BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye’de 1990 yılının ilk çeyreğinden 2004 yılının ilk çeyreği arasındaki dönemde ihracat ve büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmaktadır. Nedensellik ilişkisinin tahmin edilmesinde vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve koentegrasyon analizinden yararlanılmıştır. Birim kök testleri her serinin seviye değerlerinde durağan olmadığını, serilerin birinci farklarında ise durağanlığın sağlandığını göstermektedir. Koentegrasyon testi sonuçları ihracat, ithalat ve büyüme arasında uzun dönem denge ilişkisinin mevcut olduğunu ve tek bir koentegrasyon vektörü olduğunu göstermektedir. Seriler koentegre olduklarından nedensellik testinin yapılması için vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar ihracat ve büyüme arasında tek yönlü bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu ve bu tek yönlü ilişkinin ihracattan büyümeye doğru olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca koentegrasyon denklemi uzun dönemde ihracatın büyümeyi artırdığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuç ihracatın artırılmasına yönelik politikaların Türkiye’de büyümeyi artırdığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• İhracat, büyüme, koentegrasyon, nedensellik, vektör hata düzeltme modeli

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