Türkiye’deki Çıktı Açıklarının Resesyon Dönemlerinde Karşılaştırılması

Abstract

Etkin para, maliye ve gelir politikaları ekonominin bir çevrimdeki yerinin ancak doğru tahmin edilmesi ile uygulanabilir. Çıktı açığı bir ekonominin döngüdeki yerinin tahmini için önemli bir araçtır. Bu makalede üretim fonksiyonu yöntemi ve çeyrek dönemlik veriler kullanılarak Türkiye ekonomisi için 2000Q1-2013Q4 periyodunda çıktı açığı ölçülmüştür. Çalışmada iki farklı resesyon tanımı ele alınmıştır. İlk olarak resesyon çıktı açığının potansiyel GDP‟ye olan oranının en az iki ardışık çeyrekte negatif değerler alması şeklinde tanımlanmıştır. İkinci olarak, GDP büyümesinin en az iki ardışık çeyrekte negatif olmasını içeren NBER tanımı kullanılmıştır. Çıktı açığı tanımının kullanıldığı ilk kriz tanımına göre dış kaynaklı kriz daha kısa sürmüş fakat daha maliyetli olmuştur. NBER tanımına göre ise dış kaynaklı kriz daha uzun sürmüş ve daha maliyetli olmuştur.

Keywords

• Potansiyel GDP
• Çıktı açığı
• Üretim fonksiyonu yöntemi
• Resesyon
• Türkiye

A Comparative Study of Turkey's Output Gaps in the Recessions

Abstract

An effective set of monetary, fiscal, and income policies can only be formulated on the basis of a correct estimation of the position of an economy in a cycle. Output gap estimation provides an important tool for predicting the position of the economy. In this paper, we measure output gap for the Turkish Economy for the period between 2000Q1 and 2013Q4, using production function approach and quarterly data. We utilize two definitions of recession: According to the first definition, we refer a period as recession if output gap as a percent of potential GDP takes negative values for at least two consecutive quarters, while NBER definition refers to a period as recession if we observe at least two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth rates. On the basis of first definition we find that the imported crisis lasts shorter but costs more in terms of output gap; while on the basis of NBER definition, the imported crisis lasts longer and costs more in terms of negative real GDP growth

Keywords

• Potential GDP
• Output gap
• Production function approach
• Recession
• Turkey

References

1. Alp, H., Y. S. Başkaya, M. Kılınç, and C. Yüksel (2011), “Estimating Optimal Hodrick-Prescott Filter Smoothing Parameter for Turkey”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 26: 9-23.
2. Altug, S., Filiztekin A. and Pamuk S. (2008), “Sources of Long-Term Economic Growth for Turkey, 1880-2005”, European Review of Economic History, 12 (3): 393-430.
3. Artus, J. R. (1977), “Measures of Potential Output in Manufacturing for Eight Industrial Countries, 1955-78.”, IMF Staff Papers, 24, (1): 1-35.
4. Bukhari, S. H. A. S. and S. U. Khan (2008), “Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches.”, State Bank of Pakistan, Working Paper Series, No. 24.
5. Cicek, D. and C. Elgin (2001), “Accounting for Turkish Business Cycles”, İktisat Işletme ve Finans, 26 (309): 09-32.
6. Congdon, T. (2008),“Two Concepts of the Output Gap”, World Economics, 9 (1): 47-175.
7. Congressional Budget Office (2001), “CBO’s Method for Estimating Potential Output: An Update”, http://www.cbo.gov.
8. Dore, M. H. I. (1995), The Macro Dynamics of Business Cycles: A Comparative Evaluation, Blackwell Publishers, Massachusetts.

9. Epstein N. and C. Macchiarelli (2010), “Estimating Poland’s Potential Output: A Production Function Approach”, IMF Working Paper No.15.
10. Friedman, M. (1968),“The Role of Monetary Policy”, American Economic Review, 58 (March): 1-17.
11. Furceri, Davide and Annabelle Mouragne (2009), “The Effect of Financial Crises on Potential Output: New Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries,” OECD Economies Department Working Papers No. 669.
12. Gerlach, P. (2011), “The Global Output Gap: Measurement Issues and Regional Disparities”, Bank of International Settlements Quarterly Review, June.
13. Gibbs, D. (1995),“Potential Output: Concepts and Measurement”, Labor Market Bulletin, 1: 72-115.
14. Gollin, D. (2002),“Getting Income Shares Right”, Journal of Political Economy, 110 (2): 458-474.
15. Goyal, A., and S. Arora (2013), “Inferring India’s Potential Growth and Policy Stance”, Journal of Quantities Economics, 1 (1-2): 60-83.
16. İsmihan M. and Metin-Ozcan K. (2006), “Sources of Growth in the Turkish Economy 1960-2004”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 241: 74-86.
17. Johnson, C. A. (2013),“Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic”, IMF Working Paper, WP/13/145.
18. Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1972), “Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis”, in Otto Eckstein (ed.), The Econometrics of Price Determination Conference (Washington, D. C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System): 50-59.
19. Odor, L., and J. Kucserova (2014), “Finding Yeti: More Robust Estimates of Output Gap in Slovakia”, National Bank of Slovakia Working Paper, WP 1/2014.
20. Okun, A. M. (1962), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance”, in Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section (Washington D.C.: American Statistical Association): 98-103.
21. Phillips, A. W. (1958), “The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate of Change on Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957”, Economica, 25 (100): 283-299.
22. Plosser, C. I., and G. W. Schwert (1979), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance”, Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 10: 179-186.
23. Pybus, T. (2011), “Estimating the UK’s Historical Output Gap”, Office for Budget Responsibility Working Paper, 1.
24. Razin, A. and P. Loungani (2005), “Globalization and Inflation-Output Tradeoff”, NBER Working Paper Series 11641.
25. Taylor, J. B. (1993), “Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers): 195-214.
26. Titan, E., and V. Georgescu. (2013), “Investigating Macroeconomic Stability Using the Output Gap”, Romanian Statistical Review, 2: 45-59.
27. Üngör, Murat (2012), “A Production Function Method of Estimating the Output Gap”, The Central Bank of Turkey, Economic Notes, 12/19.