıştır. Kaynak modeli, mobilizasyon modeli, siyasal güven ve siyasa tercihleri gibi temel açıklayıcı çerçeveler Türkiye örneğinde nicel yöntemler kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Çalışmada karşılaştırılan iki bağımlı değişkenden seçime katılım için lojistik, geleneksel olmayan katılım için doğrusal regresyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Eğitim seviyesi, zaman içinde tutarlı olarak, seçime katılımla negatif, geleneksel olmayan katılımla pozitif ilişkilidir. Siyasal güven, geleneksel olmayan katılımla zaman içinde tutarlı olarak negatif, seçime katılımla bazı yıllarda pozitif ilişkilidir. Dernek üyelikleri, geleneksel olmayan katılımla zaman içinde tutarlı olarak pozitif, seçime katılımla bazı yıllarda pozitif ilişkilidir. Geleceğe yönelik siyasa tercihlerinden, ekonomik istikrar, seçime katılımla 2000’li yıllarda pozitif ilişkiliyken, ifade özgürlüğünün korunması geleneksel olmayan katılımla bütün yıllarda pozitif ilişkilidir. Bulgular, eğitim seviyesi arttıkça ve siyasal güven azaldıkça seçime katılmanın daha az olası, geleneksel olmayan katılımın daha olası hale geldiğini; ekonomik istikrarın ülkenin birincil siyasa hedefi olarak değerlendirilmesinin seçime katılmayı daha olası, ifade özgürlüğünün birincil hedef olarak değerlendirilmesinin geleneksel olmayan katılımı daha olası hale getirdiğini önermektedir.

Keywords

• Türkiye
• Siyasal Katılım
• Seçime Katılım
• Eğitim
• Siyasal Güven

Individual Level Determinants of Electoral Turnout and Unconventional Political Participation in Turkey

Abstract

Our understanding of individual level determinants of turnout and unconventional political participation in Turkey is limited due to lack of systematically collected micro level data. This study uses World Values Survey data on Turkey for years 1996, 2007, and 2011 to determine the factors associated with turnout and unconventional participation. Main explanatory frameworks such as the resource model, mobilization model, political trust, and policy preferences are tested in the Turkish case using quantitative methods. Education is associated negatively with turnout and positively with unconventional participation in all years. Political trust is consistently negatively associated with unconventional participation and positively associated with turnout in some years. Associational memberships are consistently positively associated with unconventional participation while the relationship is weaker for turnout. Among future policy preferences, economic stability is positively associated with turnout in 2007 and 2011, while protection of the freedom of expression is positively associated with unconventional participation in all years. Findings suggest that as education level increases and political trust decreases, turnout is less likely, while unconventional participation is more likely. Indicating economic stability as the principal policy aim increases the likelihood of turnout, while indicating the freedom of expression increases the likelihood of unconventional participation. 

Keywords

• Turkey
• Political Participation
• Turnout
• Education
• Political Trust

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