TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Abstract

Keywords

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TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret açıklarını etkileyen temel faktörleri, maliye, para ve döviz kuru politikası çerçevesinde incelemektir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, esnek döviz kuru rejiminin uygulandığı 2001:3-2009:6 dönemine ait aylık zaman serileri kullanılarak reel bütçe açığı, reel para arzı ve reel efektif döviz kuru endeksinin reel dış ticaret açığı üzerindeki etkileri sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak ekonometrik açıdan incelenmektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre uzun dönemde dış ticaret açığı; bütçe açığından pozitif ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı, para arzından negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı, reel efektif kur endeksinden ise pozitif ve istatistiki açıdan anlamsız olarak etkilenmektedir. Öte yandan kısa dönemli analiz sonuçları, para arzının dış ticaret açığını pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bütçe açığı ve reel efektif kur endeksine ait kısa dönemli analiz sonuçları ise uzun dönemli ilişki sonuçlarıyla paralellik arz etmektedir.

Keywords

• Dış açık, bütçe açığı, para arzı, reel kur, ADRL Yaklaşımı, sınır testi

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